Expectations for Chris Johnson, Part Two

Several things really stood out in the data in Part One of this series on expectations for Chris Johnson.

First, it was noted that in the 31 years since the NFL instituted a 16-game regular season, the rushing leader gained an average of only 73.6% of that yardage in the following season. However, not all of the rushing leaders gained less yardage the following year. Eight times the league leader rushed for even more yards the next year. Seven of those times that player was one who won multiple rushing titles.

The second thing that stood out was the sustained production of multi-year rushing leaders. Barry Sanders won his fourth rushing title seven years after he won his first. Eric Dickerson’s fourth rushing title came five years after his first. Edgerrin James twice rushed for 1,500 yards five years after leading the league.

Backs who won only one rushing title had a dramatic dropoff in production. Only four of twelve one-time rushing leaders gained 1,000 yards the following season. Only two of them rushed for 1,000 yards five years later.

It was therefore evident that the nineteen running backs who led the league in rushing since 1978 could easily be classified into two categories, those with multiple rushing titles and those with one.

The backs with multiple rushing titles were able to sustain their productivity (mostly) for five additional years. The backs with only one rushing title, for the most part, could not sustain a high level of production.

For that reason, I have taken the table from Part One, which grouped all the backs together, and divided it into two groups. Multiple-year rushing leaders are first, followed by one-time rushing leaders.

Running backs with multiple rushing titles, 1978-present

Year	Leading rusher	Yards	Year+1	Year+2	Year+3	Year+4	Year+5
1978	Earl Campbell	1,450	1,697	1,934	1,376	538	1,301
1979	Earl Campbell	1,697	1,934	1,376	538	1,301	468
1980	Earl Campbell	1,934	1,376	538	1,301	468	643
1983	Eric Dickerson	1,808	2,105	1,234	1,821	1,288	1,659
1984	Eric Dickerson	2,105	1,234	1,821	1,288	1,659	1,311
1986	Eric Dickerson	1,821	1,288	1,659	1,311	677	536
1988	Eric Dickerson	1,659	1,311	677	536	729	91
1990	Barry Sanders	1,304	1,548	1,352	1,115	1,883	1,500
1991	Emmitt Smith	1,563	1,713	1,486	1,484	1,773	1,204
1992	Emmitt Smith	1,713	1,486	1,484	1,773	1,204	1,074
1993	Emmitt Smith	1,486	1,484	1,773	1,204	1,074	1,332
1994	Barry Sanders	1,883	1,500	1,553	2,053	1,491	0
1995	Emmitt Smith	1,773	1,204	1,074	1,332	1,397	1,203
1996	Barry Sanders	1,553	2,053	1,491	0	0	0
1997	Barry Sanders	2,053	1,491	0	0	0	0
1999	Edgerrin James	1,553	1,709	662	989	1,259	1,548
2000	Edgerrin James	1,709	662	989	1,259	1,548	1,506
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson	1,815	1,474	1,110	730
2007	LaDainian Tomlinson	1,474	1,110	730
	Average	1,703	1,494	1,208	1,117	1,076	904
	% of Year 0	100%	87.7%	70.9%	65.6%	63.2%	53.1%
	% applied to CJ	2,006	1,760	1,423	1,316	1,267	1,066

Running backs with one rushing title, 1978-present

Year	Leading rusher	Yards	Year+1	Year+2	Year+3	Year+4	Year+5
1981	George Rogers	1,674	535	1,144	914	1,093	1,203
1982	Freeman McNeil	786	654	1,070	1,331	856	530
1985	Marcus Allen	1,759	759	754	831	293	682
1987	Charles White	1,374	323	0	0	0	0
1989	Christian Okoye	1,480	805	1,031	448	0	0
1998	Terrell Davis	2,008	211	282	701	0	0
2001	Priest Holmes	1,555	1,615	1,420	892	451	137
2002	Ricky Williams	1,853	1,372	0	743	0	15
2003	Jamal Lewis	2,066	1,006	906	1,132	1,304	1,002
2004	Curtis Martin	1,697	735	0	0	0	0
2005	Shaun Alexander	1,880	896	716	24	0
2008	Adrian Peterson	1,760	1,383
2009	Chris Johnson	2,006
	Average	1,684	858	666	638	363	357
	% of Year 0	100.0%	50.9%	39.5%	37.9%	21.6%	21.2%
	% applied to CJ	2,006	1,022	793	760	433	425

Note there is little difference between the two groups in yardage gained the year of the rushing title, 1,703 to 1,684 yards. The following year has a tremendous discrepancy, which continues through the fifth year. The year after leading the league in rushing, the first group had a dropoff of only 12% as compared to a 49% decrease for the one-time league leaders.

It should also be noted that the multi-year rushing leaders consist of four Hall of Fame backs and two who will most probably be enshrined when they become eligible. There is only one HoF RB, Marcus Allen, among the backs who won the rushing title once. Curtis Martin will most probably join him and Jamal Lewis might.

There are clear distinctions between the two groups and we won’t know for several more years which group Chris Johnson belongs to. If he ends up in the first group, he should rush for over 1,000 yards in each of the next five years and 10,000 yards in seven seasons (he already has 3,234 yards.)

The beauty of this, from the Titans’ perspective, is that they have three more years of CJ to look forward to and possibly, if he continues to be productive, several more after that.

Wouldn’t it be great if CJ’s production, and the longevity of it, is similar to Sanders’, Dickerson’s or Emmitt’s? We may be witnessing the beginning of another spectacular streak.

On the other hand, there is the possibility he could end up like some of the other one-time league leaders, who were unable to sustain their productivity. We shall see.