The Cincinnati Bengals are preparing for a fifth consecutive playoff game — this time against their AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers later tonight in the first AFC Wild Card match-up this weekend. It will be the third meeting between the pair this season — a series that was split in the regular season.
For the Bengals, this game means another chance at ending the 25-year playoff drought and be on their way to winning their first Super Bowl in franchise history. For the Steelers, this game means extending that streak and starting another run to what could be a seventh Super Bowl Championship.
The game will be a little different than the other three games being played this Wild Card weekend. You already know why, of course. The two teams mixed things up in the first matchup — a game in which Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell tore his ACL — leading to off the field chatter before the second meeting. The second game was one of the most violent games of the season, and it wasn’t always legal. A total of nearly $140,000 in fines would be laid upon the backs of seven players. The most important of those seven was Vontaze Burfict. The Bengals linebacker was fined nearly $70,000 for three separate violations, including a hit near the knees of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
With the first two matchups in the books, it’s nearly time for the season finale between the two in Saturday’s AFC Wild Card game.
The Bengals enter the game with the second-best scoring defense and the seventh-highest scoring offense in the NFL. These stats bode well for Marvin Lewis’ team. Something that may or may not bode well for Lewis, however, is another key factor that occurred in the second Bengals/Steelers game — the injury to Andy Dalton and the inserting of second-year backup A.J. McCarron.
McCarron is 2-1 as a starter and has looked a little bit better in each start. An essential asset for McCarron has been limiting mistakes. Since his two interceptions against the Steelers, he hasn’t thrown a single interception. He currently boasts a 66.4 completion percentage and a 97.1 passer rating. However, his 122 yards per game is less than half of what Dalton was averaging (250).
The running game will be a big focus for the game with weather conditions forecasted as less than favorable. That means a reliance on Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill will likely be in offensive coordinator Hue Jackson’s gameplan. Bernard and Hill combined for 1,524 yards this season. However, Bernard’s 4.7 yards per carry average is much better than Hill’s 3.6 yards per carry.
The Bengals receivers are an excellent group of guys for whoever is under center. Headlined by A.J. Green, this group is more than capable of exposing a weak secondary. We’ve seen Jackson take the top off of the defense with Green more than once, and it hasn’t changed with McCarron. Whatever Jackson’s plan is in this AFC Wild Card game, A.J. Green must be a factor regardless of the quarterback under center.
On defense, the Bengals have a clear objective going in: slow Antonio Brown down as much as possible. The Steelers offense is incredibly potent. In fact, they are the only team (to the best of my research) to have three separate receivers catch at least one touchdown and record 175 yards receiving in a game (H/T Jeff Miller). Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant each accomplished that feat this season, as well as Brown, who has been the best receiver in the NFL in the past few weeks.
However, this Steelers offense hasn’t had as much success against Cincinnati as it has had against everyone else. Brown, who has averaged 114.6 yards per game, has a total of only 134 in two games against the Bengals this season.
The Bengals secondary has its work cut out for it, but they’ve stepped up both games this season for the most part. They’ve only allowed one touchdown and picked off Roethlisberger four times.
For the Bengals to win in this AFC Wild Card it will come down to several things.
1. Keep McCarron upright — something the offensive line has struggled to do. He’s been sacked 12 times in four games. That number is scary compared to the 20 sacks against Dalton in 13 games.
2. Establish a running game to help McCarron, chew clock (keeping the Steelers offense off the field), and secure a victory in the potential pouring rain that’s projected to hit in the fourth quarter.
3. Force, at least, two turnovers on defense. They’ve done it in the first two; they need to do it once more.
The Steelers come into the playoffs with an offense that is playing without its star running back, yet still fourth in scoring offense. With the wealth of injuries they’ve faced, that’s a scary thought. The defense has been weaker than Steelers fans have grown accustomed to. They’re still 11th in scoring defense, but they have stymied offenses to 13 points or fewer in five games. (They’ve given up more than 25 four times.) With an offense that wants to get into a scoring sprint, it becomes tough to defend.
Roethlisberger is under center as usual, and that usually means bad things for Bengals fans. He loves playing against the Bengals, but this season has been different.
Roethlisberger has thrown for 544 yards, one touchdown and four INTs — not his best season against Lewis and company.
Big Ben is a big game quarterback and is always a threat for a big game, so the previous two games could be an outlier or a theme depending on how Saturday’s AFC Wild Card turns out.
The running game will likely be all but non-existent as Pittsburgh will be without RB1 and RB2 Saturday. They turn to Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman. The duo has a total of 64 yards rushing this season – 35 yards fewer than Michael Vick. With that in mind and a Bengals rush defense that’s among the tops in the league, it’ll likely be a heavy reliance on Roethlisberger’s arm that could win this one.
The star-studded receiving group is what the Steelers will look to for a victory. The trio of receivers (Brown, Bryant, and Wheaton) has more than enough capability to win this one. The trio has accumulated 3,348 yards — which is more than the entire receiving core of the Kansas City Chiefs (3,255) and the Minnesota Vikings (2,928) who are both in the playoffs as well.
Cincinnati’s secondary has had success to this point, but this isn’t a group to block into a category. Give them a step and they’ll take it to paydirt. The Steelers success or failure in the playoffs will likely hinge on the production of these three stars.
On defense, the Steelers will have to find a way to stop the Cincinnati run game. At the outset, expect the Bengals to look to find a reliable option out of the backfield, be it Bernard or Hill, as they try to ride their back to the next round. If they can stop the running game, it will put all of the pressure on the young and inexperienced arm of McCarron. That’s the ideal situation for Pittsburgh. If they don’t, expect Cincy to run consistently while opening up a few deep play action shots.
Pittsburgh’s road to success tonight in the AFC Wild Card is simple:
1. Open up the offense early, score often, put the pressure on the Bengals to match them offensively.
2. Force the Bengals into a passing game and attack the young gunslinger, McCarron. This could lead to Pittsburgh winning the always important turnover battle.
3. Stop A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. These two will be the touchdown threats through the air. If they can force McCarron into his third and fourth read, the Steelers win the game.
Another key factor for both teams will be penalty yardage. The NFL has already warned both head coaches about extra-curricular activity. With the bad blood well documented, a few untimely penalties can sway the game in either direction.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 on CBS, live from Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati.
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