When Sergei Bobrovsky began to show flashes of league leading greatness this past season it was both a blessing and a curse for the Blue Jackets front office. Last off season, Scott Howson traded for one guaranteed year of Bobrovsky in net. The theory was it was a chance to see if Bob could earn his keep as a starting goalie and provide a solution to the CBJ netminding woes. Boy did he. Bob ended the regular season with the second highest save percentage for all goalies (second only to Anderson) and fifth in GAA. He earned every bit of the Vezina trophy. The award recognition was a welcome celebration for both the goaltender and our club, but it also turned the tables squarely in the favor of Bob when it came to contract negotiations. That one year gamble has turned into a looming large payday for Bob.
So now, a week after Bob accepted his trophy in high fashion, we sit on pins and needles waiting for word that contract negotiations are moving forward to keep Bobrovsky in union blue.
Tensions have started to increase among the CBJ faithful with each day that has passed with no news. Worry has grown with word that the KHL was prepared to offer a ~$10MM/year contract to their native son. Some are confident in saying that Bob wants to stay in ‘the best league in the world, but as we near the free agency deadline, that worry has grown to include fear of an offer sheet from another NHL club. So far, all we have is posturing and opining, so let’s look at the feasibility of another NHL club stealing away Bobrovsky.
There are a few assumptions that underlie the theorizing here: first, the management team of Jarmo Kekalainen and John Davidson have show a surgeon’s precision in negotiating fair contracts thus far (see Calvert, Atkinson) – we’re expecting that trend to continue – specifically, Bob isn’t getting some insane contract just to keep him here (there are too many goaltender contract disasters looming to have the CBJ buy into an “any price” negotiation. See: Luongo, DiPietro, Fleury, Bryzgalov, etc.). Second, there’s a baseline guess that Bob’s annual cap hit will be around $4MM/year minimum. Third, it’s assumed that the KHL offer – real or not – isn’t what Bob ultimately wants.
With those parameters in place, let’s see who comes off the board immediately:
Excluded due to cap space: Philadelphia, Vancouver, Chicago, Tampa, Montreal
Excluded due to secure* #1 goalie situation: Washington, Boston, Los Angeles, Detroit, Nashville, New York Rangers, Buffalo, Florida, Toronto, St. Louis, Phoenix, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Dallas, Anaheim, Carolina, San Jose
That leaves us with the following clubs remaining. Let’s look at each of these:
Minnesota
Current G situation: Harding, Backstrom – Goalie problems arguably got them kicked out of the playoffs. And, Harding’s health situation must be considered when the team looks at long term goalie solutions. They may be in the market for a strong tender down the line. However, this is the same organization that just signed two monster contracts. They may shy away from one more.
Pittsburgh
Current G situation: Fleury, Vokoun – Despite votes of confidence from ownership, Fleury’s performance has his long-term starting role in question. Realistically, Pittsburgh has far too many other big fish to sign to worry about entering into a big-time goalie contract battle.
Colorado
Current G situation: Varlamov, Giguere – This pairing was horrible, both ranked in the bottom five for GAA this past season but that is also representative of the team’s performance as a whole – securing a 30th place finish. It’s hard to see the Avs looking to make a move, however, since they just traded their last #1 pick for Varlamov and he’s young. This pairing has earned some breathing room and Colorado is going to want their money for this season’s acquisitions.
Edmonton
Current G situation: Dubnyk, Khabibulin (UFA) – Dubnyk wasn’t great this year, but with a young offensive corps potentially coming of age and Dubnyk having one more year at $3.5 MM, it’s unlikely to think that the Oil will be looking to shake things up in net. At least this year.
New Jersey
Current G situation: Brodeur, Hedberg – The Devils have Brodeur, but his age is certainly an issue. Similarly, Hedberg, at 40, is just about finished. With no goalie prospects really active in their system, there’s a long shot chance that New Jersey would offer sheet Bob, go with a Brodeur / Bobrovsky tandem for one year and then send Martin off to retirement. (Wouldn’t the EA conspiracy theorists go mad if that happened?) But that’s a ton of money to put into goal tending even for one year. It seems more likely for them to be active next off season.
Calgary
Current G situation: Kiprusoff, MacDonald – Late last season signaled the beginning of the fire sale for Calgary. Kiprusoff is on record as saying he will retire and his every action in his final games reinforced this direction. If Kipper jumps, they gain back a lot of salary room and a big hole for a starting goalie. What works against them is that aforementioned ‘rebuild’. No goaltender at home in the Saddledome is going to get a ton of help from the players in front of him for the next few years, and you’d have to want to accept that kind of challenge – or be paid enough to try.
Islanders
Current G situation: Nabokov (UFA), Tim Thomas (UFA), Kevin Poulin (RFA), DiPietro – Due to some ‘creative’ deals last season, NYI stands ready with tons of cap room that is poised to grow with the sure loss of Thomas and a possible amnesty of Rick DiPietro. Nabokov was serviceable in the regular season, but his performance declined in the playoffs and at 37, it’s hard to see him as the future of the franchise in net. All three goalies (ok, really two) are in need of a new contract so this field is wide open.
In summary, looking at the possible dance partners, it really seems that the big threat to Blue Jackets’ negotiating power are Calgary and the Islanders. Calgary, however, is hampered not only by their self-professed plans to ‘re-build’ but the horrific flooding also raises new questions and areas to address for the club as a whole. There’s a lot of uncertainty now swirling around the Flames and unless the money is out of this world, it doesn’t seem to be a stable environment for any new goalie to take as home.
Let’s also look to the Islanders. If they do buy out DiPietro as many suspect, an offer to Bob would result in a great deal of money being directed towards their goaltending cadre (both active and not active). With Charles Wang demonstrating a more thrifty spending history this one doesn’t seem to pass the smell test.
What works in the Blue Jackets’ favor is that, unlike last off-season, the majority of clubs are not looking to make changes in net. This year is a buyer’s market compared to last year’s “goalie-palooza”. We’ve also got a management base that has solid experience, including having played in net (JD) successfully. Ultimately, while we may be an emotional roller coaster through the weekend, I’d wager we see #72 serve as home goaltender on the ice at Nationwide Arena come next season.
*While not all these goalies are currently signed, their tenure with their current club and performance seem to guarantee that they will stay where they are for next season as the starting netminder.
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