After covering what the Titans might to at each position on offense in yesterday’s post, it’s time to turn my attention to the defensive side of the ball.
Before I launch into the position by position portion of this post, I want to stress two things I noted yesterday. First, this is a mini-evaluation of each position from the perspective of what the Titans might do in the draft, rather than an updated evaluation of each position. I did one of those after the main wave of free agency pass, so check that out if that’s what you’re looking for.
Second, the Titans currently have nine picks in the draft. They had seven last year. I try to take this pretty seriously, which means my probabilities add up to how many players I think the Titans draft. My initial cut by position came in with the Titans drafting six players, so I went through and upped my predictions to where my cumulative probabilities add up to almost eight. I think there’s a real possibility the Titans trade up and don’t end up actually drafting nine players. If they do end up drafting nine players, keep in mind they have multiple seventh round picks, and the seventh round is sometimes as much or more about getting a player you may not be able to sign as a UDFA as getting a guy you really like.
That out of the way, on with the show.
Defensive end
Need at position: Low to moderate or moderate to high
Analysis: Like wide receiver, defensive end is a position where the Titans could feel anywhere from they’re relatively set at the position or they have a major long-term need. Kamerion Wimbley did not really live up to the big money contract he signed last year, quality depth in 2012 was minimal, and Derrick Morgan has one year where he’s looked good. On the other hand, depth is better, Wimbley should be better in his second season and playing fewer snaps, and a fully-healthy Morgan has shown he can be a star. I think the Titans are interested in at least another rotational player and could be interested in the right featured player. More than any other position, defensive one was one I adjusted upward when I changed my probabilities.
Draft probability: 85%
Players they might target: Bjoern Werner (1st), Barkevious Mingo (1st, but admittedly a player I like more than I think they do), Margus Hunt (2nd), and Sam Montgomery (4th) are the names that stand out to me.
Defensive tackle
Need at position: Moderate
Analysis: Yet another position where the Titans may feel relatively good at yet may choose to address very early in the draft. None of Jurrell Casey, Sammie Lee Hill, nor Mike Martin is a premium player, at least yet (Casey may get there), but each of them could reasonably be considered at least relatively solid. Unless they like some combination of Karl Klug, DaJohn Harris, and Zach Clayton more than I think they do or should, I expect another body here, though more likely a late rounder if they don’t take one early.
Draft probability: 70%
Players they might target: Star Lotulelei (1st), Sharrif Floyd (1st), maybe Jesse Williams (2nd), and a bunch of guys available on Day 3 I’m not going to pretend I can distinguish between.
Linebacker
Need at position: Moderate-high
Analysis: With some reason, they like their starters, but given Colin McCarthy’s injuries last year, just Moise Fokou is not sufficient in terms of backup linebackers they feel comfortable putting on the field. I don’t think it’s a priority, but I do expect the Titans to come out of the draft with at least one more linebacker. Ideally this is a player who can play in the nickel, as I don’t think Fokou is that guy. Then again, they might disagree with me.
Draft probability: 80%
Players they might target: Kevin Minter (2nd) is a player they worked out, as is Kiko Alonso (4th-5th). Aside from them, pick a 4th round or later guy like Zaviar Gooden, Brandon Magee, Michael Mauti, or Sean Porter, though if they want to make me happy they’ll make Robert McCabe the first Georgetown player drafted since 1945.
Cornerback
Need at position: High
Analysis: I’ve said this before, but the Titans have three natural corners on the roster. Teams generally carry at least four. Unless they like Alterraun Verner in the slot more than I think they do or Coty Sensabaugh more than they should, they have a vacancy there. With nine picks, they’re coming out of the draft with at least one corner. If I had to pick a defensive position they addressed on day two or early in day three and again later in the draft, it’s corner.
Draft probability: 90%
Players they might target: Dee Milliner (1st), Xavier Rhodes (1st), D.J. Hayden (1st-2nd), Will Davis (3rd), Blidi Wreh-Wilson (3rd), and a bunch of other guys likely to come off the board outside the top 50 I haven’t bothered to study in sufficient detail to render an opinion on.
Safety
Need at position: Moderate to high
Analysis: Between Bernard Pollard, George Wilson, and Michael Griffin, I think the Titans have the three safeties they expect to play significant roles on the defense in 2013. Beyond 2013 is a much bigger question. Pollard is on a one-year deal. Wilson is at the year-to-year stage of his career. Griffin’s contract exceeds the value of his play, while Robert Johnson and Markelle Martin are far from sure things. Given the plethora of strong safety prospects available, I think they want to come out of the draft with one of those, while not ruling out a free safety if the right player is available.
Draft probability: 80%
Players they might target: Kenny Vaccaro (1st-2nd if he’s still available), Jonathan Cyprien (2nd if he’s still available), Matt Elam (2nd), Baccari Rambo (3rd-4th), J.J. Wilcox (3rd-4th), FS Philip Thomas (3rd-4th), and you really need all-22 to properly evaluate safeties and it’s not available for college games so I’m not going to pretend like I can properly evaluate even the guys I’ve listed.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
