Unlike most Goal Breakdown posts, this one is about something beyond the play of the Blue Jackets players on a specific goal. This post is about everyone’s favorite grinder, Derek Dorsett (it is amusing to me that Jared Boll versus Dorsett used to be a semi-legitimate argument). Dorsett potted a very respectable 12 goals last season, mostly the product of his no frills, pucks-on-goal, crash-the-net style of hockey. However, I have noticed a marked difference in his game in the offensive zone this season. He has been trying to dangle defensemen, has passed up solid shot opportunities to make a fancy pass, and has tried to stickhandle around guys instead of bulling through them. This is a problem. Derek Dorsett has been a top six player this season in terms of ice time and linemates, and he is playing like he thinks he is a “top six player”. The issue is that for him to be successful in a top six role, he needs to keep playing like the grinder he is. A lot of NHLers have had very successful careers playing top six roles while playing the way Dorsett is suited to. Think about David Clarkson in New Jersey currently, with Tomas Holmstrom as the all-time example. Those guys rarely, if ever, try to dangle anyone.
Beyond his offensive game, the defensive ability of Derek Dorsett is what gives him significant value over the Jared Boll’s of the world. He has been a reliable penalty killer and played sound hockey against the opponents best players. A major part of this is having on-ice awareness of everything going on. For Dorsett to remain a reliable player, the coaching staff needs to feel confident he is going to make the right decisions with and without the puck. Which brings us to a breakdown of the Ducks first goal Monday night.
Two major issues with Dorsett here:
1) The absolute lack of awareness of the game situation. He picks up the puck with 4 seconds of 4v4 hockey left before it becomes a Ducks powerplay. Dorsett HAS to be aware of this. As a coach, I would not feel comfortable putting out a player on the PK or against good players if he is not able to be aware of the game situation and make the proper play.
2) That proper play was most definitely not an attempted toe drag. The play was sort of a 2 on 1, but with two Ducks backcheckers right there. Dorsett has to do one of three things there: make sure that pucks gets in deep and stays there for as long as possible, get a hard pass through to Nikitin (so if it misses it goes into the far corner), or gets a shot on net (my choice as it could have left a rebound for Nikitin). There are some players skilled enough to pull off the toe drag in this situation, however none of them play for the Blue Jackets (Anisimov excepted, but only when he’s on his game).
With that being said, onto the breakdown.
The above shot is included just to show how this play starts. Note Dorsett curling up ice, facing towards the limping Adrian Aucoin and the about to change lines Derek Mackenzie.
Now we have Dorsett breaking in alone, while Aucoin and Mackenzie get off the ice and Nick Drazenovic and John Moore hop on (albeit very slowly).
Nikitin jumps up into the play here, which on its own isn’t a terrible decision, provided Dorsett doesn’t turn the puck over and Moore/Drazenovic get on the ice quickly and cover for him. Nikitin doesn’t get below the circles and has at least two Ducks in front of him at all times.
Now we jump ahead to see the other aspect that contributed to this goal beyond Dorsett’s mistakes. The screencap at 4:15 shows Drazenovic jumping on the ice. Seven seconds has passed and he’s moved about ten feet. This would be fine if he were defending someone, but there are no Duck players near him. Further, last we saw Aucoin was ten seconds prior to this screencap and he was 20 feet from the bench. John Moore took his sweet time getting on the ice, and coupled with Nikitin’s pinch and Dorsett’s turnover, you have Peter Holland breaking in completely untouched.
Now, the slow line change and borderline pinch by Nikitin are not on Dorsett, but he HAS to realize they are about to be shorthanded, they are changing lines, and that the other defenseman has jumped into the play. This is not the time for a toe drag. But this is far from the first time he’s tried that this season. I wish the NHL kept better turnover statistics, as Dorsett has only been credited with one turnover this season (and it did NOT come on this play). With that being said, there is strong statistical evidence on just how much Dorse is passing up shots this season compared to last year.
Dorsett’s time on ice is over two minutes higher than it was last season, and he’s play 2:07 more per game at even strength. Both years he played a lot on the PK, and little on the PP, but those numbers are about the same as last year. So with more time on ice, you would expect more shots out of him (were his shot rate to stay steady). Further to that, Dorsett is getting used in more offensive situations. His most common linemates have been Umberger and Anisimov (compared to Pahlsson and Vermette), and his offensive zone starts have jumped from a lowly 35% to 43.2%. In addition, he has been ending more shifts in the offensive zone, jumping from 46.5% to finishing 56.3% of his shifts in the opponents end. So he’s had a lot more time on ice, spent a higher percentage of that time in the offensive zone, and more talented linemates, yet his shots are down. One option might have been that this was due to deferring to his linemates; however, this is untrue as well, as last season Dorsett’s line averaged 23.6 shots per 60 minutes, compared to 20.5 this season.
With the context revealed, let’s look at Dorse himself. He put up shots at a rate of 7.3 shots per 60 minutes. This year, he is down to 6.05 shots per 60. That doesn’t sound like a huge total but it would have cost him a few goals over the course of the season. What’s worse is that it also takes away the secondary chances that are created off of rebounds, plus it accelerates the turnovers created. The next question is whether he’s just been missing the net more. But this also proves false. Dorse is averaging 7.18 shot attempts this season, compared to 9.23 last year (or his missed/blocked shot rate has dropped even more than his shot rate).
With all this said, what does he need to do? Check the title of this post. He needs to know his role. He needs to get back to being that player that worked his way from being a 7th round draft pick into a fringe NHLer, then from being a fringe NHLer to being a legitimate top 9 forward. While cliche, Dorsett needs to start putting pucks on net, crashing the crease, and avoid the dangles and turnovers that lead to mistakes like the Holland goal.
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