I spent most of Sunday sitting on my couch, watching the NHL Draft, and complaining about the Blue Jackets picks in the Draft Live Blog. With a little time, a little perspective, and some thought on all the picks, I am quite a bit more pleased with who the the CBJ ended up with. I’m still very disappointed they passed on Hunter Shinkaruk (twice!). But I let that influence my thoughts on who they actually did pick. A little video and stats research later, and I am much more at peace with the newest members of the Jackets organization.
Also influencing my disappointment at the time was the fact that there were no moves made for current NHLers. The team is not any better on paper today than they were on Sunday morning, and that is a little disconcerting to me. They came into this offseason with a lot of future assets, a lot of cap room, and the ability to outbid many teams for a couple of good, but slightly overpaid, NHLers. They didn’t do this, and now those future assets have been devalued. Whether it entirely makes sense or not, the 14th pick was worth a lot more in trade on Sunday afternoon than Alexander Wennberg would be worth in a trade. At this point, I just don’t see it being likely that any of the Blue Jackets young assets move (outside of possibly Ryan Johansen). But these are topics for another day, as my free agency preview will be coming later this week. For now, here are my current thoughts on each of he Blue Jackets draft picks.
Round 1, 14th Overall: Alexander Wennberg
So I don’t hate this pick nearly as much as I did at first. I had Wennberg going around the 18th pick, so four picks early isn’t bad. It’s pretty much universal that he doesn’t have top line upside, which is my big quibble with the pick, considering the Jackets only have two players with top line upside, and Shinkaruk was still on the board. But what’s done is done. Wennberg is a Blue Jacket, and he looks to be a good one. The 6’1″, 190 pound Swedish centre from the Djurgarden organization is probably a couple years out, but he really fits what the Jackets are about. He will likely slot in on the second or third line, put up decent point totals, while playing a complete game. Nothing to complain about, he’s just not really the kind of pick you can “dream on”. He’s a very solid, safe pick, and should be a contributor at the NHL level for a long time.
Round 1, 19th Overall: Kerby Rychel
Oddly enough, I actually really really like that Rychel will be a Blue Jacket. He has the ability to be a very physical, tough to play against winger, and he is also one of the better scorers in the draft. I’m not sure he’ll ever be a top line guy in a bubble, but he could definitely be the grinder on a top line featuring two legit first line talents. It’s more likely the 6′, 205 pounder will slot on the left wing alongside fellow OHL alum Boone Jenner. A Rychel-Jenner-? line would be unstoppable physically, while also being one of the better offensive third lines in the league. I really, really love that they got Rychel, and he might not have been there at 27. Again, my frustration at the time was the presence of Shinkaruk on the board.
Round 1, 27th Overall: Marko Dano
In a bubble, I l0ve that Dano was drafted by the Blue Jackets. A 5th round grade, already playing pro hockey in the KHL, legit offensive tools, but a little small at 5’11”, 183lbs, and not much production in his draft year (37gp 3g, 4a, 7pts). If he was a 4th round pick, I’d be ecstatic. If he was a 3rd round pick, I’d be very, very pleased. If he was a 2nd rounder, I’d be cool with it. But he was just a huge reach in the 1st. He’s the kind of upside swing I wanted the Jackets to take, I just don’t like this particular swing at this particular spot. They ended up with Wennberg-Rychel-Dano-Heatherington with their first four picks, but they could have probably ended up with Wennberg-Shinkaruk-Rychel (or Hartman)-Dano. The upgrade from Heatherington to Shinkaruk is just massive. The only thing though is we don’t really know what the league’s opinion was of Dano. All the pundits had him going late, but all it takes is one other team to fall in love with him. If the Blue Jackets had him in their first round, and if you think he’s the best player on the board, and you think another team like him enough to take him before 44th, then you have to grab him. But again, I do actually really like Dano as a prospect, and look forward to his development.
Round 2, 50th Overall: Dillon Heatherington
This is my least favorite pick of the draft. I can clearly see the value in drafting each of the first three selections, I just don’t see it with Heatherington. He is just so likely to be a complete bust. If you take a look at draft busts, the most commonly found players who are drafted high and never make an impact are goaltenders and defensive defensemen. Yes, you need defensive defensemen in the NHL. But take a look at your favorite defensive defenseman and you are more likely to find a player who was a two-way guy with good junior/college numbers who couldn’t translate his offense to the NHL. Guys who don’t put up point in junior/college usually don’t have the puck skills to be good enough with the puck to play in the NHL. You need to be able to make the first pass, ignite the breakout, move the puck forward, to work as even a defensive defenseman. I’m not sure that Heatherington has the requisite skills.
Round 3, 89th Overall: Oliver Bjorkstrand
This is the exact type of pick I like once you leave the first two rounds. Grab a guy with the potential to be a top six player and hope he fills in the holes in his game. Bjorkstrand is a very talented right winger, who put up solid offensive numbers playing for Portland of the WHL. He’s just very small, at 5’10”, 166lbs. If he can bulk up, and maintain the ability to produce when playing against pros, he’ll be a steal in the third round.
Round 4, 105th Overall: Nick Moutrey
This is the exact kind of pick I don’t like in the draft, at any point. Moutrey is a big, physical player who is already projected to being a Jared Boll replacement in the future. While I’m not sure he’s really a fighter, I don’t like wasting a pick on a future fourth liner. You can go and sign one of those for cheap in free agency. If you want to develop one, sign an undrafted college player, or pick up someone that was drafted but not signed. Hell, they could have probably traded this exact pick for someone who is currently a 4th line talent in the NHL. Picks at this point in the draft have almost no chance of ever making the NHL, so you aren’t risking much taking a swing at a guy with top six tools who has holes in his game. Your options here are either low risk, high reward or low risk, low reward. So why would you ever choose the low reward option?
Round 6, 165th Overall: Markus Soberg
What was I just saying? Draft guys with skill who have holes in their game? The knock on Soberg is that he needs to put on a lot of strength and learn to play without the puck. However, he’s an excellent skater, has a good shot, and good puck skills. If he never bulks up and/or figures out how to play without the puck, then he probably just stays in Europe forever. But if he can put 25 pounds of muscle on his 6′, 187lb frame, and learn to play defense, then the Blue Jackets have a potential top six forward. This is how you draft.
Round 7, 195th Overall: Peter Quenneville
Ahhhh another good pick. I love it. Late in the draft find Europeans and College bound players with good skating and/or offensive skills. Let them marinate in whatever league they are in/heading to, and hope they fill in the holes. The 5’11”, 183lb centre/right winger was a very good offensive player for Dubuque of the USHL this past year. He’ll be heading to Quinnipiac, where Quenneville will have four solid years to bulk up (NCAA programs are great for this), and learn to play a solid two way game.
So to recap, other than the Heatherington and Moutrey picks I really like the strategy the Jackets took. Pretty much every single fan doesn’t know anywhere close to enough about any of these prospects to really comment too much on them. But what I do know is what kind of picks are good picks. I theoretically like what they did with six of their eight picks. I would have rather seen them grab a defenseman with offensive upside instead of Heatherington (say Madison Bowey, picked three spots later), a project forward in the 4th (say Boston College bound Ryan Fitzgerald, chosen 15 spots later) and maybe a European goalie with good size in the 6th or 7th round (6’1″ Janne Juvonen was picked by Nashville eight spots after Quenneville). Bowey-Fitzgerald-Juvonen in place of Heatherington-Moutrey-Quenneville, and I am even happier with this draft (in spite of passing on Shinkaruk). As it stands though, I am satisfied with this draft, even if it doesn’t exactly fill me with hope and excitement for the future. Maybe one of these guys will blow up over the next year Boone Jenner style, and I’ll look back on this draft with fondness.
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