Yeah. So that question at the end of my first paragraph last week it was something to the sound of, “who can hold on and make it to the playoff?” Yeah. That was a serious question, not a joke.
As we know, a few teams proved they couldn’t hang on. It was a bad day to have the acronym OSU; Ohio State and Oklahoma State both lost, ending undefeated seasons in both cases. Couple that with a Houston loss and we are left with only two undefeated teams: Clemson and Iowa, I repeat, Iowa. The Hawkeyes and Tigers are the final teams with a flawless record. What’s it all mean?
Well, the cycle of chaos has officially entered its full capacity. With rivalry week and conference championship week coming up, A LOT can, and will, happen. We are a Clemson and/or Iowa loss away from college football mutiny. It would be glorious.
Here are the newest scenarios.
As it’s been, Clemson, Iowa, and Alabama are all win-and-in teams. For the others, it’s a little more unclear how wins and losses will shake things up.
No. 4 Notre Dame is currently sitting in a pretty position. They have one game remaining against No. 13 Stanford. Win that and they finish the season with one loss. The lone loss came against Clemson. Good résumé.
No. 5 Oklahoma also has a legitimate claim at the playoff if they can finish the season strong against rival No. 9 Oklahoma State. It would have been a better win if the Cowboys had remained undefeated, but only on its face. The Cowboys lost to Baylor, who Oklahoma beat. Match the losses up with Notre Dame and the Irish get the nod, however. A loss to the hands of the lowly Texas Longhorns is a major blemish on an otherwise pretty schedule.
The biggest question between the Sooners and Irish is who has the better set of wins. Notre Dame doesn’t have many pretty wins to its credit: Navy, Temple, USC, and Stanford (if they win). For Oklahoma, the case is there: back-to-back-to-back wins against Baylor, TCU, and OK State – all of which had been in the top 10 consistently – pair the losses – ND to Clemson, Oklahoma to Texas – with the wins and I give Oklahoma the nod.
No. 6 Michigan State had been saving its best performance – I guess? – for Ohio State. It was an ugly game, down right disgusting. However, MSU gets the win and Sparty are poised to make a playoff run. First, the Spartans have the advantage of playing two games (if they beat Penn State) instead of one. A Big 10 title would mean beating, likely, undefeated Iowa. A little luck against Michigan and the field goal in Columbus have saved the season. But for MSU to get in that means booting Iowa, so ND or Oklahoma would still have a great shot. If MSU wins the Big 10 title, they get the nod.
From seven on back, it’s going to take some help. So I’m calling it, for now at least, as being a six-team race. Things are coming into focus. If a team like Alabama or Clemson falls unexpectedly, then we can have a conversation. Baylor can scoop up Oklahoma’s leftovers if they get beat. Ohio State is in line to benefit if MSU losses to Penn State (that’s the only way the Buckeyes can make it). Oklahoma State would need TCU to beat Baylor and Oklahoma to lose. Florida has the best shot of any team seven on back. They beat Alabama, and then they’re probably taking the trip, but that seems impossible after a near loss to Florida Atlantic.
The college football playoff committee is already in for a major headache. Any more chaos would send them into a likely coma. If Clemson and Iowa were to fall . . . My goodness. No undefeated teams is a nightmare situation. If Alabama lost this weekend to Auburn, Ole Miss goes to Atlanta for the SEC title, and then no team from the SEC makes it.
My head hurts, so I’ll stop. But here’s my projected playoffs.
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Michigan State
Let’s talk about the Heisman race, a much more clear race in my opinion.
This thing is down to the nitty gritty. I don’t think there are five people with a shot. So let’s limit it a little bit.
1. Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama 9 CAR, 68 Yards, 2 TDs
On The Year: 249 CAR, 1,526 Yards, 21 TDs
Henry is one score away from breaking Alabama’s single-season rushing record. The SEC record is 23; he needs two for that. His 21 touchdowns lead the country by three, second place is at 18. He has two games left to stack that number even more. He’s currently in fourth for total yards; he trails the pole position by only 56 yards. He only got nine touches against Charleston Southern (and he didn’t complain about the lack of touches), if he gets 20, he probably rushes for over 200 and has a blowout lead in yardage. But Saban is saving his workhorse for bigger things. Henry is on the verge of a historic year. He’s number one, and pending something insane, he’s my winner. No doubt.
2. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson 24/35, 343 Yards, 3 TD – 2 INT
On The Year: 241/344, 2,949 Yards, 26 TD – 10 INT
Watson is in second mainly because he’s been the most consistent on a great team. Everyone else has had ups and downs, the teams they play on have lacked. I just don’t like anyone as much as I like Watson. Even though the stats aren’t flawless, he’s more than a statistical QB. It’s been fun watching him progress into what he’s become.
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford 29 CAR, 192 Yards, 0 TD
On The Year: 260 CAR, 1,546 Yards, 7 TD
A lot of “analysts” are clamoring for McCaffrey to win the award. Nope. His season isn’t as good as Henry’s, and he’s not played on the same stage as Henry. Derrick Henry > Christian McCaffrey, it’s not even close. Seven touchdowns aren’t enough with 260 carries. He’s going to be on the short list for next season’s Heisman however.
4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, OSU 12 CAR, 33 Yards, 1 TD
On The Year: 232 CAR, 1,458 Yards, 17 TD
Elliott made headlines with his inflammatory words after the OSU loss. Here’s a rule he’s now learned, hopefully, don’t trash one of the most well-respected coaching staffs in the game of football after the first loss in 20+ games. Stupid move, absolutely stupid. He got 12 touches against the Spartans and only rushed for 33 yards. On only 45 offensive snaps, the Buckeyes managed only 132 yards, one of the worst games in recent memory. Elliott had a bad weekend all around.
5. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma 9/20, 127 Yards, 2 TD – 0 INT
On The Year: 226-329, 3,209 Yards, 33 TD – 5 INT
Mayfield is good. He’s good enough to get on this short list just because his team is doing well. But I don’t want you to buy into his Heisman candidacy. He’s got some learning to do. A concussion took him out after a half of play, so the stats are deceiving, but he’s got a lot of the things you look for, hope he stays at OU for another year.
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