SELF-PUBLICITY NOTE: Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, the annual tome previewing all 32 NFL teams, plus the college football season put out by Football Outsiders, is now available. I was a contributor for the sixth consecutive season, writing the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and, yes, once again, Tennessee Titans chapters. The PDF is currently available from the Football Outsiders website, while a print version will be on Amazon soon (based on the past, I’d assume next week at some point). Buy it, buy it, buy it! /end plug
After quarterback, running back, fullback, and wide receiver, the next stop on our trip around the Tennessee Titans position by position as we approach the start of the 2015 regular season is a look at the tight ends.
In Ken Whisenhunt’s press conference to open training camp, he was asked about what positions he wasn’t sure about. Rather than listing most positions on the roster, he turned it around and specified the positions he was comfortable with. The only one on offense he named was tight ends. It’s easy to see why, as the Titans have three tight ends on the roster with a lot of NFL experience whose 2015 level of performance should be pretty predictable.
Delanie Walker is the clear standout of the position group after a very good 2014 season for which I named him the team’s offensive MVP. He’ll again play a lot, in all situations, and catch plenty of passes, though again probably not quite as many as Kendall Wright.
Given that I am not concerned about Thursday’s hand injury, the only real concern about Walker’s game is he turns 31 next week. As I covered in last year’s preseason positional analysis, the age curve is often harsh for tight ends, and often starting even younger than Walker is. I was too pessimistic on him last year, but it’s an area of concern that must be monitored on an annual basis. We’ve seen some exceptions who are able to remain productive receivers longer, but as I wrote in the offseason positional analysis I wouldn’t expect him to come close to matching last year’s over 14 yards per catch.
Ah, yes, the offseason positional analysis. Bad prediction #1: Taylor Thompson will be on the team. He was instead released in June, apparently from a dispute over the current status of his knee. I thought he has a useful role, but marginal roster players can’t annoy the head coach like he did. A lot of ink was spilled over how he was a disappointment and a bust. I disagree with that. He was a fifth-round pick, and expectations for those are pretty low. Here’s what the Titans have done in the fifth round in the last 10 years:
Obviously Cobb hasn’t played yet and Williamson had a promising rookie season. Beyond him, only Klug and Ringer made it into their fourth season without getting cut, and I’d probably say Thompson was their third-best fifth-round pick from 2005 to 2013. I try to make these preseason positional analyses only about players who are on the team, but since Thompson got cut during my little hiatus I’d had that sitting in me for a while. Now back to talking about players still on the roster.
Offseason positional analysis bad prediction #2: every tight end who makes the team was mentioned in the post. The Titans add veteran Anthony Fasano, late of the Chiefs, in free agency, and he will be on the opening day roster barring something shocking. In the big free agency roundup post, I declared “he’ll be the #2 tight end to Walker, a decent in-line blocker, and somebody who can turn 8-yard passes into the soft spot in zones into 9-yard gains.” I spent a very modest amount of time watching his 2014 play in Kansas City, and have nothing to add to update that prediction. There’s a bit of an open question about how many passes he might actually catch. My first answer is “not enough that it should matter for your fantasy team outside AFC South-only leagues unless Walker gets hurt.” It will depend some on the receivers, and of course the quarterback, but I wouldn’t expect more than 25. He’s the (relative) graybeard of the group, having turned 31 in April.
The Titans really missed Craig Stevens when went down with an injury in Week 5 last year. He’s a solid inline blocker, even if he never became the passing game player I thought he would be. I try to mention players in very rough depth chart order in these posts (it gets a bit complicated with differing roles and multiple starters, but that’s what I try to do). I’d compare him stylistically to Fasano, except that Fasano has a more extensive catching history and is probably considered more reliable in that area. He reworked his contract again, lowering his base salary from $3.5 million to $1.12 million (per Over The Cap, where I get my contract info these days), perfectly appropriate for a #3 tight end who will play special teams and be asked to block when he’s in the game. Basically, I expect him to have the low expectations role I thought Taylor Thompson would have. If the Titans play offense the way I think they want to play offense, though, it wouldn’t surprise me if Stevens actually plays a decent amount. Since he doesn’t turn 31 until the end of this month, he’s the youngest player I’ve yet profiled.
Offseason positional analysis bad prediction #3: I did not expect the Titans to retain Chase Coffman, whom I still consider a replacement-level receiving tight end. Given the running backs, wide receivers, and offensive line, I doubt there’s room for a fourth tight end on the roster. Then again, the Titans have consistently shown they like Coffman a lot more than I do and neither Fasano nor Stevens offers any dynamism as a receiving option (not that Coffman offers much against NFL first-stringers, but…). Since he’s only 28 (29 in November), he’s practically a spring chicken.
Dorin Dickerson is on injured reserve with what was reported to be an Achilles injury. The other tight ends on the roster are Philip Supernaw and Tevin Westbrook. I covered Westbrook in the UDFAs post; he’s basically a mini-tackle. Supernaw spent time with the Chiefs and Ravens last year. He’s closer to the Fasano mix of solid blocker and reliable, but not much more, receiving option. I think there should be a practice squad spot for a younger version of Coffman and Dickerson, in case the age curve really does come crushing down on Walker, but that player is not on the team.
Conclusion-Type Things
It’s easy to see why Ken Whisenhunt said he felt pretty good about the tight ends, since the Titans have three reliable, experienced veterans. All are older than I’d prefer but should be useful contributors in 2015.
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