We’re officially at the halfway point, so I thought I would take a look back at my preseason individual goal predictions, the team predictions, and what to expect moving forward. First things first, lets start off with the team totals. My predictions had them finishing with a +2 goal differential over 82 games (or about +1 for 48 games), if they could raise their team save percentage from .903 to .910. Unfortunately, they are currently sitting at a -15 goal differential. The problem here hasn’t been just scoring or defense. I had them at 64 goals through 24 games and they are only 9 goals below that. On the defensive side, improvement was dependent upon raising the save percentage from .903 to .910, but it has actually dropped to .902. A jump to .910 would have reduced the first half goals against by 8. Aside from the predictions, the team has greatly improved so far this season. With league average shooting percentage and save percentage, the Jackets would be at a -6 goal differential (based on 60 goals for and 66 goals against). The Blue Jackets -60 full season goal differential from last year equates to a -17 over 24 games. For some perspective a -6 goal differential would tie them with Nashville, while a -17 would tie them with Edmonton.
Okay, deep breath. That was a lot to take in, but the gist of it is that the Jackets are slightly below where I predicted them in both goals for and goals against, while being much improved as a team over last season. Now onto the individual predictions. It has been proven time and again that the number of shots a player takes is a much better predictor of the goals they will score in the future than simply looking at their goals. With that in mind, I took a look at how many goals I predicted each Jacket to score over 48 games, how that translates to the number of games that player has played this season, and how many goals they should score in the remaining 24 games if they continue to take shots at their current rate. A big part of this is shooting percentage. There are very few players in the league who can consistently score on a high percentage of their shots (and the Jackets don’t have any of them), and most NHL players are will shoot very close to league average given enough shots on goal. With that in mind, lets take a look back and a look forward at every Jacket who has appeared in at least 10 games.
Forwards (League Average: 10.87%)
Dubinsky
Preseason Prediction: 9 goals, should have ~3g in 15 games played.
1st Half Results: 15gp, 23 shots on goal, 1g, 4.3% shot percentage.
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 37 shots and 5 goals.
Dubi has been about as unlucky as can be. He has scored on a career low percent of his shots on net, which should rebound in the second half (his career numbers are very close to league average). The Jackets have also scored on a very low percentage of their shots on net while Dubinsky is on the ice. This should also rebound over the second half, bringing his assist totals up with it.
Atkinson
Preseason Prediction: 11g, should have ~3g in 11gp.
1st Half Results: 11gp, 27 shots, 2g, 7.4 shot%.
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 59 shots and 6g.
Cam has also been a little unlucky, but players who put as many shots on net as he does are bound to to score plenty. For some perspective, Atkinson has been putting rubber on the net at the same pace as elite players such as Jonathan Toews, Matt Duchene, Mikko Koivu, Jordan Staal, Vinny Lecavalier, and Logan Couture. A few lucky bounces, and Atkinson will be scoring at a rate up with those players. Additionally, the Jackets as a team have been scoring at below league average with Cam on the ice. Like Dubi, this should bring his assist totals up in the second half.
Calvert
Preseason Prediction: N/A
1st Half Results: 21gp, 32 shots, 4g, 12.5%.
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 37 shots and 4g.
I didn’t do a preseason prediction for Calvert, as I was unsure whether he would be on the team and he did not play enough games last season nor have a good comparable player for me to do the analysis that I did for everyone else. In any case, I doubt I would have predicted him to be as good as he has been. His shooting percentage is slightly high, but it should not have any effect on his numbers in the second half, as even a slight decline there would still leave him doubling up his goal total. You many notice this trend, but Calvert’s linemates have also been scoring at a below average rate, and an increase here would bring his assist totals up.
Foligno
Preseason Prediction: 8g, should have 4g in 24gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 33 shots, 2g, 6.1%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 33 shots, 4g
Like Dubinsky, Foligno has been scoring at a very low rate and is a prime candidate for a big bounceback second half. He’s been putting pucks on net, but just hasn’t gotten the bounces so far this year. Like every Jackets forward so far, he should also see his assist totals shoot up in the second half.
Brassard
Preseason Prediction: 9g, should 4g in 22gp
1st Half Results: 22gp, 40 shots, 3g, 7.5%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 44 shots, 5g
Same song, different tune. He should see a slight uptick in his goals if they start going in, and his assists should go up as well.
Prospal
Preseason Prediction: 9g, should have ~5g in 24gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 46 shots, 9g, 19.6%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 46 shots, 5g
Three cheers for variety. Vinny has been one of the few Jackets who has been “lucky” so far this season. Not to say he hasn’t played well, but that 19.6 shooting percentage can’t stay that high. If it stay up, or even if it plummets to below league average, Vinny has already met my expectations for 48 games at the half way point. Good on the veteran. Also a positive, he has done this while seeing the Jackets score less with him on the ice than they should. Like everyone else mentioned so far, a rebound half by a bunch of teammates should see his assist totals increase.
Anisimov
Preseason Prediction: 6g, should have 2g in 19gp
1st Half Result: 19gp, 45 shots, 6g, 13.3%
2nd Prediction: In 24gp, should have 57 shots, 6g
This was really my only big miss. Anisimov has been a much better scorer this season than he has ever shown in the past. While his shooting percentage will probably fall a little in the second half, like Calvert it won’t make much of a difference. What should sky rocket is his assist rate, as they have been incredibly unlucky when Arty is on the ice.
Letestu
Preseason Prediction: 6g, should have 3g in 22gp
1st Half Results: 22gp, 37 shots, 5g, 13.5%
Second Half Prediciton: In 24gp, should have 40 shots, 4g
A slight miss here too, although Letestu is one of the few Jackets to be both scoring at above league average and seeing his on-ice teammates scoring above average. I would expect both his goal total and assist total to decline slightly in the second half. In other words, this is probably a good time to sell high on the pending unrestricted free agent.
Umberger
Preseason Prediction: 13g, should have ~7g in 24gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 53 shots, 4g, 7.5%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 53 shots, 6g
Umberger has been a disappointment, but by as much as I would have thought. He’s getting shots on net at a rate pretty close to where I had predicted, he just hasn’t been burying them. A league average shooting percentage would have him only a single goal back of where I thought he would be. Like most of his teammates, he should see his assists come up as well.
Johansen
Preseason Prediction: 9g, should have 3g in 16gp
1st Half Results: 16gp, 39 shots, 1g, 2.6%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 59 shots, 6g
Like Cam, the Johan finds him self with some pretty elite company in terms of getting pucks on net (tied with Corey Perry, Brad Richards and Jason Spezza). He also find himself with one of the worst shooting percentages of any forward in the league. In fact, it’s epically terrible. In the modern history of the NHL, only David Moss last season had a lower shooting percentage while still getting as many shots as Johansen. There is no way that keeps up considering the scoring ability he’s shown at the WHL and AHL level. Expect a big breakout second half, as his assists should jump as well.
Gillies
Preseason Prediction: 2g, should have ~1g in 12gp
1st Half Results: 12gp, 5 shots, 0g, 0%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 10 shots, 1g
There isn’t much to say about Colton Gillies that can’t be summed up by this one unbelievable fact: The Blue Jackets have yet to score a single goal while Gillies has been on the ice.
Mackenzie
Preseason Prediction: 3g, should have ~1g in 22gp
1st Half Results: 22gp, 16 shots, 3g, 18.8%
2nd Half Prediction: 24gp, should have 17 shots, 2g
Here is sell high candidate number two. DMac just does not generate much in the way of shots. There is just no way he can keep scoring at nearly double the league average rate. His assists will also likely drop, as his linemates have also been scoring above league average.
Boll
Preseason Prediction: 2g, should have 1g in 24gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 7 shots, 1g, 14.3%
Second Half Predictions: In 24gp, should have 7 shots, 1g
Boll doesn’t generate much in the way of shots, the team doesn’t get many shots on net while he’s on the ice, and they get pummeled with shots while he’s out there.
Dorsett
Preseason Prediction: 4g, should have 2g in 24gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 38 shots, 3g, 7.9%
Theoretical 2nd Half Prediction: 24gp, 38 shots, 4g
It’s a shame Dorse is out for the year, as he was having a good season, in spite of his low shooting percentage. He’d been a much more effective player over the last few weeks, and I’d like to think he read this article.
Defensemen (League Average: 5.29%)
Moore
Preseason Prediction: 1g in 48gp
1st Half Results: 13gp, 9 shots, 0%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 17 shots, 1g
Aucoin
Preseason Prediction: 1g in 48gp
1st Half Results: 18gp, 14 shots, 0g, 0%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 19 shots, 1g
Erixon
Preseason Prediction: 1g in 48gp
1st Half Results: 16gp, 12 shots, 0g, 0%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 18 shots, 1g
Johnson
Preseason Prediction: 5g, should have 2g in 20gp
1st Half Results: 20gp, 43 shots, 2g, 4.7%
2nd Half Predictions: In 24gp, should have 52 shots, 3g
Tyutin
Preseason Prediction: 3g, should have ~2g in 24gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 33 shots, 1g, 3%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 33 shots, 2g
Nikitin
Preseason Prediction: 5g, should have 2g in 20gp
1st Half Results: 20gp, 42 shots, 2g, 4.8%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 50 shots, 3g
Wisniewski
Preseason Prediction: 4g, should have 1g in 15gp
1st Half Results: 15gp, 30 shots, 3g, 10%
Theoretical 2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 48 shots, 3g
I lumped the defense together because they just get less shots than forwards and score on a lot less of them. What should be noted above is that only Wiz has been scoring above league average for defensemen. While Wiz is on the sideline for most of the remainder of the season the rest of the defense should see their goal totals jump ever so slightly. At some point all the point shots taken by the Jackets are going to start hitting shinpads and going in the net, instead of deflecting wide. And with the number of close games the Jackets have been involved in, those goals could make a huge difference.
One final note on luck: when looking at PDO (on-ice save percentage plus on-ice goals against average, a deeper explanation can be found here), it becomes very clear the Jackets have been an unlucky team. Columbus only has five players who have been “lucky”. Atkinson, Erixon, Letestu, Mackenzie, and Boll all have PDO’s over 1010. They only have four players who have seen average “luck” (990-1010 PDO): Prospal, Wisniewski, Umberger, and Nikitin. Finally, on the unlucky side you have the remaining twelve players : Dubinsky, Moore, Calvert, Brassard, Foligno, Aucoin, Anisimov, Johansen, Dorsett, Tyutin, Johnson, and Gillies all have PDO’s below 990.
So what does this all mean? It means the majority of the roster should see an uptick in goals (and therefore assists), only Prospal, Letestu and Mackenzie should be expected to have worse 2nd halves, and given the number of close games, it is very likely the Jackets see a nice little boost to the number of wins they pull off the rest of the season. Given that they are only 6 points back of the playoffs, I would not be at all shocked to see them make a serious run at the postseason.
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