The Tennessee Titans had not been one of the most active teams early in free agency. That changed Friday, as they re-signed three of their own players and added two more from other teams. The re-signings included defensive lineman Karl Klug, outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, and kicker Ryan Succop. The additions included tight end Anthony Fasano and outside linebacker Brian Orakpo.
The biggest moves are the signings of the two outside linebackers, re-signing Morgan and adding Orakpo. I haven’t gotten to the OLB positional analysis yet, but depth and quality at the top end was a major issue. The Titans had a desperate need for two players who could play starter-level roles in 2015. Morgan and Orakpo definitely qualify.
That doesn’t mean those signings are unimpeachable, of course. Morgan is a known quantity, from his five seasons with the Titans. He fared reasonably well in his first season in the 3-4; in fact, the way I’d characterize it is he had another very Derrick Morgan season despite the scheme change. That included some solid work in run defense, a good number of hurries (though our data at Football Outsiders had him second in the team behind Jurrell Casey, not first), and around 6 sacks (6.5, to be precise). That’s a pretty solid complementary rusher, but not as much as I’m looking for in my primary pass rush specialist. His four-year deal, with incentives, could reportedly be worth up to $30 million; per Jim Wyatt, the Titans reportedly started out with offers closer to $4.5 million per year before going to that range. As that jump indicates, this is a bit of an aggressive deal for Morgan, and for perfectly understandable reasons.
Brian Orakpo will be that primary pass rusher. If he’s playing at his best, he’s a pretty good one and a significant upgrade on Morgan and what the Titans have had on the edge since Kyle Vanden Bosch’s departure. On the other hand, how often you’ll see that Brian Orakpo is a significant question. He played only two games in 2012 before tearing his pectoral muscle and heading to injured reserve. He played 15 games in 2013 and played very well, recording 10.0 sacks and 26 hurries (per FO numbers), indicating his sack total wasn’t disproportionate to his actual production, and fared well in coverage. 2014 was another injury-plagued year, as finger and ankle injuries had him listed on the injury report every week until another torn pectoral sent him to injured reserve. He had just 0.5 sacks in those 7 games. His hurry total was better than that (9, per FO data), but that’s definitely a down season and concerning. He turns 29 in late July, so he’s still young enough to be productive for a couple more seasons. Like paying Morgan, handing Orakpo $32 million over the next four seasons is a bit of an aggressive move, but this is free agency and that’s what you have to do when you’re in a position like the Titans are in. If he stays healthy and plays like he did the last time he was healthy, that’s a reasonable contract. Those are definitely some ifs, though.
I have a defensive line positional analysis that I was going to finish up and publish Friday, until the Titans went ahead and signed a bunch of players. In that, I wrote that I didn’t expect Karl Klug to be a member of the Titans in 2015. I think he’s mostly a WYSIWYG, an undersized penetrator with good hand use who’s significantly better against poor offensive linemen than he is against even average ones and a liability in the run game. I thought he was bound for a 4-3 team where he could play a useful sub package role, but instead the Titans bring him back. I’ll be very curious to see the terms of his deal and how the Titans intend to use him. I don’t think he’s more than a 15-20 snaps per game player (he averaged 19.8 in 2014). The baseline for his two year deal is something like the $4 million Al Woods (18 snaps/game in 2014) got last offseason; if Klug’s deal is significantly different from that, it’ll definitely have my attention. No, I don’t think fullback is a significant part of his value or why they re-signed him.
Ryan Succop was a huge addition for the Titans in 2014, solidifying a kicker position that looked shaky in camp as Maikon Bonani and Travis Coons seemingly alternated making fans (and probably the coaches and front office even moreso) uncomfortable. I thought that his deal then would be along the lines of the three years, $7.2 million or so he reportedly got from the Titans this offseason. By Football Outsiders numbers, he came out right around average on field goals and extra points and was 14th in terms of kickoff value. By average per year, that’s a pretty average kicker contract for a pretty average kicker. See, not everything in free agency is unreasonable!
Besides Orakpo, the other player the Titans added was tight end Anthony Fasano, formerly of the Chiefs. He’s basically “Craig Stevens, except his teams have been willing to throw him the ball every season.” A solid blocker, he had some solid seasons as a receiver in Miami (you may remember his 5-107-1 day in 2010 in Randy Moss’s first game with the Titans), but has been average at best by DVOA the past three seasons. Turning 31 in April and entering his tenth NFL season, I would not expect a rebound on a Delanie Walker-like late career resurgence. Rather, he’ll be the #2 tight end to Walker, a decent in-line blocker, and somebody who can turn 8-yard passes into the soft spot in zones into 9-yard gains. My guess is his reported two-year deal will be at a discount to the $3.5 million Stevens is scheduled to make this season. Signing Fasano also tells me Taylor Thompson is unlikely to play a significant role (50+% of snaps) in 2015, which was one of the questions I pondered in the positional analysis.
More on the Titans’ moves as they make them, plus I’ll have deeper dives on Fasano and Orakpo in due course.
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