After our customary first stop at quarterback, our next stop as we travel around the Tennessee Titans position by position heading into the 2015 offseason is a look at the running back position.
For the previous five seasons, the story of the Titans at running back was simple: it was the story of Chris Johnson. 2014 brought his departure and the change to a committee. Instead of one player getting the overwhelming majority of the work, no individual back played as many as 37% of the snaps and the lead back (defined simply as the back who led the team in carries) had just one-half of the running back carries, below average for a lead back and well below the 70+% the man formerly known as CJ2K had.
The back who led Titans backs in carries and snaps (354, 36.6%) was the rookie they chose in the second round last May, Bishop Sankey. Last offseason after the Titans chose him, I outlined a number of areas in his game where I was skeptical, or at least uncertain. He struggled to adjust to the NFL, failing to earn the trust of the coaches and thus playing time due to being asked to run anything other than outside zone the majority of the time. His first real playing time, and probably his best-looking work, came on inside handoffs from the shotgun, especially against defenses playing off. He managed 16 carries for 95 yards doing mostly that against the Bengals and Colts in Weeks 3 and 4, enough to earn a larger look by Weeks 6 and 7 against Jacksonville and Washington and was thoroughly unimpressive. By Week 11, he had shifted back to mostly a committee role, and stayed there the rest of the season.
Going back to those questions I posed last offseason and shifted to a more trait-focused perspective, he showed almost nothing at the third level. At Football Outsiders (I write for FO perma-disclaimer), we have a stat called “10+ Yards,” the average number of yards beyond 10 a running back gains on any given carry. There are a number of limitations of this stat, but I think it can be illustrative. Among all players with at least 100 carries, Sankey ranked next-to-last, behind Toby Gerhart and Trent Richardson and ahead of only Matt Asiata. He managed a single 22-yard run and otherwise rarely hit double-digits. To me that spoke of his lack of burst. I am also left questioning his vision, though it may be his instincts; he tried to bounce too many runs and that lack of burst, plus the lack of power, resulted in him too often not gaining many, or any, yards. He showed glimpses of the lateral agility, but didn’t make enough of it given what I perceive as his other issues. I think he could do a lot better in his second season if he earns more reps in obvious passing situations; he seemed less hesitant and was definitely more productive running from shotgun (he had an 8.8% DVOA on his shotgun carries compared to -14.8% on his under center carries). For whatever reason, though, he didn’t get reps in that job even in the games he got more work.
Shonn Greene finished second on the team in carries, though he was just fourth with 164 snaps. Yes, once again, if he was in the game, chances were outstanding the Titans were going to run the ball. He actually averaged 4.2 yards per carry, matching his career high. He was slightly more consistently successful than Sankey, coming in at 47% instead of 44%. Despite that, though, he actually finished slightly behind Sankey by DVOA, at just -5.1% compared to -4.4%. His specialty was more or less the two-yard gain on third-and-1 (he converted 5 of 6 third downs).
The book on Greene is pretty well known at this point, and I don’t have anything of note to add. He can play on three downs, but he’s not a dynamic enough receiving option to make it worth playing him there so he didn’t. Instead, he’s primarily a plodding between the tackles running with solid power and an awareness of who he is and how he must play to be successful. There’s a potential role on a team for a power back, though heading into the last year of his deal with a $3.25 million salary and hitting the big 3-0 in August at a position where age-related decline is quick and harsh, his status as a member of the Tennessee Titans in 2015 is questionable at best. On another team, he might be almost an auto-cut, but Ruston Webster still gave him $10 million over three years and Ken Whisenhunt still likes power backs. That’s what I say he’s still questionable rather than doubtful. It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets cut at any point, but I’d say it’s more likely than not I’m writing about him in the preseason positional analysis.
That Dexter McCluster was the Titans’ most exciting offensive addition in free agency last offseason spoke more to what they did last offseason than it did about his talents. I’ll defray discussion of his work on special teams until the special teams positional analysis, but simply note he was a wide receiver in Kansas City. When the Titans declared he was a running back, I was skeptical of his prospects based on what he did as a running back in Kansas City. In his 233 snaps before he went to injured reserve after Week 14, he managed just 131 yards on 40 carries for 3.3 yards per and a DVOA of -18.2%. I continue to believe he should not be a running back and is instead a (mediocre) slot receiver and special teams player. Ken Whisenhunt still likes gadget backs, though, and McCluster definitely qualifies. Given the need at receiver, there’s a reasonable chance he’ll be lining up outside the backfield a lot more often in 2015 (or maybe I’m just wishcasting).
Leon Washington actually finished second among backs with 235 snaps, playing almost exclusively in obvious passing situations. He was almost the anti-Greene, carrying the ball just 13 times, or 5.5% of his snaps (I’ll try not to hold it against him that Whisenhunt gave him the ball in third-and-short when he’s not well-suited for that job). He had some decent work in the pass game and some touches that reminded me of why he’d been used rarely in the past and why I didn’t think he’d get many snaps this year. Not under contract for 2015 and turning 33 in August, I don’t expect him back; like I indicated, I’d love to see Sankey get those snaps this year.
When the Titans elevated Antonio Andrews to the active roster from the practice squad before Week 8 in the face of an offer from the Buffalo Bills, I thought he might start to get some of Shonn Greene’s snaps, since the only reason I saw to keep him was to be the next power back. Instead, he got absolutely 0 carries, just a couple targets and some kickoff returns. I didn’t think much of him coming out of Western Kentucky and didn’t see anything of him in preseason or what he did in his 14 snaps on offense to change my opinion. The other running back on the roster is Lache Seastrunk, a practice squadder signed to a futures contract; I didn’t like him any more than I did Andrews, viewing him strictly as a system back at Baylor.
Overview-Type Thoughts
Up until now, I’ve managed to avoid the biggest issue the Titans had at running back, namely that the Titans made a running back by committee look bad by handling it almost completely incoherently. This was part of a broader seeming incoherence on offense, like a disdain for third-down running that rivaled Chris Palmer’s in 2011 minus the countervailing part of Matt Hasselbeck actually playing really well on third downs. To the extent running backs do get into a rhythm by playing consistently, they weren’t allowed to do that. Incorporating that, and what Mike Mularkey’s elevation to run game coordinator, might mean for the 2015 backfield will be an interesting task. I strongly expect to see another committee. I didn’t think Sankey was significantly different than the back he was at Washington, so I would expect the Titans to give him another chance to show what he can do.
The big question is if they do anything else to supplement the committee; a Sankey-Andrews-McCluster committee is almost too depressing for me to contemplate. The question is, how much of a priority should it be to upgrade on that, and what sort of player are they looking for? My preference would be for Sankey to play a role like Washington played, some competition for Andrews (and Greene) in the power back role, and the addition of a back capable of holding up for 200-plus carries and being productive with them. This could be a powerful runner like Greene at his best or more of an all-around back like Ryan Mathews, a player I’ve long liked who played for Whisenhunt in San Diego. We’ll see whether the Titans agree with me; as with quarterback and so many other positions, this is one the Titans could decide is in need of major upgrading or could just decide gets some tinkering at the edges while they concentrate their resources elsewhere.
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