Penn State Predictions: Games 5-8

Earlier this month, we took a look at Penn State’s first four games (story here). To the dismay of some readers, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 after their first four games and are now looking to continue their success as they begin conference play.

Week 5: vs. Northwestern Wildcats

The first Big Ten test of the season for the Nittany Lions will be a familiar foe but one that they did not see last season. The last time the two programs met, Matt McGloin lead a fourth quarter comeback that saw the Nittany Lions score 22 in their final quarter for a 39-28 win.

With McGloin long gone, it will be Hackenberg’s first crack at the Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats. The Wildcats are coming off a disappointing 2013 campaign which saw the program go 5-7 including 0-5 in the Big Ten. The one thing that Northwestern does have going for them is the return of quarterback Trevor Seimian who threw for 3,717 yards and 20 TDs while only throwing 13 interceptions.

Will Penn State’s defense be able to withhold Northwestern’s offense? Last season, the Wildcats averaged 26.2 points a game, which was 84th best last season in the nation. Penn State’s defense gave up an average of 26.2 points. So pretty even when it comes to that comparison.

Offensively, Penn State has the better raw talent but will that talent develop quick enough to make the big impact that the freshman will have to make compared to Northwestern who has little less raw talent but is more developed. Offensively, the teams are about equal.

Defensively, Northwestern may have the edge here as Penn State has lacked depth on defense for a few seasons now and that depth problem has yet to be solved. The secondary is still shaky for the Nittany Lions. Defensively, Northwestern has the overwhelming edge.

So who will win? Well, while it may be a tough one to pull out, Christian Hackenberg has been known for stepping up in the fourth quarter and a fourth quarter or overtime winning drive may be in order for this one. Final Score: Penn State 34 – Northwestern 27

Week 7: at Michigan Wolverines

After a bye week in Week 6, James Franklin and company fly out to Ann Arbor, Michigan for their week seven matchup with the Michigan Wolverines.  Last time these two legendary programs met, it ended up being possibly one of the best thrillers in recent memory for Penn State fans as the Nittany Lions pulled out a four overtime victory that was originally fueled by a final minute scoring drive by Christian Hackenberg.

Devin Gardner and the rest of Big House will be looking for revenge and there’s no better way to have it then on national television. The first of two back-to-back primetime games for Penn State this season will be a focal point of determining in which direction the season and program is headed.

The game also represents James Franklin’s first “BIG” game as Penn State’s head coach. This is one game besides Ohio State that almost every Penn State fan has circled on their calendar. Michigan was an up and down team last season, almost blowing a few games before ultimately losing their first game to Penn State last season which made the loss a little less shocking. This year, Michigan’s toughest game before Penn State is arguably Notre Dame who they face in week two.

The Wolverines’ defense is going to be well improved from last years, as the Wolverines welcome five-star recruit and consensus top 10 recruit cornerback Jabrill Peppers to the secondary. It’s also another year under the belt for cornerback Ross Douglas. In one way you can almost say that this game for Penn State is similar to that of the game against Rutgers. Like Penn State has done to Rutgers, Michigan has recently been able to take players away from the Nittany Lions with Jabrill Peppers, Ross Douglas (decommitted following sanctions) and OL Grant Newsome.

This game will be a huge test for Hackenberg to see his development as a quarterback especially under pressure, he’s on the biggest stage in Ann Arbor and will have the eyes of the football world on him.

Penn State may have the edge offensively mostly due to Hackenberg and the raw talent that the offense possesses especially at the tight end position (Adam Breneman, Kyle Carter, and Jesse James). Michigan has talent but Devin Gardner is known for being inconsistent and for not always stepping it up when needed.

Defensively, the edge goes to Michigan by a good 100 yards. While Penn State has playmakers, Michigan’s defense has a secondary that has a few players with NFL potential. The secondary will be tested by Hackenberg, and he will be tested by the secondary. Penn State’s defense will be able to withstand most of Michigan’s onslaught however a lack of depth and especially speed in the middle of the field for Penn State creates a great concern.

While Hackenberg has already crushed Michigan’s hearts once, it will be extremely hard for the Nittany Lions to pull off this upset in Ann Arbor. With easily a 110,000 fans packing the Big House, Hackenberg will play in front of the biggest crowd in his life on national television. In the end, Michigan’s defense may just be too much for Penn State to get by. Final Score: Michigan 34 – Penn State 24

Week 9 vs. Ohio State

As Michigan will look for a result against Penn State, the Nittany Lions will be looking for a result against arguably their biggest rival in Ohio State. Last season, Ohio State demolished the Penn State defense putting up 63 points while allowing a mere 14.  Penn State will have an extra week to study the Ohio State offense and defense hoping to upset the Buckeyes at Beaver Stadium.

Therefore it’s safe to say for Penn State, “this one is personal.” James Franklin will not need to find extra motivation for his team for this matchup as there should be enough to go around. Penn State’s offense was kept in check for most of last season’s game only gaining 357 yards. The defense was simply manhandled by Ohio State’s offense allowing 686 total yards which 408 came on the ground. The only sense of scoring last season for Penn State was wide receiver Allen Robinson, who has now moved on to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Ohio State’s defense is still one of the premier defenses in the country and will be extremely hard to score on even by the best defenses. Urban Meyer showed no letting down last season in Ohio State’s win and probably has a similar plan this season as the Buckeyes travel to Beaver Stadium in State College, PA. Penn State last season played okay at home offensively and had a few scares especially when they took on the University of Illinois. Therefore, the Ohio State defense shouldn’t have that hard of a problem to deal with as even if Penn State’s receivers are developed, the Ohio State defense will be hard to top.

Ohio State’s offense is also a noteworthy asset of the Buckeyes, however the loss of Carlos Hyde maybe felt on the ground, the Buckeyes still have QB Braxton Miller to pass the ball. Miller has dominated Penn State the past two seasons and there are no signs that Penn State will have an answer this season for the dual threat quarterback. The safest thing for Penn State fans to do will be to shield their eyes because this one will get ugly extremely fast. Final Score: Ohio State 49 – Penn State 24

Week 10 vs. Maryland

While it may not seem as a game that could be a potential loss, Penn State must come out firing on all cylinders against Maryland as it has a potential to be a classic trap game for the Nittany Lions. The Nittany Lions will be coming off two demoralizing losses to the hands of their two biggest rivals. Maryland, will be looking to be making a splash in their first season in the Big Ten and how better to do it than upset Penn State at Beaver Stadium.

Last season, Maryland went 7-6 but 1-5 in conference play. Last season, the Maryland offense was adequate having some bright flashes at times but nothing too spectacular. Their best quarterback was C.J Brown who threw for 2,242 yards and 14 touchdowns to go along with 7 interceptions. The edge offensively goes to Penn State.

The Terrapins defense allowed an average of 25.3 points a game last season in the ACC and will probably have a hard time at keeping that number below 27 while in the Big Ten. Their best defensive player Cole Farrand returns for his senior season having a tremendous season last year which saw him have a combined 23 tackles in a 40-27 loss to Clemson.

Maryland’s offense is adequate and their defense may not be ready to face some of the offenses that they will face in the Big Ten. Christian Hackenberg will be looking to get back on track against Maryland, and will come out firing. Final Score: Penn State 24 – Maryland 13

There you go, after eight games, the Nittany Lions take a 6-2 record into their final four games of the season.