After quarterback, running back, fullback, and wide receiver, the next stop on our trip around the Tennessee Titans position by position as we head into the 2016 offseason is a look at the tight ends.
The last couple positional analyses I’ve done may have been a bit downer-fullback is mostly irrelevant, even in Tennessee, and running back and wide receiver were clearly not strengths for the 2015 Titans. So, getting to write about a position where the Titans had three actually good players is a pleasant change.
And the Titans recognized that, using their tight ends a lot, especially once Mike Mularkey became the interim coach. In the final nine weeks of the regular season, the Titans used multiple tight ends on 68% of their offensive snaps. To put that in perspective, no other team did so more than 48% of the time (and the data I have probably includes extra OL as tight ends, so the true difference is probably even bigger since that wasn’t something the Titans did). As the wide receiver depth chart improves, the Titans probably will be somewhere much closer to the rest of the NFL when it comes to tight end usage, but it does seem likely they’ll continue to use tight ends a lot.
Well, at least as long as they have tight ends that are worth using. And they should, since the top two tight ends are under contract for 2016 and the third could probably re-signed or replaced for the right price. So, yay, something positive!
I’m pessimistic on old tight ends, because most old receiving tight ends have been bad receiving tight ends. And since I expressed my pessimism on Delanie Walker and age heading into the 2014 season, he’s made me look like a complete idiot by having probably the two best seasons of his career. I wasn’t quite as pessimistic this past preseason, just predicting a decline from his over 14 yards per catch in 2014 to something more like 12 (actual numbers: 94 catches on 133 targets, 11.6 ypc, 6 touchdowns, on 689 snaps over 15 games, 66.4% of total, 54.0% under Whisenhunt (65.1% when active), 76.7% under Mularkey). Not only did he put career highs in catches and receiving yards and match his career high in touchdowns, he put up great efficiency numbers, ranking fifth in the league in receiving value among tight ends per Football Outsiders (I write for FO perma-disclaimer). One of the keys was he quickly developed the sort of great rapport with Marcus Mariota that Kendall Wright (and none of the other receivers, for that matter) ever really did. Sure, the tipped pass catches against the Saints, especially the long touchdown, were lucky breaks, but Walker had a great season as a receiver even without them while also contributing some fine blocking work.
I feel like I should probably have more to say about the player who was the Titans’ non-QB offensive MVP, but just the basics suffice for me: really valuable receiver, good all-around player who fits well in multiple tight end sets, should play a big role again doing similar things in 2016. I’m still worried about his age and future performance, but that’s true of players who turn 32 in August at basically every position where players have to run.
My snarky comment after the Titans signed Anthony Fasano was he excelled at turning catches 8 yards downfield into gains of 9 yards. Then he goes out and averages over 11 yards per catch, more than two yards over what he did the past three seasons (26 catches on 42 targets, 11.1 ypc, 2 touchdowns) and only 23% of his YAC on throws from Mariota came on the play where the Browns forgot to cover him. Like Walker, he had strong efficiency numbers when playing with Mariota (17.7% DVOA, just behind Walker’s 18.3%), though like Walker his average target came 2.5 yards closer to the line of scrimmage when Zach Mettenberger was throwing him the ball. Like Walker, he also did a nice job as a blocker, is under contract for 2016, I’m concerned about him because he turns 32 (in March), I feel like I should have more to say about him than I do, and his 2016 should look a lot like his 2015 (550 snaps, 53.0% of total, 51.9% under Whisenhunt, 53.9% under Mularkey).
If you’re a team like the Giants, the third tight end, if there is one, barely plays. If you’re the Titans, Craig Stevens plays more snaps than any running back or the wideout with the third-most snaps (433, 41.7% of total, 41.3% under Whisenhunt, 42.0% under Mularkey). Anecdotally, I’d say he got the nod over Fasano in many 1-TE run sets, and he and Fasano was the more run-oriented 2-TE set. He caught a couple passes-12 on 16 targets, 121 yards, 2 touchdowns, basically matching 2010’s fantasy numbers for the second-most prolific receiving season of his career. He’s set to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. The Titans could opt to bring him back to do basically the same thing he’s done, but with a top two of players who’ll be 32 when Week 1 kicks off, I’d prefer more upside than another 32-year-old when Week 1 kicks off offers.
Phillip Supernaw was the fourth tight end. He was primarily a special teams player, playing just 66 snaps on offense all season (6.4% of total, 5.1% under Whisenhunt, 7.4% under Mularkey). His most prominent play on offense was a bad one-the fumble on the attempted comeback drive against the Jaguars in Jacksonville (for the season, 3 catches on 4 targets, 32 yards, 10.7 ypc, 0 touchdowns). He was flagged for 6 penalties, third on the team, for 61 yards, most on the team. He’s under contract for 2016, so consider him a candidate for the TE3 job.
Chase Coffman was cut after Week 6, playing 38 snaps in the Week 2 Browns game Delanie Walker missed but otherwise a healthy inactive, so I don’t have to talk about him. I almost forgot about Dorin Dickerson, who spent the season on injured reserve after an Achilles injury last offseason. Kevin Greene was added to the practice squad during the season and signed to a futures contract at season’s end. Like Taylor Thompson, he’s a defensive end to tight end conversion project and was previously with San Francisco, Cincinnati, Carolina, and Chicago, at least, since entering the NFL from USC in 2014.
Conclusion-Type Thoughts
The Titans will use a lot of multiple tight end sets. They have a very solid, experienced top two. They need at least one more player-I’m not sure that player is under contract for 2016. There are a couple candidates for additional tight ends, if the Titans keep more (I hope to have a separate post on what the shape of the roster in 2016 might look like). I wouldn’t mind seeing a mid-round pick that brings some youth and upside to the position, especially since that player wouldn’t have to be a key contributor in 2016. All in all, I feel as good about the depth and top end of this position group as I do any on the roster.
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