At the halfway point of the season I wrote about the second half expectations for the Blue Jackets. I looked at my preseason goal predictions for each player, then predicted how I thought they would perform over the second half of the season. Before I got to that point, I briefly discussed the team results. At the outset of the season, I had predicted a total of 128 goals scored on the season. I was off by a bit here, as they came in at only 120. However, I was off by the same amount in their goals against, as I had predicted they would come in at 127 goals allowed over the full 48 game season. Instead, they finished with 119 goals against. Excuse me for a second while I pat myself on the bat for exactly nailing their goal differential. In my preseason predictions, I hit another point that I think probably raised some eyebrows at the time: that the Jackets offense would actually improve with Rick Nash off in New York. And believe it or not it did (barely). The Jackets scored 120 goals this season, or the equivalent pace of 205 goals over 82 games. Not a great number, but better than the 202 goals the Jackets scored in 2011-12.
Now for some of my less great predictions. I had nine Jacket forwards and possibly three defensemen hitting double digit goals (over 82 games). This would be about 6 goals over 48 games, which only seven forwards hit, and no defensemen (although Johansen, Johnson and Wisniewski all had 5). I had the Jackets creeping up near the top ten in goals scored (predicted 11th), and they were still firmly in the bottom third of the league. What I didn’t put as much effort into was goaltending. I had used numbers taken from an expected improvement of the Jackets goaltenders from an abysmal .903 save percentage, to a still below average .910. Obviously, Bob pushed the team well past this mark, to a stellar .920.
Sadly, here are the final two remarks of that preseason post: “…you have the the very first Columbus Blue Jackets season to result in a positive goal differential. Last season every team with a positive goal differential made the playoffs.” So while my statistical prediction was correct, the outcome was the outlier in not holding true to what numbers say will happen as a result.
As for the player predictions, I used the league average shooting percentage to calculate how often a player was likely to score considering the rate at which they generate shots. This has been proven a far more reliable predictor than straight goals, and I am quite happy with how they turned out here. Without any more words from me, lets get to the:
Forwards (League Average: 10.57%)
Brandon Dubinsky
Preseason Prediction: 9 goals, should have 5g in 29 games played
1st Half Results: 15gp, 23 shots on goal, 1g, 4.3% shot percentage
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 37 shots and 5 goals
2nd Half Results: 14gp, 27 shots on goal, 1g, 3.7% shot percentage
Season Total: 29gp, 60 shots on goal, 2g, 4.0% shot percentage
Dubinsky continued his run of terrible luck over the second half of the season. However, if you look at his shot totals, the chances are there. A league average shooting percentage would have put Dubi at 6 goals over his 29 games played, a little above where I thought he would be over the course of the season. This is a few straight years of low shooting percentages for him, so it may be time to lower the bar on what his true shooting percentage is. I can’t believe it is sub-defenseman levels though, so I would expect him to breakout a little next season.
Cam Atkinson
Preseason Prediction: 11g, should have 8g in 35gp
1st Half Results: 11gp, 27 shots, 2g, 7.4 shot%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 59 shots and 6g
2nd Half Results: 24gp, 64 shots, 7g, 10.9 shot%
Season Total: 35gp, 91 shots, 9g, 9.9 shot%
Cam continued to generate shots at a near elite level, generating shots in the second half of the year at the same rate as Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn, and Nathan Horton, among others. He finished the year at 66th overall in the NHL in shots per game, and second on the Jackets behind newcomer Marian Gaborik (at 3.2 shots per game, he finished tied for 20th). The difference between the first half of Cam’s season is less time missed due to injury and a little more puck luck. Those bounces that didn’t break for him in the first 11 games started hitting twine in the second half. He still finished the season a little below average in shot percentage, so he could have a massive breakout next season. A 5% jump in his shot rate (not crazy), coupled with a slightly above average shot percentage (again, not crazy) and a full season would look something like 230 shots on goal (2.8 per game, up from 2.6), for 28 goals on a 12.2% shooting percentage.
Matt Calvert
Preseason Prediction: N/A
1st Half Results: 21gp, 32 shots, 4g, 12.5%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 37 shots and 4g
2nd Half Results: 21gp, 31 shots, 5g, 16.1 shot%
Season Total: 42gp, 63 shots, 9g, 14.3 shot%
Calvert looks even on first glance to Atkinson, but when you start looking at shot totals and shooting percentages you can see that Atkinson just gets so many more shots than Matty. However, Calvert continued to score at a high rate, and when you look at his entire NHL career, he has consistently scored a lot of goals a low number of shots. Part of this might just be due to the way he plays, and how he rarely shoots when far away from the net. Calvert’s average shot distance is nearly 6 feet closer to the net than the Blue Jackets average. It might not be crazy to expect Calvert to continue scoring on a higher than average number of his shots. If he keeps up the hard work, crashing the net, hitting the corners, and finishing his chances, he could end up being consistently near 20 goals a year, even with a lower shot rate.
Nick Foligno
Preseason Prediction: 8g, should have 7g in 45gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 33 shots, 2g, 6.1%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 33 shots, 4g
2nd Half Results: 21gp, 36 shots, 4g, 11.1 shot%
Season Total: 45gp, 69 shots, 6g, 8.7 shot%
Foligno rebounded nicely after a slow start. He doubled his goal output, through both an increase in his shooting percentage and upping his shots per game slightly. Looking at his full season, had Foligno scored on a league average number of his shots, he would have exactly hit his expected goals per his preseason prediction. It would be fair to guess that Foligno should see a slight uptick in his goals for next year, as his career shooting percentage sits at 10.4%, almost exactly league average. I doubt Foligno will ever be a 20 goal scorer, but he should be able to consistently hit 14-18 goals per season.
Vinny Prospal
Preseason Prediction: 9g, should have 9g in 48gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 46 shots, 9g, 19.6%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 46 shots, 5g
2nd Half Results: 24gp, 39 shots, 3g, 7.7 shot%
Season Total: 48gp, 85 shots, 12g, 14.1 shot%
The raw goal total looks like Vinny fell off totally over the second half, but this was really just regression at work. His shots only fell by 7 over 24 games (or about less shot every 6 games), but his goals fell by 6. He still managed to finish the year with a very respectable shot and goal total, also boosted by a higher than average shooting percentage. Vinny has a career 10.8% mark, so I would expect him to produce closer to the second half of the year than the first. In any case, a fantastic year from the veteran. Without his scoring early in the year the Jackets wouldn’t have been close enough to make the second half as interesting as they did.
Artem Anisimov
Preseason Prediction: 6g, should have 4g in 35gp
1st Half Result: 19gp, 45 shots, 6g, 13.3%
2nd Prediction: In 24gp, should have 57 shots, 6g
2nd Half Results: 16gp, 23 shots, 5g, 21.7 shot%
Season Total: 35gp, 68 shots, 11g, 16.2 shot%
Strange year from Arty. His shot output went WAY down in the second half of the year, while his goal output stayed almost exactly the same. He was pretty banged up the second half, but the Jackets are going to need the first half Anisimov to be the real deal if they want to compete. His first half output is about a 20 goal season over 82 games. His second half is closer to a 12 goal season over 82 games, as it is impossible for a player to keep scoring on over 20% of their shots (only 15 players in NHL history have career shooting percentages over 20%, most of them played in the 1980’s, the last one retired in 1997).
Mark Letestu
Preseason Prediction: 6g, should have 3g in 22gp
1st Half Results: 22gp, 37 shots, 5g, 13.5%
2nd Half Prediciton: In 24gp, should have 40 shots, 4g
2nd Half Results: 22gp, 55 shots, 7g, 14.5 shot%
Season Total: 46gp, 92 shots, 13g, 14.1 shot%
Very interesting year for Letestu. This is a case of a guy having a solid first half, benefiting from some puck luck, getting some extra playing time for it, and then making the most of his added opportunities. Some perspective: 55 shots in 22 games is equal to 205 shots in 82 games, and scoring on 14.5% of 205 shots is about 30 goals. Letestu was playing like a 30 goal scorer over those last 82 games. He probably won’t keep up that shooting percentage, but if he falls to league average and still put 200 pucks on net, he’ll be soundly over the 20 goal barrier next year. That is a ton of production for a player on a $1.25m salary.
RJ Umberger
Preseason Prediction: 13g, should have 13g in 48gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 53 shots, 4g, 7.5%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 53 shots, 6g
2nd Half Results: 24gp, 43 shots, 4g, 9.3 shot%
Season Total: 48gp, 96 shots, 8g, 8.3 shot%
Disappointing season from Umberger, yet he still managed to finish second among Jackets forwards in shots on goal. Unfortunately, he put shots on net at the worst rate since his sophomore season and almost a full shot per game less than his average as a Jacket. Couple that with his worst shooting percentage in five years, and you have a recipe for underachievement. However, all is not lost. If Umby can stop the reduction in his shot rate and stay around 2 per game, play a full 82 games, and hit league average shooting percentage, he could get up near 18 goals next year (although for $4.6m he needs to be better). Even worse, along with a decrease in shots per game comes an increase in his average shot distance. His average shot this year was almost three feet further out than his average over the last four years. RJ needs to bear down, crash the net hard, and start potting some dirty goals again.
Ryan Johansen
Preseason Prediction: 9g, should have 8g in 40gp
1st Half Results: 16gp, 39 shots, 1g, 2.6%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 59 shots, 6g
2nd Half Results: 24gp, 45 shots, 4g, 8.89 shot%
Season Total: 40gp, 84 shots, 5g, 6.0 shot%
Interesting flip of stats for the Johan from the first half of the season to the second half. In the first half he was piling pucks on the net, up near the league leaders for awhile, but he couldn’t buy a goal. In the second half his shot rate dropped substantially, but he started scoring on a respectable percentage of his shots. If he can put pucks on net like he did in the first half of the season and score an average number of them, he would be in line for 21 goals over 82 games next season. With the improvement in his overall game over the season, I don’t think a leap of this sort is an unreasonable expectation.
Colton Gillies
Preseason Prediction: 2g, should have 1g in 27gp
1st Half Results: 12gp, 5 shots, 0g, 0%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 10 shots, 1g
2nd Half Results: 15gp, 12 shots, 1g, 8.33 shot%
Season Total: 27gp, 17 shots, 1g, 5.9 shot%
The Jackets got basically out-everythinged with Gillies on the ice. Outshot, outshot attempted, took more penalties than drawn, finished their shifts in the offensive zone at a team low rate, and on and on. Yet somehow Colton Gillies was a +1. That probably has something to do with the Jackets goalies (BOB!) putting up a .974 SV% when Gillies was out there. That is the highest on ice save percentage of any forward in the NHL with at least ten games played. And this wasn’t due to fantastic defensive play either, as the average shot against the Jackets without Gillies came from 34.9 feet, while the average shot against with Gillies on the ice came from 34.6 feet. Further, 43% of the shots allowed by the Jackets were from prime scoring areas, a figure identical to when Gillies was on the ice. In other words, Gillies had a LUCKY season and finished with 1g, 1a (in the same game), and +1.
Derek Mackenzie
Preseason Prediction: 3g, should have 3g in 43gp
1st Half Results: 22gp, 16 shots, 3g, 18.8%
2nd Half Prediction: 24gp, should have 17 shots, 2g
2nd Half Results: 21gp, 17 shots, 0g, 0 shot%
Season Total: 43gp, 33 shots, 3g, 9.1 shot%
Derek Mackenzie had a very Derek Mackenzien season. His shot rate was steady across the season, and pretty similar to his career rate. His final shooting percentage was almost exactly his career rate. He was good on faceoffs, killed penalties adequately, and didn’t do a whole lot else. He did help drive play forward, even though the Jackets were terribly out shot with him on the ice. He’s a fine player if he’s buried on the fourth line, but I don’t think anyone expects anything more than that out of him at this point.
Jared Boll
Preseason Prediction: 2g, should have 2g in 43gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 7 shots, 1g, 14.3%
2nd Half Predictions: In 24gp, should have 7 shots, 1g
2nd Half Results: 19gp, 12 shots, 1g, 8.33 shot%
Season Total: 43gp, 19 shots, 2g, 10.5 shot%
The list of Blue Jackets players who took less shots on goal per game than Jared Boll: David Savard (1 shot in 4 games), Sean Collins (0 shots in 5 games), and Jonathan Audy-Marchesseault (0 shots in 2 games). Beyond that, take what I said about Colton Gillies and apply it to Boll. He’s basically Colton Gillies but he fights (and had a winning record as a fighter for the first time in the NHL!).
Defensemen (League Average: 5.2%)
Adrian Aucoin
Preseason Prediction: 1g in 48gp
1st Half Results: 18gp, 14 shots, 0g, 0 shot%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 19 shots, 1g
2nd Half Results: 18gp, 12 shots, 0g, 0 shot%
Season Total: 36gp, 26 shots, 0g
Tim Erixon
Preseason Prediction: 1g in 48gp
1st Half Results: 16gp, 12 shots, 0g, 0%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 18 shots, 1g
2nd Half Results: 15gp, 9 shots, 0g, 0 shot%
Season Total: 31gp, 21 shots, 0g, 0 shot%
Jack Johnson
Preseason Prediction: 5g, should have 5g in 40gp
1st Half Results: 20gp, 43 shots, 2g, 4.7%
2nd Half Predictions: In 24gp, should have 52 shots, 3g
2nd Half Results: 24gp, 53 shots, 3g, 5.66 shot%
Season Total: 44gp, 96 shots, 5g, 5.2 shot%
Fedor Tyutin
Preseason Prediction: 3g, should have 3g in 48gp
1st Half Results: 24gp, 33 shots, 1g, 3%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 33 shots, 2g
2nd Half Results: 24gp, 23 shots, 3g, 13.0 shot%
Season Total: 48gp, 56 shots, 4g, 7.1 shot%
Nikita Nikitin
Preseason Prediction: 5g, should have 4g in 38gp
1st Half Results: 20gp, 42 shots, 2g, 4.8%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 50 shots, 3g
2nd Half Results: 18gp, 18 shots, 1g, 5.55 shot%
Season Total: 38gp, 60 shots, 3g, 5.0 shot%
James Wisniewski
Preseason Prediction: 4g, should have 3g in 30gp
1st Half Results: 15gp, 30 shots, 3g, 10%
2nd Half Prediction: In 24gp, should have 48 shots, 3g
2nd Half Results: 15gp, 32 shots, 2g, 6.3 shot%
Season Total: 30gp, 62 shots, 5g, 8.1 shot%
Like the second half predictions, I lumped the comments for the defensemen into one section. Aucoin and Erixon did about what was expected of them. Dalton Prout hadn’t played enough games yet to make the cut for my midseason post, so he doesn’t even appear here. The four higher scoring defensemen are where the interest lies. My predictions for Jack Johnson’s second half were basically dead on. Tyutin managed a huge uptick in shooting percentage, while dropping in shots that found the net (cue bitchy Canadan tweet). Wiz also did about exactly as he should have, as 32 shots in 15 games approximately equates to 51 in 24 (he was slated for 48). His shooting percentage dropped, but was still above league average. However, Wiz has consistently scored on a higher than league average number of shots over the last few seasons (although his career average is only 5.3%). Nikitin is the most interesting guy to me. His shots per game just plummeted in the second half of the season. He ripped 1.72 shots on goal per game last season, and was up to 2.1 in the first half this year. But for some reason he dropped to exactly one shot per game over his last 18 games. My hope is that his injuries are the explanation for this decline. in his first 74 games as a Jacket (roughly a full season), he put up 135 shots and 9 goals, on 6.67% shooting. Over 82 games (10g, 150 shots) this would have ranked him among the top 30 defensemen in the NHL for goals (t-15th) and shots (t-26th). Let’s hope he can return to that level of production.
Here’s how I concluded my midseason post: “So what does this all mean? It means the majority of the roster should see an uptick in goals (and therefore assists), only Prospal, Letestu and Mackenzie should be expected to have worse 2nd halves, and given the number of close games, it is very likely the Jackets see a nice little boost to the number of wins they pull off the rest of the season. Given that they are only 6 points back of the playoffs, I would not be at all shocked to see them make a serious run at the postseason.”
I whiffed badly on the Letestu point, but the rest stuck. The Jackets played an inordinate number of close games, and started getting points out of them. Most of the offense improved as expected, while only Vinny and DMac dropped off (as expected). They made a serious run at the postseason, about as serious as a run can get without actually making it. So what is there to take moving forward here? Well, my first takeaway is that this year was not a fluke. Yes, Bobrovsky performed at a level he is not likely to match longterm; but if he can be a workhorse over 82 games and split the difference between this season and his prior career numbers, we’re looking at consistent .920 goaltending. Know how many teams have had .920 goaltending and missed the playoffs? Four, with only the 2013 Blue Jackets doing it in the last four seasons. Combine that with an infusion of talent from the prospects or draft, a couple players continue to regress upward in goals, and you have the makings of a perennial playoff team.
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