After the customary first stop at quarterback, our next stop on our tour around the 2015 Tennessee Titans as we approach the start of the regular season is a look at the running backs.
In the offseason positional analysis, I wrote about the incoherence and ineffectiveness of the Titans’ running back by committee in 2014. 2015 seems like it will look a lot like 2014 did, at least in terms of committee (versus not), likely roles, and most of the names and faces are still the same. Will that mean the same sort of issues, or might things be better?
I wrote last offseason about the great Bishop Sankey divide. This offseason, guess what? There is still a great Bishop Sankey divide! The optimists point to his excellent ranking in yards after contact. The pessimists, and I still include myself in that camp, note that even with a great yards after contact total he still only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Yeah, yeah, YPC is easily skewed by long runs, so it’s no surprise Sankey didn’t have a good YPC. Of course, Sankey is the sort of back (4.49 40!) optimists portray as the sort of player who should have long runs.
Lest I go on (and on and on), I’ll put that back-and-forth on hold and note the most relevant fact: that The Powers That Be at St. Thomas Sports Park were the ones who drafted Bishop Sankey in the second round, gave him more carries than any other running back on the team last year, and have talked him up this offseason. He’ll play a prominent role in the committee, though I’d say his 75% ceiling is probably around 60% of the running back carries.
Without bringing the whole divide back up, there are a couple things that will be interesting to watch this offseason. First, Sankey came out of Washington with poor power. He bulked up some this offseason to address that problem, and spoke in May about coming in at 217 pounds after ending the season last year at 205 pounds. Second, his work in the passing game. As I chronicled in the offseason positional analysis, he did his best work as a runner from the shotgun. How much of the “passing game” back role can he play? Going full Danny Woodhead 2013 is not something I’m expecting this offseason, especially with how I think the Titans are likely to want to play offense. Still, there are snaps for that job available with the departure of Leon Washington, who finished second among running backs in playing time last year. Sankey seems like a strong favorite for that job, but does he in fact get that work and how effective is he with it?
The power back job complementing Sankey in the committee went last year to Shonn Greene. He was released in June, though, which creates a major void in that area. Reading the media reports coming out of Nashville, there will be a competition for that job and the current leader of that competition is Antonio Andrews. Figuring out just what to expect from Andrews is an interesting proposition. The Titans signed him as an undrafted free agent last year; I wasn’t impressed with his game. They thought enough of him to add him to the active roster when he was a practice squadder with a job offer from the Buffalo Bills. Then, they didn’t actually use him. He played just 14 snaps and did not have a single carry, even though it seemed like it would make a ton of sense to get him the ball given Greene’s status and that he was a rookie and you’ve won 2 games and the season is practically over and if I keep writing I’ll be reduced to gibbering, as opposed to the unedited gibberish I normally write, and …
I did not see enough in those 14 snaps last season to update my scouting report on Andrews. I’m 500 miles from St. Thomas Sports Park and haven’t gotten a chance to see how my scouting report on Andrews would change if it was fully up to date. The questions are the normal ones, about whether he does a better job of running with power, if he is stronger, and how much he has improved in the passing game aspects of the job. The Titans are suitably optimistic; teams not being optimistic about their players in early August, before even the first preseason game, is the perfect time to panic. Andrews also could play a role in the kickoff return competition; he did it at Western Kentucky and had a few (undistinguished) returns last year.
Andrews’ competition for the job is fifth-round pick David Cobb. When I arrived at the draft workroom on Saturday (I started the day at home) and mentioned the Cobb pick, the first thing a fellow football writer said to me was “David Cobb is better than Bishop Sankey.” The need to do other things meant I didn’t give Cobb the extended treatment Sankey got last offseason, but he was a very effective power back at Minnesota. Good at running between the tackles and pressing the hole. Why was he just a fifth-round pick? Well, there’s not a whole lot to him. He’s likely to be just a power back in a committee and is just a guy, at best, in the passing game. My pre-draft comparison was Shonn Greene, when he was younger and still had a little bit of juice in his legs; not too much juice, mind you, but a little bit.
That Cobb is currently behind Andrews seems like mostly a function of the hamstring injury that cost him the offseason, plus Andrews’ year of experience in the NFL. Given that Cobb is actually practicing at training camp and the sort of player I think will look better in live action, I’d expect him to eventually beat out Andrews for the job. His 75% upside this year is probably 60% of the running back carries, and I wouldn’t expect more than a handful of receptions. I’d hope his carries/snap total isn’t quite as bad as Greene’s last year, when the Titans handed him the ball the majority of the plays he was in the game, but it wouldn’t surprise me too much if he was.
One possibility is that the Titans keep all five running backs active most or every week; they did it last year. In that case, there would be no need to decide a winner in the battle between Andrews and Cobb. Rather, they could split 60% or more of the running back carries, with Sankey getting the rest and playing a heavier role in the passing game so he plays more overall than he did last year. I think that would fit with how I think the Titans want to play offense.
I wrote last offseason about how Dexter McCluster was just a gadget player. And, lo and behold, he actually was a gadget player. He’s a good punt returner, or will be if the Titans do a better job of blocking for him, but every between the tackles carry and most of the other carries he gets feel like mistakes to me. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see him match last year’s role and numbers of 40 carries and 26 receptions. If Sankey falters under the passing game back job, McCluster could take some of those duties by default. In that case, he’d pick up a handful of carries and slightly more receptions.
The other running back on the roster is the recently-added David Fluellen, who spent time in the Eagles and Colts camps last offseason but did not make either team. The mold he fits is power back, so if you want to think of him as Cobb injury/development insurance, we’re probably on the same page.
I will discuss Jalston Fowler and Connor Neighbors in a separate fullbacks positional analysis, posting tomorrow.
Conclusion-Type Things
Committee, again, hopefully not as incoherent and with a back or two maybe getting into a rhythm. Player by player, it looks improved from last year. Cobb is a younger version of Greene. Sankey should be better in his second season. Ditto Andrews. McCluster should still be McCluster. The youth is a bit of a concern, as is for me the lack of a good backup for Sankey since he seems like he’ll play a big role, though that won’t mean the return to a CJ2K-like big role. Cobb could take over the power back role in a committee or split that with Antonio Andrews. That everybody else has stop trying to make Dexter McCluster happen doesn’t meant the Titans won’t, though as I indicated, that doesn’t mean he’ll be taking over the backfield. How well Marcus Mariota plays is the factor that could overwhelm every single positional analysis; the effectiveness of the offensive line could do the same.
On the whole, last year’s conclusion, that this is not a position group that excites me, is still true. It still doesn’t have to. The group just has to play effectively enough, which they could if the offensive line is good enough.
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