College football is completely predictable. We know exactly what’s going to happen. We know who will be in the playoffs, we know who the Heisman winner will be, and we know who the eventual National Champion is going to be.
At least that’s what we tell ourselves while doing preseason polls, rankings, and predictions.
In reality, we know nothing.
Southern Cal was supposed to be primed to make another run. Georgia was supposed to have the team to give Mark Richt validation. Michigan was supposed to be rebuilding with Harbaugh.
Well. . . we were wrong. I was wrong. And welcome to college football six weeks into the season.
College football compares to pregnancy, seriously hear me out and try not to laugh at my comparison.
Thanks to our friends at womenshealth.gov, I was able to pull out some general summaries of each trimester.
The First Trimester
“During the first trimester, your body undergoes many changes. Hormonal changes affect almost every organ system in your body. These changes can trigger symptoms even in the very first weeks of pregnancy.”
Now, my summary for college football.
“During the first trimester, your conference will undergo many changes. These changes affect almost everyone’s predictions, including those of elite college football minds. These changes can trigger poll changes as early as the first week.”
Okay, it’s a tough comparison in a way. But in another, it’s spot on.
The first five-to-six weeks of the season (depending on the team) are going to give us a clear picture of our teams. Things start off swimmingly, you are full of excitement. A new baby for parents, a chance at a national title for CFB fans. But there are many unexpected things that pop up. Be it Utah’s rise to prominence, the same can be said for Michigan. On the flip side, the morning sickness can occur. The Bulldogs surely didn’t foresee a loss to Alabama, but Nick Chubb suffering a horrendous injury, and then on top of that losing to Tennessee? Oh man.
There are two distinct first trimesters on display.
The first are the teams that are having a delightful surprise. Utah, Michigan, Clemson, LSU, Florida, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and even Iowa.
These teams had fan bases that thought they would be good, but there was hesitation in each fan base. The first five or six weeks now have these fanbases in a full uproar.
The other trimester was that of Georgia, USC, Arizona State, and I’ll even lump Alabama and Ohio State in as well.
For the first three, they have all had disappointing starts. They all had envisioned a bowl game with a little more importance than the Capital One Bowl, but now it looks like what they’ll be lucky to make it to. For Alabama and Ohio State, you see the two powerhouses.
‘Bama lost to Ole Miss, but is on the rebound. Ohio State is undefeated, still planted at the top, but most fans can admit that the team has not been as great as they’d hoped. The difference between the first three and the latter two is that ‘Bama and the Buckeyes still have a clear line of sight to the big dance.
With all of the other teams taking a seat on the edges of one of these two trimesters, most know now if they can be excited for the rest of the season or not. Your bed is almost always made at this point.
Second Trimester
According to women’s health, the second trimester summaries best as follows.
“Most women find the second trimester of pregnancy easier than the first. But it is just as important to stay informed about your pregnancy during these months.”
Now for college football.
“Most teams find the second trimester of the season easier than the first. But it is just as important to stay informed about your team during these months. The first trimester set the tone for the season, now you know to plan for a playoff or go ahead and plan a new family vacation at New Years.”
See, we are now entering the territory that will be known as the proving ground. Ohio State has yet to play a “tough team” they’ll get that as conference play has now started. Alabama faltered, then rebounded, now they have the rest of the SEC West to run through.
As a fan your team has already let you know who they are. For a Georgia fan, the season is pretty much a wash. Sure, they’ll go to a nice bowl and win a meaningless trophy, but that’s not the goal, is it?
But for a Michigan fan who came into this season just excited for the future, it appears as if the future is already here. Those fans can go ahead and start the smack talk back up and set sights on Michigan State and Ohio State.
Here are the guidelines for most teams. If you have two (bad) losses or more, you can go ahead and plan for a family vacation. If you have less than two losses, the excitement should begin to mount at this point.
The Third Trimester
Women’s Health says the following.
“You’re in the home stretch! Some of the same discomforts you had in your second trimester will continue. Plus, many women find breathing difficult and notice they have to go to the bathroom even more often. This is because the baby is getting bigger, and it is putting more pressure on your organs. Don’t worry, your baby is fine, and these problems will lessen once you give birth.”
Okay, (remember, no snickering at my comparison) here’s CFB’s final trimester.
“You’re in the home stretch! Some of the same discomforts your team has been having will continue: close games, injuries, and bad play calling. Plus many fan bases will find breathing difficult when the kicker is on the field for a game-winning field goal in the final seconds. You may notice nausea from all of this. This is only because the season is nearing its end; the playoff is in sight. This is putting more pressure on your coaches and team. Don’t worry, (actually do worry) your team is ready to go.”
Once we get to the final two weeks of the regular season, it’ll play out like it’s the postseason. Ohio State has already circled the final two weeks, Michigan State, and Michigan. TCU has its eyes locked on Baylor to close the season out. And of course, all of those rivalry games. But don’t worry, right? All of the other games have prepared you for this. Now is when the worrying is at its highest point. Can your team finish? That question will remain until the playoff teams are announced.
Okay, so my comparison is complete. I hope it made sense. We are now entering that second trimester. The next few weeks are pivotal. Can your team put up or shut up in conference play? The cards are down. Make the push stay relevant at the end of the year.
For my first trimester wrap up, here are my playoff teams, complete with projected finishing record.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (13-0) B1G Champion
I have had Michigan State picked from the beginning of the year to win this conference. However, I just don’t see it happening. They do not have a single impressive win on the schedule. The last two weeks they’ve played one possession football with Purdue and Rutgers. This week against Michigan will be Sparty’s shot to prove that they can upset OSU. OSU hasn’t been impressive in its own right, but I give them the nod because of Urban Meyer.
2. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) Big 12 Champion
I am still sticking with TCU. They haven’t looked as good as last year, but that’s just because of expectations. They aren’t my National Championship team because I think they lose in the playoff. But I still believe they beat Baylor to end the season undefeated.
3. Clemson Tigers (13-0) ACC Champion
With an unimpressive schedule ahead, they just cannot pull a Clemson. They’ll be fine if they play the way they have in the first five games. Deshaun Watson is a stud; he leads this team to glory.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) SEC Champion
I wanted to pick LSU. But at the end of the day I think that team suffers one, if not two, losses in the SEC. They’re good, but I still have my reservations about them. Alabama has proven that it knows how to get to Atlanta. With Ole Miss already losing once, another loss and ‘Bama won’t let another SEC Championship opportunity pass.
‘Bama over OSU.
Clemson over TCU.
‘Bama over Clemson.
Heisman Race
*Note, we witnessed the first catastrophic injury of the Heisman race when Nick Chubb went down early last week to Tennessee.
1. Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU 20-30, 301 Yards, 2 TD – 2 INT
On The Year: 139-218 (64%), 2,103 Yards, 21 TD – 5 INT
Boykin didn’t have a fantastic week. Actually, it was a bad week. But TCU escaped with a win late against K-State. The biggest savior in the game outside of the win was Boykin’s ground attack. Boykin rushed for 124 yards and a pair of touchdowns on only 11 carries. He remains atop my ballot.
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU 20 CAR, 158 Yards, 1 TD
On The Year: 119 CAR, 1,022 Yards, 12 TD
Fournette had a terrible week. . . compared to what we are used to seeing. But he wasn’t going to bust over 200 every week realistically. He’s still a freak despite not even rushing for the most yards on his team against the Game Cocks. He’s leading the nation in yards and touchdowns if he continues this pace and LSU continues winning he could leap from Boykin.
3. Derrick Henry, RB, BAMA 27 CAR, 95 Yards, 1 TD
On The Year: 120 CAR, 665 Yards, 10 TD
Henry didn’t have a flashy game, but he gave the Tide yards when it was important. He isn’t going to produce the freakish stats like Fournette, but who will play better (and in more important games) down the stretch may determine the better of the pair in Heisman voting.
4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, OSU 21 CAR, 106 Yards, 2 TD
On The Year: 121 CAR, 835 Yards, 10 TD
Hand ‘Zeke the ball? How hard of a concept is it? Every time Ohio State has a game that looks like it could end in an upset, they turn to Elliott to get them out of trouble. The quarterbacks who were the talk of the offseason are not the most important players on this team; it is Elliott. By FAR. Just give him carries more often, please Urban?
5. Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE 21-30, 265 Yards, 2 TD – 1 INT
On The Year: 90-130 (69%), 1,003 Yards, 11 TD – 5 INT
Watson isn’t a strong five. I think it’s between the first four for the Heisman. However, if Watson can keep Clemson winning and on the rise, he could end up in New York. He might not win it because of the lack of stats, but he’s winning football. That’s the most important thing.
Others to watch: Josh Rosen, Seth Russell, JT Barrett
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