Programming note: Life happens. No preseason game two detailed review coming. Game three will get some sort of review, likely one that won’t take forever to write (unless maybe if I win the lottery).
I did one of these when training camp opened, and now it is time for an update.
That was close to a month ago. The Titans have been practicing most days of that month, and have played two preseason games. We have a better idea of the depth chart, thanks to (a) the Titans releasing an unofficial depth chart and (b) revealed preference showing us which players the Titans have put on the field first in preseason games.
Then again, the roster I came up with for this post still has almost all of the same names as my prediction a month ago. Why is that?
1. Very few jobs are actually open for competition. 40 or more players on the roster are live boy/dead girl safe, for some combination of lack of depth, past performance, future potential, and/or admission of error reasons.
2. I’m still the same guy. I try to rethink my assumptions as best as I can and challenge what I think, but it takes a lot to change my view of things where I have at least a semi-informed opinion of things. Two preseason games is evidence, but it’s weak evidence that causes me to rethink relatively little about what I already believed of players.
3. The most interesting questions are at the edges of the roster, where the Titans could plausibly go in different directions. Dick LeBeau’s past teams have kept at least six defensive linemen, eight linebackers, and nine defensive backs. With an even split likely between offense and defense, how do you allocate the two remaining spots? Practice squad eligibility of other players is involved here.
One thing I did for this roster prediction but did not do in my prior one was to think about the gameday 46-man roster, and which players might make the team but not be dressed on a weekly basis. This affected some of my thinking on the margins.
Here is my current thinking at each position.
QB (3): Marcus Mariota, Zach Mettenberger, Charlie Whitehurst
Analysis: Chalk, chalk, chalk, with no drama whatsoever.
RB/FB (5): Antonio Andrews, David Cobb, Jalston Fowler (FB), Dexter McCluster, Bishop Sankey
Analysis: I thought in my first post this might be an interesting question mark. Instead, they’re high on Andrews and the only theoretical question for me at this point is on McCluster. Ken Whisenhunt has a long history of liking gadget backs, so I doubt he shares the concerns others have about McCluster’s lack of role.
TE (3): Anthony Fasano, Craig Stevens, Delanie Walker
Analysis: Three pretty chalky names in my book, but the question is whether they keep a fourth player at the position. Given that the Titans will be keeping three quarterbacks, that means a spot for a fourth tight end, a sixth receiver, or a ninth lineman. I don’t like either candidate for the fourth tight end as much as the candidates for the other spots. If I kept a fourth tight end, it would be Phillip Supernaw. Chase Coffman is too one-dimensional and does not have enough upside for a marginal roster spot, plus like last year he might be on the street at midseason.
WR (5): Harry Douglas, Dorial Green-Beckham, Justin Hunter, Hakeem Nicks, Kendall Wright
Analysis: Same names as the preseason. I thought Nicks was a marginal roster player before camp opened, but it now seems clear he’ll play a role. That makes five locks and Tre McBride the candidate for the floating offensive spot. The Titans haven’t privileged seventh-round picks in the past, and I just haven’t seen a strong enough argument to keep McBride even though there’s a decent chance they’ll lose him if they cut him. With waiver wire pickups possible, they could choose to keep him initially and try to hide him; teams have done this in the past in an attempt to be cleaver.
OL (9): Byron Bell, Andy Gallik, Taylor Lewan, Jamon Meredith, Jeremiah Poutasi, Brian Schwenke, Byron Stingily, Fernando Velasco
Analysis: The Titans have surprised me plenty of times with the decisions they’ve made, but Andy Levitre does seem on the way out the door. Bell, Lewan, Poutasi, Schwenke, and Warmack are the starters. Stingily is a backup tackle. Meredith has been on the same left guard/right tackle switcheroo as Bell and provides necessary depth there. Gallik is a draft pick. Can the Titans really go into a season with rookie Gallik as the only backup behind Schwenke, who’s missed time both NFL seasons with injury? I can’t do it, thus nine offensive linemen and Velasco’s spot on the team.
DL (7): Angelo Blackson, Jurrell Casey, Sammie Hill, DaQuan Jones, Karl Klug, Ropati Pitoitua, Al Woods
Analysis: Same seven names as in the preseason. I don’t love Sammie Hill as much as Ray Horton did, but beating up the Falcons and Rams lines does not tell me Al Woods is ready to replace him. If the Titans decide they have to have a spot elsewhere, Pitoitua seems like the player to get axed. If they keep a player not on the list, I’d prefer it to be Toby Johnson to any of the other options, even if he was understandably less impressive against the Rams than he was against the Falcons.
LB (8): Zach Brown, Zaviar Gooden, Jonathan Massaquoi, Derrick Morgan, Deiontrez Mount, Brian Orakpo, Avery Williamson, Wesley Woodyard
Analysis: Some chalk at the starters, and Woodyard is chalky to me as well. But the backups are a complete mystery. With UDFAs Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil and J.R. Tavai still injured, I can’t put them on the team even if they played before Mount in the first preseason game. I wouldn’t assume whichever players make the initial cut will make it to Tampa for the season opener. I made one change at inside linebacker; I had an extra spot last time and give it to Justin Staples for special teams value. Gooden is entering his third season, and you have to give high draft picks three seasons, per Ruston Webster.
DB (10): Josh Aubrey, Perrish Cox, Michael Griffin, Marqueston Huff, Jason McCourty, Cody Riggs, Da’Norris Searcy, Coty Sensabaugh, Daimion Stafford, Blidi Wreh-Wilson
Analysis: LeBeau has kept ten most seasons, and I see ten names the Titans could keep. Riggs has taken advantage of the injury issues and seems pretty likely to take a spot at this point. Aubrey is the tenth name in my eyes. I had nine, with Khalid Wooten in the ninth spot, in my initial prediction. Aubrey seems to have passed him, though.
Special Teams (3): Beau Brinkley, Brett Kern, Ryan Succop
Analysis: Chalk, chalk, chalk. McCluster is the punt returner. The kick returner might be a committee; Andrews and McCluster would be my preferred options from the current 53, not that I like either for that role.
Comparative Analysis
On this prediction, not on my earlier prediction: Josh Aubrey, Cody Riggs, Jamon Meredith
Not on this prediction, on my earlier prediction: Andy Levitre, Justin Staples, Khalid Wooten
On my prediction, not on Paul Kuharsky’s prediction: Josh Aubrey, Zaviar Gooden, Fernando Velasco
On Paul’s prediction, not on my prediction: Chase Coffman, Mike Martin, Will Poehls
Why I’m Probably Wrong
Injuries. Zaviar Gooden, the young outside linebackers, Jason McCourty, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, and others are currently banged up with injuries of an indeterminate severity and with an open projected return date. Depending on when they return, the Titans will have to adjust the roster to make sure they have enough players to field the 46 they want even with the injuries. This helps some players (Cody Riggs) and hurts others (Justin Staples, on my prediction).
Waiver wire claims. I care more about getting players who are on the roster Week 1 in Tampa Bay. My predictions are what I’d do if I had to choose the 53 for that game based on who the Titans have on the roster right now. If the Titans know they are be likely to making up to a couple waiver wire claims, they can be strategic in their choice of the initial 53.
Positional distribution. I set a lot of stock in the roster looking like it’s looked for these coaches in the past. Thus, I can’t possibly see them keeping 8 defensive linemen and expect 10 defensive backs. But each year is a different team and a different roster, and there’s no guarantee the future will look like the past.
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