The draft is a hop and a skip away from being here. The Eagles have all the ammunition they will need to fill whatever roles they can with whatever talent they can, but the fact remains that the vast majority of the roster is already filled out. Depth at a couple positions will be necessary, but the chances that the Eagles draft a starter in the up-coming draft is very slim, since Marcus Mariota is simply too good, the safety class is pretty weak outside of Landon Collins, and any wide receiver drafted would have to beat Riley Cooper or Josh Huff (easier said than done). At the end of the day, drafting a player that will have the same or a similar impact that Jordan Matthews had last year isn’t a good idea, although always a pleasant surprise.
Keeping all this is mind, who will be the Eagles statistical leaders for next season? A brand new offense will be taking the field and the defense just refueled as well with a couple new faces taking on the responsibilities of some very reliable veterans that Eagles fans have come to expect good things from over the years. The predictions I make here include some surprises and some statistics that no one pays much attention to unless you are a true football fan. Also, excluding injuries in a game like football is like ignoring the variable in an algebraic equation so don’t be surprised if the numbers may be a little low for some players and higher for others. Check these out.
{Offense}
Passing Yards – Sam Bradford?: 2,800 yards
Passing Touchdowns – Sam Bradford?: 17 touchdowns
Interceptions – Mark Sanchez: 9 interceptions
I have a bit of a surprise here. Sam Bradford has proven that he is capable of throwing some good routes and making some good reads in his short career. He has not proven that he can stay on the field though and I’m willing to bet that Bradford misses at least four games this season with some kind of knee swelling or simple injury that will allow Mark Sanchez to step in and make his money. Sanchez isn’t as good a quarterback as Bradford was pre-injury, but he is good enough to step in without Chip Kelly having to change the system too much. Sanchez will throw his share of picks, but he will lead this fast-paced offense to enough points to be competitive. Sanchez will lead the team in picks but he COULD lead in a lot more than that if Bradford can’t get it together.
Rushing Yards – Demarco Murray: 1,050 yards
Rushing Touchdowns – Demarco Murray: 10 TD’s
Yards Per Carry – Ryan Matthews: 4.9 YPC
Fumbles – Demarco Murray: 4 FUM
Running the ball is going to be essential to this team’s success, regardless of who the quarterback is. Chip Kelly knew what he was doing when he signed Murray AND Matthews because they are going to need to each other in order to stay healthy and replacing someone as multi-dimensional and durable as McCoy won’t be easy. Sproles won’t see many rushing attempts this season, but his ability on draws, screens, and other passing routes will be utilized on a team that fits so many plays into a single game. Also, having a back like Sproles in ideal when your starting running back and his back-up are considered injury risks. Murray is being payed to play the entire season but the chances of him doing that are slim to none. He plays 13 games this year and the Matthews signing will pay dividends.
Receptions – Zach Ertz: 70 rec
Receiving Yards – Jordan Matthews: 950 yards
Yards Per Reception – Josh Huff: 18.3 YPC
Receiving Touchdowns – Riley Cooper?: 8 TD’s
Yards After The Catch – Darren Sproles: 350 YAC
Drops – Riley Cooper: 9 drops
Targets – Jordan Matthews: 110 T
I’m sure any football fan would look at this list and literally laugh while simultaneously calling me an idiot. I don’t blame them either. The absence of Jeremy Maclin throws the balance of the WR corps off its mark (its amazing how one player does that). Matthews proved he belongs in this league and I think that another year as a second option and slot receiver would do him wonders but what do you do when he is suddenly the most talented receiver on the team? Opposing defenses would put their best corner on him and his production could be stunted rather quickly. Riley Cooper STILL has to prove he can get open on this team without Desean Jackson and Chip Kelly is really depending on Josh Huff to take a huge step forward as he will now get his first real opportunity to contribute offensively. Expecting too much from Miles Austin would be a mistake at this point in time although he should be expected to produce modestly in a system like this one. So here is a shot in the dark. With Maclin gone, Ertz steps into the fold as a slot guy more often now that Jordan is on the outside and the match-up problems he causes there could result in Ertz becoming the Eagles true first option, kind of like Jimmy Graham was for Brees in New Orleans (and no, I’m not projecting that kind of production from Ertz, so relax). This gives Brent Celek a chance to increase his passing game production as well.
Offensive Line Play – Top 6
Assuming Evan Mathis doesn’t get traded during this year’s draft and the Eagles only have one guard position to replace among the starters, the Eagles offensive line will remain a strength for this team, at least heading into next season. This team isn’t loaded with first round draft picks like the Cowboys are sporting, but this line is no slouch by any means. The left side of the offensive line is, arguably, the best in the entire league with Pro-Bowl and All-Pro talents Jason Peters, Evan Mathis, and Jason Kelce. Running lanes usually open regularly on this line and the pocket is usually pretty clean, for the most part, as well. Depth issues and long term success is still a question mark with two aging Pro-Bowlers, but at this point, baring significant injuries, the offensive line should dominate once again for this Eagles team.
{Defense}
Tackles – Mychal Kendricks: 100 solo; 25 assisted
Tackles For A Loss – Fletcher Cox: 8 TFL
Sacks – Brandon Graham: 9 sacks
Pressures – Flectcher Cox: 12
Interceptions – Malcolm Jenkins & CB2: 3 ints
Passes Defensed (Deflected) – Byron Maxwell: 8 PD’s
Forced Fumbles – Mychal Kendricks: 3 FF
Fumble Recoveries – Kiko Alonzo: 4 FR
Downs Played – Malcolm Jenkins: 1,000
The projected statistics here show more than just a couple new contributors. They tell a pretty interesting narrative as well. For the first time in two years, Demeco Ryans won’t play the most snaps on the team, thanks to the depth at the position. I don’t believe that Conner Barwin will lead the team in sacks because the league has been put on notice and teams will not be passing the ball nearly as much as they have before against the Eagles notoriously bad passing defense (this is also a projection). Brandon Graham has been productive in his limited playing time in the past and his increased playing time in the future will allow him to produce more but nothing like the numbers Barwin posted last season. Fletcher Cox is going prove to be as dominant as he ever was and lead the team in quarterback disruptions (watch the Thanksgiving day game against the Cowboys for reference). Byron Maxwell will lead the team in pass deflections but interceptions will come at a premium for him as he will be facing the receivers that Richard Sherman faced when he was in Seattle. He will definitely get beat deep a fair amount of times but he is definitely NOT Bradley Fletcher by any stretch of the imagination. Kiko Alonzo, pre-injury, was a fast and instinctive linebacker that found the ball quite often as a rookie. Assuming his instincts haven’t diminished at all, he will definitely fall on a fair amount of country and city balls (as Chip Kelly once called fumbles). The amount of downs played by the defense will not decrease this year, although it would be a blessing if it did. However, Malcolm Jenkins will discover what it means to truly lack depth at the position as he will be the last player that Billy Davis wants off the field. Demeco Ryans will not take on a roll that he has never played before as he will be better suited to play 2-down defense as a run defender that is capable of defending the pass fairly adequately in a pinch. Kiko will take over nickel and dime packages from here on out. Also, for all those people who think the Eagles defense will be a better version of the team that they were last year, I agree with that idea, but don’t think that the defense will score 5+ touchdowns this season. Not gonna happen (even though I would love for lightning to strike twice).
{Special Teams}
Made Field Goals – Cody Parkey: 36 FGM
Punting Net Average – Donnie Jones: 39.7 YPP
Punt Return Yards – Darren Sproles: 388 yards
Kick Return Yards – Darren Sproles: 600 yards
Attempted field goals are irrelevant for kickers unless they are making less than 85% of all their kicks. Parkey proved to be unconscious at times last season and reminded fans what it was like to have an automatic kicker on the team that isn’t named David Akers. Donnie Jones had productive year, once again, for the special teams unit but if you were to ask him or special teams coordinator, Dave Fipp, there are definitely some things he has to work on. Darren Sproles will return to his full time returning duties in the punting game and he will now take on kick return duties because of Josh Huff’s new challenge to produce offensively. Huff will need all the concentration on his craft that he can get and having a back like Sproles allows the Eagles to be flexible.
{Conclusion}
Keeping all of these projections in mind, it would still be tough to then project the Eagles with a strong record in a top heavy NFC. The NFL will be releasing a schedule sometime within the next week as well so strength of schedule will play a large factor. However, based on numbers alone, the Eagles do not seem like they will be able to contend next season unless all injury prone players gain the ability to play 16 games in a stroke of luck. The Cowboys will be ready to go whether they have a strong running game or not as long as Tony Romo is their quarterback and the Giants, hoping that Victor Cruz will heal in time for at least one preseason game, will be sporting one of the better wide receiving duos in the NFL. Sleeping on the Redskins, at this point, would also be a large mistake as their only issue as of right now is quarterback play. If RGIII or, possibly Mariota, can get that offense together, the Eagles may be in for 6 of the toughest games they have had to play in a couple years.
This is going to be Chip Kelly’s 3rd season in the NFL and its definitely going to be his most telling one. Questions regarding whether his system is good enough to be productive against playoff teams will need to be answered this season, especially after being offensively embarrassed against Seattle last season and defensively embarrassed by Green Bay before that. Having a question mark at quarterback for this season is also not helping either of those situations but a stronger core of overall talent on the roster will definitely make a visible difference. Still, talent will never matter in a league where effort and results are the most valued commodities. Never before has so much talent been stacked in the NFC East like it will be this year so production on both sides of the ball is going to be crucial. Overall, the Eagles have the ability to be a strong 11-5 team, but realistically, they will be hard pressed to reach the 9-win mark this season. I would love to be the optimist in a situation like this but the cynical/realist side of me won’t allow that to happen. Lets hope I’m wrong for the sake of the team.
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