I’m pleased to be joined once again by Nate Dunlevy to preview the upcoming Titans-Colts game. Nate and I have been answering each other’s questions about this matchup since about 2008, so if you’ve been reading for a while you’re familiar with his name and work. Nate writes for the Colts site Colts Authority and was a contributor to CA’s 2014 Colts Authority Annual. He is the author of two books, Blue Blood on the Colts and the novel Invincible, Indiana. His wife Deb is also an author, and I liked her YA fantasy The Book of Sight more than I liked Invincible (and she recently finished her fourth book in a planned five-book series). You can (and should) follow him on Twitter. In addition to answering my questions, he also sent me questions. You can read my answers to those over at Colts Authority.
On with the Q&A.
Total Titans: The Colts have been shut out in the first half of their first two games, the first time that’s happened two weeks in a row since Before Peyton Manning. How would you assess responsibility/blame for that among Andrew Luck, the offensive line, the “skill position” players, and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton?
Nate Dunlevy: In order:
1. Luck. According to PFF, his pressure rate is almost identical to what it was in 2014. He just isn’t making the throws. He has been inaccurate, indecisive and just played poorly.
2. The wideouts. While there are more plays to made than what Luck has made, his receivers haven’t cloaked themselves in glory. Drops and bad routes have been common.
3. The special teams. Two missed field goals, turnovers in the return game and bad field position have led to long drives with no points.
4. The offensive line. It sucks, but it sucks in a normal way that it always sucks.
5. Pep Hamilton. I like what he’s doing, to be honest. I’ve seen cool play design and bad execution.
Total Titans: Macro-level perspective, where is Andrew Luck as a quarterback two weeks into his fourth season? How has he grown since he was a young player, or do we still see the same mix of skills from past seasons?
Dunlevy: Well, this is the million dollar question. In theory, by a player’s fourth year, he should be essentially complete. Judging by Luck’s 2014, he didn’t have much room to grow, except in the area of consistency.
Fast-forward to 2015, and we find him making mistakes he never made in his first three years and playing the worst football of his life. While some quarterbacks will add a new wrinkle to their games later in life (Peyton Manning had two reinventions in his), it’s safe to say Luck is who he is now.
Whether that’s a top-five passer or not, we’ll find out by the end of this year.
Total Titans: Beyond Vontae Davis, who’s in the concussion protocol [ed. note: Davis has since cleared the protocol], what’s the strength of this Colts defense? Is there one aspect you look at and can have confidence in, or will it just vary in quality from week to week based on the matchups?
Dunlevy: No. Indy has no real consistency on D. The defensive line is better than it has been in years, but the team has terrible coverage linebackers, no pass rush and a questionable pair of safeties. Indy’s D has played credibly so far, but it has the potential to be very very bad.
Total Titans: How much has the 0-2 start affected your view of who the 2015 Colts are likely to be? Best team in the AFC South? Clear best team in the AFC South? AFC (co-)favorites and a strong Super Bowl contender?
Dunlevy: Other than the natural drop in odds that comes from losing two winnable games, it doesn’t change much about my assessment of them. They will go as far as Luck can take them.
I didn’t believe they had passed the Pats, but I see no one else in the conference who scares me either. If Luck’s play improves, Indy will be good. If it doesn’t, they who even knows who comes out of the South.
Total Titans: Is there anything I haven’t asked you about you’d like Titans fans to know about the Colts?
Dunlevy: Andre Johnson has looked terrible. His struggles have not helped Luck’s cause. He very well may be done.
Total Titans: Finally, if you’d care to make any predictions about the game, score or otherwise, feel free. Or don’t if you’re not into that.
Dunlevy: Colts 19 Titans 17. I think it’s a close game, but one Indy has to win.
Thanks to Nate for another great Q&A. Don’t forget to check out Colts Authority for my answers to his questions and lots of great Colts coverage.
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