What happens when a team stocked with youth, talent, and desire meets a team stocked with maturity, determination, and history? We get the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
Clemson enters the season finale undefeated, the lone team in Division-I college football to do so, and an Atlantic Coast Conference Championship. They’ve claimed the conference title 15 times now (most in ACC), this being the first since 2011. They’ve won one national title (1981).
Alabama enters with a lone loss and a Southeastern Conference Championship. Alabama has won 29 conference titles, most in SEC history. The Crimson Tide have won 15 national titles, including three with Nick Saban leading the team (2009, 2011, 2012).
The two teams are at the top of college football this season, but it’s clear that it is a rarity.
Clemson has had good seasons but usually has found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Failure has a few names in the south, ‘Clemsoning’ is near the top of the list. That notion is that the Tigers will find a way to screw up when it appears success was otherwise inevitable.
Alabama has had good seasons and sent fans home upset. ‘Good’ isn’t good enough, not for the ‘Bama faithful. Great isn’t even a consolation. Great is a one-loss season ending with a Sugar Bowl victory; that can put Alabama fans on the edge. Alabama pursues perfection. That’s why a loss like the one the team suffered to Ole Miss earlier this season burns the hair underneath the houndstooth hats of Crimson Tide fans. They shouldn’t have lost that game, at least, that’s what Tide fans will tell you.
The two fan bases have ridden different roller coasters throughout their lives. For Alabama, it’s a roller coaster that rivals skyscrapers for the skyline, an occasional bump? Sure. But for the most part, it’s a smooth, uneventful coaster that soars the sky.
Clemson? That roller coaster is a wild ride.
Take for instance the excitement in the 2014 season. It appeared as if Clemson was primed for a run that would end with the College Football Playoff. A matchup with defending champion Florida State loomed. The Seminoles didn’t have their Heisman winning quarterback Jameis Winston, and it looked like the Tigers would win easily against the number one team in the country at their home. But then an overtime comeback from backup Sean Maguire left the Tigers with a drastic drop from the top of the coaster’s lift. A 23-17 loss to a backup with the world watching.
Maybe that doesn’t put the coaster in perspective well enough. Here’s another. Take the 2012 Orange Bowl. The Tigers were ACC Champs again, this time, they’d play West Virginia in what was Clemson’s first Bowl Championship Series game ever. The result? A 70-33 blowout loss that would set numerous records.
Clemsoning.
Alabama fans don’t like wild rides. But, then again, neither do Clemson fans. Some fans are just doomed to wild rides. (Personal Note: Seems to be a theme for fans of teams with Tigers as a mascot. . .) But what does it all mean in context?
Another championship for Alabama would be par for the course. It would add another impressive peg on to the legend of Nick Saban, likely making him the greatest coach in college history. Blah, blah, blah. Nothing unusual here, this coaster is more of a train track.
A second championship for Clemson would be revolutionary. The first time many Clemson fans could experience winning. But winning with a history of losing, and losing spectacularly, is different. There is a stark difference in winning and finally winning.
That’s what’s at stake when the two teams kickoff tonight.
But when Heisman winner Derrick Henry gets his first carry, when Deshaun Watson completes his first pass, and when Reggie Ragland makes his first tackle, all of those roller coaster rides go out the window.
All that matters Monday night is this season, this game, this snap. Nothing else matters. Sure, the fans will know what’s at stake. Sure, the athletic directors would love to add this to their respective school’s history. But the players and coaches must silence all of those thoughts.
Watson and Wayne Gallman want to bring Clemson its long-awaited championship, but do they want it more than Henry and Jacob Coker?
That’s what we will find out on Monday night.
Someone is going home a champion, who will that be?
In short, Alabama. Clemson is a year off. They are meeting a team that’s used to this spotlight. They are playing a team with the best running back in college football and a quarterback, whose confidence is increasing with each snap. They are staring at a defense that is a few steps off of an NFL-caliber force.
The story will be great if Clemson can find a way to upset Alabama. But that’s a story that seems more likely in 2017 than 2016.
Here’s how I see it playing out.
Clemson will start quick and punch Alabama first. Their offense is fierce, fast, furious, and that will show in the first quarter. But expect a rebound from Alabama. They won’t worry about a quick score; they’ve seen that before. The defense will make some small adjustments as Coker turns around and hands off to Henry. He’ll get his yards and pound away at Clemson for four quarters, just waiting to find his spot. But just when you think the slow, lullaby of a running game will keep hitting you, a play action pass hits Clemson right back. A touchdown to Alabama’s best freshman receiver ever, Calvin Ridley.
The game will be close, and that favors Alabama if the score stays low. The Crimson Tide won’t look to get into a 15-round Pacquiao-Mayweather fight, displaying speed and finesse. They’ll look for a classic heavyweight fight, to see who can take the hits and keep coming. Straight out of a Rocky movie.
It’s going to be Henry with repeated runs, offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin will pick his spots to pass, and the defense will continue to punish Clemson with each play.
Watson, a quarterback that can extend plays with his legs, will look to follow in Cam Newton and Johnny Manziel’s footsteps. They beat Alabama with their legs. But, expect Alabama to hit Watson every time. It won’t be anything overt, but when the fourth quarter horn sounds, he’ll know he’s been playing an NFL-style defense.
When you play Alabama, you’re going to receive bumps and bruises. It’s going to hurt. It’s not easy to win this type of game if it’s the first time you’ve experienced it. But it can be done. If Clemson wants to win they’ll need a few things.
1. They need to win the turnover battle by at least two
When Ole Miss upset Alabama earlier this season, they won the turnover battle 5-0. Two fumbles and three interceptions. And they still only won by the skin of their teeth. Clemson’s secondary has to find a way to force Coker into dangerous situations. That’s something defensive coordinator Brent Venables will have to draw up. New and complex schemes will likely be rolled out. If Coker throws something up for grabs, it could spell a victory.
2. A few big plays
Spreading the Alabama defense out is essential to finding a hole. Taking a one running back offense and spreading it out with several wide receivers and tight end will force Alabama out of its base defense and into schemes with fewer linebackers. That will open the running game up for Gallman and Watson both. A few big plays on the ground (think Newton and Manziel) can open a few passing plays up. This will especially be true if they can force the Tide to spy Watson every play. It’s going to take at least four chunk plays to get the job done.
3. Avoid mental mistakes and strategic errors
Points are points, right? Wrong. Clemson must finish drives with seven, not three. Alabama is tough to score on, but more often than not, they’ll hold you to three points at best. So when an opportunity arises, take it. Turnovers, of course, cannot happen. This is more on Watson; he has to play his best game Monday night. Those are some of the keys, but when defeating Alabama, all of the little things matter even more. Saban and company will expose all mistakes. Arm tackling, misreading a play, or leaving your man will all be minor errors in any other game, but they’re titanic mistakes Monday night.
Those are just three keys, but Clemson must play its cleanest game of the year, all while being more aggressive than ever. Touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles, and all other aggressive plays have to happen. But Clemson cannot miss when they pick a spot to go bold.
This game is going to be a slugfest. If the Tigers can hit back even harder, they’ll survive the night.
My prediction is a 17-14 game entering the fourth quarter. Either team may be up, but I’m betting its Clemson.
Final score? 28-20. Alabama won’t blow Clemson out as some are predicting. But I don’t foresee an end to the national championship drought in Clemson. Next year? Maybe. But that’s a topic for another discussion.
Kickoff for tonight’s National Championship game is set for 8:30 on ESPN from the University of Phoenix Stadium in Phoenix, AZ.
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