Just Win Baby

Coming into conference championship week, we now have a clear picture of what SHOULD be the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma won the Big 12 Championship with its blowout 58-23 victory over in-state rival Oklahoma State. That gives them an all but for sure ticket to the second College Football Playoff. The committee values a conference championship, check. Oklahoma also made use of its back loaded schedule with Baylor, TCU, and OK St. in the final three weeks. They made it through the season 11-1, despite not playing a true conference championship game, they should be in.

We have one lock for the playoff.

Lock number two comes from the Big 10 Championship Game. Iowa, who is currently undefeated, and Michigan State, with one loss, will meet to decide who is going to the playoff.

Who wins? Michigan State. The Spartans looked great in a decisive victory over Penn State. They avoided the post-upset letdown by beating the Nittany Lions 55-16. Iowa has had a really fun year and will likely take a trip to the Rose Bowl for its efforts. But the old school ground and pound won’t be enough to stop Connor Cook, who looked electric last week. Cook played his best game of 2015 in his biggest moment. One win from reaching the college football’s version of the final four, Cook gets it done and positions himself nicely for next year’s NFL Draft.

Now we have Oklahoma and Michigan State in the CFP.

The next team who is all but assured a bid, Alabama. The Crimson Tide will face off against a Florida Gators team that backs itself into Atlanta after an embarrassing 27-2 defeat to in-state rival Florida State. Treon Harris completed only 50 percent (19-38) of his passes for 134 yards. To beat Alabama, you need a major pass game. Will Grier may have had the cannon to give the Tide a run for its money, but Harris just doesn’t have that ability yet. Alabama is great at stuffing the run, they should do that against Florida. And insert Derrick Henry. Fresh off of his 271 yards against Auburn, he’s looking to rack up at least 203 yards, that would give him 2,000 for the year. I look for AT LEAST 210 yards from the future Heisman winner. Alabama rolls through Atlanta and to the playoff.

Three teams are in, now who gets the final spot?

This is the spot I’m least certain about, which seems weird because Clemson is the number one team in the nation. They should roll over North Carolina, right?

A stout UNC secondary thanks to defensive coordinator, Gene Chizik, will give Deshaun Watson his toughest contest to date. It’s a big moment for the sophomore quarterback. This is a season, possibly career, defining moment. This will launch his team to the playoff and also launch a 2016 Heisman campaign. He’s been solid all season long for Dabo Swinney’s team. He’s got a flawless record, and he has grown a little more with each game. So now it’s time to put it all on to the test.

This week’s ACC Championship is the first time both teams is undefeated in conference play. It should be a good one.

Who comes out on top?

Clemson.

I’m not willing to pick against them. UNC is a really good team and probably should be undefeated. Despite that, they are not at the level Clemson is. The Tigers are a year early, sort of like Ohio State last season, but they still make it to the playoff as the one seed.

If Clemson or Alabama slip-up, who fills in? Those scenarios are a little more limited than in previous weeks. The field has narrowed down to only a few teams.

The first team that has a shot is Stanford. The Cardinal will find its way to the playoff if they finish off USC and win the PAC-12. However, the big issue a lot of people will have is the two losses. Could they leapfrog OSU and make a trip to the playoff with two losses? Well. . . yes. The CFP Committee had them one spot behind OSU before last weekend. So does Ohio State’s win over Michigan weigh more than Stanford’s win over Notre Dame? I think they side with Stanford. Even if they don’t, the Cardinal have an extra game to make the leap. Stanford gets the nod over OSU.

Ohio State is second-in-line if ‘Bama falls to Florida. For Ohio State to have a chance they need Stanford to lose, though. As I just said, Stanford leapfrogs Ohio State by default. I don’t see any way the CFP Committee can exclude Stanford if they get a conference championship AND an extra win over what Ohio State will have. If Alabama and Stanford falter this weekend, the Buckeyes are back in, and the Big 10 will be the first conference to get a pair of teams in the playoff.

Finally, North Carolina. Last weekend they were No. 14 in the CFP rankings. The committee isn’t in love with the Tar Heels, obviously. For the Tar Heels to have a shot they have to beat Clemson first. The more convincing the win, the better chances they have. Even if it’s a close game: a win means a conference title and a one loss season, with the one loss at the beginning of the season to South Carolina. It’s entirely possible that the UNC Tar Heels make the trip to the playoff with a win.

Here are the playoff matchups we will see:

1. Clemson vs. 4. Oklahoma

2. Alabama vs. 3. Michigan State

I’ll hold off on predictions for the playoff for a couple weeks. However, this is what I think the playoff looks like.

Heisman Watch

1. Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama: 46 CAR, 271 Yards, 1 TD
On The Year: 295 CAR, 1,797 Yards, 22 TDs

With his fourth 200-plus-yard game, he tied Herschel Walker and Bo Jackson for most 200-plus-yard games in a single season in the Southeastern Conference. Henry just keeps adding to his historic season. A big game against Florida in the SEC Championship game and he could hit 2,000 yards this season, which has only been done 14 times before. Can we go ahead and crown him Heisman? The rest of the year is just a formality.

2. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson: 20-27, 279 Yards, 1 TD – 0 INT
Rushing: 21 CAR, 114 Yards, 3 TD
On The Year: 261-371, 3,228 Yards, 27 TD – 10 INT
Rushing: 139 CAR, 756 Yards, 9 TD

Watson had a rough day through the air, but on the ground he was great. Most importantly he got the big win. He’s got one more game, North Carolina, and he is an undefeated ACC champion. Finish it off and he should get a top-three spot in New York.

3. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State: 30 CAR, 214 Yards, 2 TD
On The Year: 262 CAR, 1,672 Yards, 19 TD

Elliott demanded the ball this week after last week’s loss. Urban Meyer and company decided to give him the ball. He didn’t disappoint. It what may be his next-to-last time suiting up in a Buckeye uniform, the fans should be pleased with what he gave the university. If he stays, go ahead and add him to a loaded 2016 Heisman list. If not, good luck in the NFL.

4. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: 27 CAR, 94 Yards, 0 TD
On The Year: 287 CAR, 1,650 Yards, 7 TD

McCaffrey was overshadowed by Josh Adams of Notre Dame, who went for 168 yards and a touchdown in the final game of the regular season. However, McCaffrey got the final laugh as his team got the win in one of the best games of the year. He’ll have one more shot in the PAC-12 Championship Game, but I still think he’s a ways off from Henry.

5. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma: 17-25,  180 Yards, 2 TD – 0 INT
On The Year: 243-354, 3,389 Yards, 35 TD – 5 INT

Mayfield had a decent day altogether. He didn’t put up 400 yards through the air, but he was untouched. A good completion percentage coupled with a pair of touchdowns. He added 77 on the ground and an additional touchdown. The biggest stat for Mayfield ends up being the number one in the loss column. Great year for Mayfield, now he’s on to the playoff.