PROGRAMMING NOTE: ICYMI, I’m retiring from regular Titans blogging, effective March 9. So, free agency today, draft tomorrow, and something else Wednesday as I ride off into the sunset of Twitter.
The legal tampering period starts today at 11 A.M. Central time, so there’s a chance we know soon which players the Titans will have interest in.
The first question is, just how active will the Titans be in free agency? Recently, they’ve tended to alternate between going heavy and light in free agency. 2012 was not that big, 2013 they really went in in a big way, 2014 featured barely any moves, and last year they really re-made the offense and signed several big free agents on defense. That suggests to me they’re not likely to go that big into free agency this year.
The other things I think about also suggest they won’t be that heavily into free agency. They’re not on the short list of teams that absolutely have to spend a lot of money to get into CBA compliance. They have a lot of cap space, but they’re not in the top five and a long way from a team like Jacksonville at the top. They don’t have as many holes on the depth chart as you might think for so awful a team. They’re not a team that’s really close to winning the Super Bowl, so adding the right player or three isn’t the difference between hoisting “Tiffany” and a too-early exit.
But of course this is a huge exercise in speculation. This is the first time Jon Robinson has entered the offseason as an NFL general manager. We don’t know his exact philosophy, and how he’ll make decisions in the new role. It’s one thing to say in January or February you won’t get caught up in the early free agent frenzy and the best values are found in the second wave a week or three later and quite another to sit back and let the cream of the crop grabbed by other teams, including division rivals. Second, while the Titans don’t have many nominal holes, there are many, many non-holes they could look to upgrade by pursuit free agents at various levels. This post is therefore much more “Tom tries to think like Jon Robinson might think, without having any actual knowledge” than I normally prefer, but I don’t know how to write this post otherwise.
So, here are some positions the Titans might look to address in free agency, and players at various levels who might appeal to them.
Running Back
Analysis: I’m not going to rehash the positional analysis, but the Titans could easily justify adding multiple backs. As I recently noted, I believe the Titans would like having separate “run game” and “passing game” backs, and the lead run game back is not on the roster right now. The general need at the position has led to obvious connections with top free agents Doug Martin and Lamar Miller. I really doubt the Titans add either player. Miller has only one 20-carry game in his career, and I can’t see the Titans being comfortable penciling him for 320 carries. He might fit the passing back role, but he’ll probably too much money from somebody else.
Rather, I’m looking at more specialized players. I think a player like Alfred Morris, LeGarrette Blount, or Stevan Ridley might be a player that appeals to them. All three are grinders who don’t have many catches, but I doubt that’s a drawback to the Titans.
Wide Receiver
Analysis: Going back to my recent notes, and again without rehashing the positional analysis, the Titans need a veteran receiver but I wouldn’t put it as a huge priority so I don’t expect them to go after one of the top receivers in the league. I’ll repeat when convenient that I wrote before the draft I wanted the Titans to draft Marvin Jones (my 2012 mock, though of course Brockers, Kendricks, and Jackson were off the board in the actual draft), but he’ll get more money than they want to give him.
Robinson noted in an interview last week on 102.5 that there are some good role receivers, and I think that’s the area the Titans will look to address. There are a couple obvious dots to connect, as Leonard Hankerson and Roddy White both played in Atlanta for new offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie (and White dates back to Atlanta’s Mike Mularkey era, of course). Both fit the mold of bigger outside receivers, an area where I think the Titans are still lacking. Neither should be expected to beat man coverage on a regular basis, which means they shouldn’t be more than the fourth receiver. A pair of former Raiders, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Andre Holmes, are cut from similar cloth, and have the sort of special teams experience that makes it easier to keep a fourth or fifth receiver up on gameday.
Offensive Tackle
Analysis: This is much more of a binary question. The Titans need a starting offensive tackle. Do they add him in free agency or the draft? If it’s in free agency, then I expect that player to be a right tackle, rather than one of the left tackles out there. So, Mitchell Schwartz or Andre Smith, not Russell Okung or Donald Penn. If they don’t want to spend that much money, then Joe Barksdale, a player they kicked the tires on last offseason, or Bobby Massie, who began his NFL career under Russ Grimm in Arizona.
If they are more interested in Laremy Tunsil at #1 than the starter-level tackle free agents, then they could look for a veteran swing guy. Names with an obvious connection include Byron Bell and Byron Stingily, and some other guys of likely similar price tag.
Interior Offensive Line
Analysis: Again without rehashing the positional analysis, I think the Titans are in a bit of a bind at center and signing Alex Mack makes a boatload of sense even if it means paying him $30 million over the next three seasons. Also again without rehashing the positional analysis, I really doubt the Titans pay a ton of money for a left guard, and that goes especially so if they spend a lot of resources on finding a starting tackle and a center. So, I’m not on the Kelechi Osemele train.
In that aforementioned radio interview, Robinson noted the offensive line free agency class has some guys that could potentially help us. He also has spoken of positional versatility. That plus the obvious New England tie has me thinking the Titans could be interested in Ryan Wendell, who’s played both center and guard. My guess is they’d probably be more interested in him than in Ben Jones or Stefen Wisniewski, whom they might view as more C-only players (yes, I’ve seen Jones play guard before, and that’s why I wrote what I did).
Nose Tackle
Analysis: I thought the Titans would have re-signed Al Woods by now. It may still happen. If it doesn’t, there are a ton of nose tackles out there. I don’t know which of Akiem Hicks, Steve McLendon (Dick LeBeau tie), B.J. Raji, Sealver Siliga, or Ian Williams, to name a few guys of varying type and probably price point, would appeal to them, but this is a signing I’d think is likely and would rate only after it happens instead of trying to pick my favorite or the best fit.
Outside Linebacker
Analysis: Again, won’t rehash the whole positional analysis, but the Titans really need better depth here. This is a strong draft possibility, but I think their depth is bad enough they could double-dip with a couple players. After paying so much money to Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo last offseason, I don’t see them shelling out the $7 million-plus for a starter-type, but I wonder if a player like Mike Neal, late of the Packers, might appeal to them. LeBeau gives them an obvious link to LaMarr Woodley, but I don’t think another aging veteran is really what they need.
Inside Linebacker
Analysis: Third interview tidbit: “defensively, there’s a couple linebackers that would make us a little faster.” I doubt the Titans are that interested in paying Jerrell Freeman or Danny Trevathan as much money as it would take to get them, so I’d look a little lower on the scale. Obvious link: Sean Spence, a former second-round pick of LeBeau’s Steelers, whose career has been hampered by a nasty knee injury that took out his first two seasons. Bruce Carter was released by the Buccaneers after that interview, but he might also be a fit. Demario Davis, who had a disappointing 2015 with the Jets, has 3-4 experience and might fit the mold.
Cornerback
Analysis: I thought they were probably done with big moves after signing Brice McCain, but Ian Rapoport apparently indicated they still had some interest in the position. I doubt they’re looking at any of the big dollar free agents. My guess is any interest is likely to be strongest in reasonably-priced outside corners. Robinson indicated he valued positional versatility, but between McCain and Perrish Cox, they have a couple guys who can play in the slot already. I don’t have a good feel for who they might want and why.
Safety
Analysis: Another obvious depth chart hole, and this one I think gets filled in free agency. The rumored link with Tashaun Gipson makes a ton of sense to me, and N.B. his price tag probably starts around the $6 million per year Da’Norris Searcy got last year so don’t panic if a reporter tweets out he’s looking for $7-8 million a year. Eric Weddle’s versatility would appeal to them, of course, but he probably wants more money and a better team. George Iloka will get a zillion dollars, probably from somebody. Would Walter Thurmond appeal to them? Again, I don’t have a great feel for exactly who will be first through fifth on their priority list, but I strongly believe they’ll add one of those players.
Conclusion-Type Thoughts
As a reminder, this is a highly speculative post. We don’t have a track record to evaluate what Jon Robinson is likely to do, so identifying free agents the Titans might be interested in is largely an exercise in connecting dots and trying to think through things. I doubt the Titans go that heavily into free agency. They certainly won’t sign anywhere close to all the players I’ve mentioned, and many of the players I’ve mentioned might be off their radar for one reason or another I either don’t know or didn’t consider as seriously as I should have. Thus, what I’ve tried to do in this post is highlight a number of players outside the biggest names the Titans might sign, rather than hitting on just the biggest names.
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