“Defense wins championships.”
As a sports fan, how many times have you heard that phrase? Have you heard it so many times that it’s almost TOO cliche. The cliche absolutely has merit. The San Antonio Spurs won with defense. The Seattle Seahawks won with defense. The Kansas City Royals won (the American League) with defense and pitching.
The unfortunate reality of today’s NBA, however, communicates the opposite. Defense doesn’t put fans in the seats. Defense doesn’t garner the “oohs” and “aahs” like the guy scoring 20-30 points a night. Michael Levin of Liberty Ballers probably summed it up best on a recent episode of the Rights to Ricky Sanchez podcast — the BEST Sixers podcast out there, by the way:
“Nobody cares about defense.”
Levin’s comment is more or less true. Today’s NBA fan isn’t too enthralled about defense. There’s a reason why Lebron James, not Tony Allen, is one of the leagues premier stars. This same reason would lead you to believe that our own Nerlens Noel won’t win this year’s Rookie of the Year award over Minnesota Timberwolves guard Andrew Wiggins.
The analytics community would beg to differ, and since I’m both a member of the analytics community and a giant homer, my vote goes to Noel.
There has been a loose precedent set already to suggest that members of the sports voting community are taking analytics more to heart when choosing who wins awards. In 2000, there was a heated debate over the American League Cy Young winner. The two prime candidates were Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners and CC Sebathia of the New York Yankees. Despite having more wins, Sebathia lost the AL Cy Young to Hernandez because “King Felix” was better in just about every other statistical category (ERA, WHIP — walks plus hits per innings pitched, strikeouts, complete games, WAR — wins above replacement player).
It was a signal that the tides may be turning in the sports voting world. This year could mark another one if Noel wins the Rookie of the Year award. Wiggins does have a higher points per game number than Noel, but Noel bests Wiggins in just about any other category that matters.
When it comes to shooting, Wiggins gets more points than Nerlens, but it comes at a bit of a price. Wiggins 15.7 ppg average is decent for a rookie, but he shoots 43-percent from the field and 32-percent from three. That could be a product of bad luck or bad shot selection, but however you defend it, combine that with his FT% (74-percent off close to five FTA per game), and you get a true shooting percentage (TS%) of percentage points above 50-percent — .507 to be exact.
Look at Noel. He averages 9.5 points per game, but he does so very efficiently shooting close to 46-percent from the field. His free throw percentage (61-percent) does hurt his TS% dropping it to just under 49-percent (.489), but since the All-Star break and trade deadline, we’ve seen his offensive numbers skyrocket to where you’re seeing what Noel could be offensively.
January: 8.6 ppg, 46-percent FG, 48-percent TS
February: 10.7 ppg, 47-percent FG, 55-percent TS … (Noel’s FT% also shot up to 75-percent.)
March: 13.2 ppg, 50-percent FG, 53-percent TS
Yes, Wiggins does have a higher win share total in terms of offense. His 1.3 OWS (offensive win-shares) are better than Noel’s -0.2, but we’ve seen recently that Nerlens is starting to put his offensive game together.
Last Friday night, Noel sprung into Spring with a career-high 23 points shooting 64-percent from the field. I don’t mind telling you that it was definitely a sight to watch in person, and I feel very privileged to have been there. Noel’s mid-range game is coming slowly, but he is starting to hit that shot with a little more frequency, and there’s a new confidence when he takes that shot. Noel doesn’t seem as timid as he was earlier in the year.
Timid is definitely NOT something that Nerlens Noel is on the defensive end. The guy is a freak athlete, and we knew that coming into this season. No one predicted he would be THIS GOOD, though. There are people in some circles (probably mostly Timberwolves beat writers) that claim that Wiggins is just as good defensively as Noel.
That … could not be any more false, guys. I’m sorry.
Noel has 126 blocks this season compared to Wiggins’s 40. That’s not a surprise, but here’s what will drop your jaw. Noel has 119 steals compared to Wiggins’s 73. Keep in mind that Wiggins is a guard and Noel is a center. (I’ll pause while you think about that and put your eyes back in your heads.)
As a rookie, Noel is top-10 in the NBA in blocks (currently 7th) and steals (currently tied in 10th with Atlanta’s Paul Milsap). Wiggins doesn’t sniff the top-25 in either of those categories, so the idea that he is comparable to Noel defensively is laughable. There isn’t one defensive statistic that would even support such a claim. Noel has more blocks, more steals — as a center, mind you — opponents shooting against Noel have a lower FG%, and Noel’s DWS (defensive win shares) nearly quadruple that of Wiggins (3.8 vs. 0.2 DWS).
Wiggins may be the player that appears in multiple All-Star games for his offensive numbers, but this year, right now … Noel is the Rookie of the Year. The only statistic that doesn’t lend itself to help his case is points per game. That’s the only one. Everything else favors Noel including value over replacement player (VORP) — Nerlens 1.3 vs. Wiggins -0.2 — and total win shares — Nerlens 3.2 vs. Wiggins at 1.5.
There are literally only two reasons Noel won’t win Rookie of the Year. One is the simplest. Noel doesn’t score, and in a league driven by offense, not being able to score kind of hurts your ability to get some accolades. Noel may never win an MVP award, but could he win Defensive Player of the Year or 1st Team All-NBA Defense? Absolutely.
The other reason is more of a personal conspiracy theory. As Sixers fans, we all know about the NBA’s position regarding tanking in an effort to rebuild. This is the team’s second year in, and while there has been progress made, the witch hunters are always out in full force and their comments are never ignored.
Sacramento Kings coach George Karl said that what is happening here shouldn’t be called “tanking”. It should be called “destruction”, and that the Sixers are at least three to five years away from being respectful. Karl and his Kings proceeded to lose to the Sixers 114-107 that same week.
Detroit Pistons coach and GM Stan Van Gundy told people at the Sloan Conference that the Sixers are “embarrassing”, and “if you’re putting that roster on the floor, you’re doing everything to try to lose.” That may be true, Stan, but there’s one team we haven’t lost against on a regular basis — your Pistons. We’re 3-1 against you, buddy. Have a Coke and a smile.
I won’t even get into the vitriol spewed from Grantland’s Andrew Sharp. I’ll simply ask you to direct your inquiries at Michael Levin. His account of Sharp’s dribbles are a lot funnier than mine can ever be.
My point and theory is that the NBA has become so anti-tanking and anti-the Sixers plan that they won’t give Noel the Rookie of the Year award simply because they don’t want to positively acknowledge anything the Sixers are doing. Noel winning the award wouldn’t be directly saying that what the Sixers works, but it does on an indirect level. Other teams in a similar situation may see that and go down a similar path.
**SIDE NOTE** Say whatever you want about how the Sixers are being constructed (or destroyed if you’re George Karl), but if you say that and DON’T mention the Knicks or Lakers, then I’ll simply wave you by and say “move along” because you’re argument will hold no water with me.
That theory is about as credible as any theory on the JFK assassination these days, but it’s definitely something that I’m thinking about if Noel doesn’t win the award.
In this day and age of the NBA, it is true. Defense wins championships, but scoring makes you popular. Wouldn’t it be great if once, just once, defense could net Noel a great individual championship. It would be something he earned. It would be something he deserves, and all of the numbers support him.
Except the one that would make him popular, but if you ask any Sixers fan, Noel is already pretty damn popular.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
