Expectations for Chris Johnson, Part Three

In Parts One and Two of this series, we focused on Chris Johnson’s rushing yards, how they compared to the yards of other league-leading rushers, and how those backs fared in the following five years.

Yards from scrimmage will now be added to this exercise and we’ll see how CJ’s numbers compare to other top backs and their production in their first two years in the league. You’d expect CJ’s numbers to look pretty good due to his yards from scrimmage record last year and they do.

I’m hoping CJ will have approximately the same amount of yards from scrimmage this year and about the same amount of touches but with less carries and more receptions. CJ came pretty close to Football Outsider’s “Curse of 370” carries last season and that’s something which I’ll write about in another article. For the time being, I’m simply looking at how CJ’s first two years stack up against the best running backs of the past, especially in yards from scrimmage.

Other things that will now be addressed are yards per game, per attempt and per touch. Besides the obvious benefits of those stats, they also allow us to make comparisons to the top backs who played before the 16-game regular season was implemented in 1978. It also allows comparisons to backs who played more recently but whose stats per season aren’t as good due to missed games because of injuries, the 1982 strike season, et al.

There were three special backs who were not included in the previous installments — Jim Brown, Gale Sayers and Walter Payton. They, and other greats, are included here. Brown and Payton are arguably the best backs who ever played the game. Sayers, who might have been included in that conversation if not for a premature career-ending knee injury, ranked first in one category and third in another we’ll look at.

Criteria for inclusion in this part are backs who accomplished one of the following:

I believe you’ll agree it’s a pretty impressive group, which includes three types of players — those good for one year (rushing title), two years (2,000 yards rushing) or a career (10,000 yards). Obviously, quite a few players met more than one of the criteria.

CJ’s stats are in blue. Stats for #1 rankings are in red. The names of Hall of Fame backs are in boldface.

RUNNING BACK PRODUCTION, FIRST TWO YEARS

	Rushing		Yards/		Yards/		Yds from		Yds from		YdsfSc
Player	Yards	Rank	Game	Rank	Carry	Rank	Scrmmg	Rank	Scr/Gm	Rank	/Touch	Rank
Eric Dickerson	3,913	1	122.3	1	5.09	7	4,456	1	139.3	1	5.30	10
Edgerrin James	3,262	2	101.9	6	4.31	24	4,452	2	138.8	2	5.04	16
Chris Johnson	3,234	3	104.3	3	5.31	4	3,997	3	128.9	4	5.69	4
Earl Campbell	3,147	4	101.5	7	4.70	10	3,289	13	106.1	17	4.71	27
Adrian Peterson	3,101	5	103.4	4	5.16	6	3,494	9	116.5	7	5.45	8
Clinton Portis	3,099	6	106.9	2	5.50	1	3,777	5	130.2	3	5.96	2
Ottis Anderson	2,957	7	92.4	9	4.68	12	3,573	7	111.7	10	5.04	17
LaDainian Tomlinson	2,919	8	91.2	11	4.11	28	3,775	6	118.0	6	4.45	33
Barry Sanders	2,774	9	89.5	12	5.19	5	3,536	8	114.1	8	5.94	3
Eddie George	2,767	10	86.5	14	4.00	32	2,993	18	93.5	25	4.15	39
Billy Sims	2,740	11	91.3	10	4.50	17	3,812	4	127.1	5	5.54	5
Jamal Lewis	2,691	12	84.1	16	4.36	21	3,429	10	107.2	15	4.96	20
Terrell Davis	2,655	13	88.5	13	4.56	16	3,332	12	111.1	11	5.00	19
Curtis Martin	2,639	14	82.5	17	3.86	35	3,233	14	101.0	19	4.25	38
Emmitt Smith	2,500	15	78.1	19	4.13	27	2,986	20	93.3	27	4.40	34
Jim Brown	2,469	16	102.9	5	5.38	2	2,662	26	110.9	12	5.42	9
Jerome Bettis	2,454	17	76.7	21	4.00	31	2,991	19	93.5	26	4.46	32
Marshall Faulk	2,360	18	73.8	24	3.91	34	3,357	11	104.9	18	4.72	26
Tony Dorsett	2,332	19	77.7	20	4.68	11	2,983	21	99.4	21	5.29	11
Corey Dillon	2,259	20	72.9	25	4.56	15	2,696	24	87.0	31	4.90	22
George Rogers	2,209	21	100.4	8	4.42	19	2,356	30	107.1	16	4.53	30
Matt Forte	2,167	22	67.7	30	3.78	36	3,115	15	97.3	23	4.49	31
Thurman Thomas	2,125	23	68.5	28	4.21	26	3,002	17	96.8	24	5.15	13
Gale Sayers	2,098	24	74.9	23	5.31	3	3,052	16	109.0	13	6.66	1
Walter Payton	2,069	25	76.6	22	4.08	29	2,431	29	90.0	28	4.38	35
Warrick Dunn	2,004	26	62.6	33	4.27	25	2,810	22	87.8	30	5.09	14
Ricky Watters	1,963	27	72.7	26	4.74	9	2,694	25	99.8	20	5.52	6
Fred Taylor	1,955	28	78.2	18	4.62	14	2,459	28	98.4	22	5.16	12
Ricky Williams	1,884	29	85.6	15	3.76	37	2,465	27	112.0	9	4.30	37
Franco Harris	1,753	30	67.4	31	4.66	13	2,002	33	77.0	34	4.92	21
John Riggins	1,713	31	65.9	32	4.43	18	2,174	31	83.6	32	4.90	23
Marcus Allen	1,711	32	68.4	29	4.02	30	2,702	23	108.1	14	5.08	15
Shaun Alexander	1,631	33	51.0	36	4.37	20	2,015	32	63.0	36	4.77	25
Freeman McNeil	1,409	34	70.5	27	4.89	8	1,767	34	88.4	29	5.49	7
O.J. Simpson	1,185	35	56.4	34	3.94	33	1,667	35	79.4	33	4.89	24
Christian Okoye	1,133	36	54.0	35	4.32	23	1,353	36	64.4	35	4.60	28
Priest Holmes	1,008	37	43.8	37	4.33	22	1,268	38	55.1	37	4.59	29
Tiki Barber	677	38	24.2	38	3.60	38	1,324	37	47.3	38	5.02	18
Charles White	621	39	20.7	39	3.39	39	993	39	33.1	39	4.37	36

You can see from those stats why Brown and Sayers were included. Sayers was first in yards from scrimmage per touch and third in yards per carry. I would have guessed Brown would rank first in yards per carry but he was second to Clinton Portis. I had almost forgotten how good Portis was in his first two seasons.

CJ was remarkably consistent with #3 or #4 rankings in every category. While this piece has dealt mostly with data and not much analysis (something to be looked at in the next article in this series) it provides more perspective on how much his career has blossomed in comparison to the top backs of the past 53 years.