In just an hour or so, the Free Agent Frenzy begins in the NHL, perhaps made a bit more rational this year by allowing teams and players to chat for a few days before actual signings can occur. Indeed, some teams apparently took liberties with the whole concept of “discussions”, prompting the NHL to issue a memo directing that all “offers” made before noon EDT today had to be withdrawn. Such is modern life — stretch the rule to the limit…then one more step.
The Coach has already presented his wish list of players, so I’m going to take a bit narrower approach here, focusing on the few players I think are realistic targets in free agency, and how that translates into reality under the salary cap. Let’s dig in.
The Budget & the Needs
Relying on our good friends at www.capgeek.com, we know that the Blue Jackets have 21 of 23 available roster slots filled, with $7,991,191 available under the cap for the outstanding two slots. Those 21 signed players include 12 forwards, 7 defensemen and two net-minders. That also includes Ryan Murray on the NHL roster, with a cap hit of $3.494 million, but does not include a roster spot for Boone Jenner, with his far more modest cap hit of $895K. So, if Murray does not make the big club, the cap space would be just under $11.5 million, but there would then be three slots to fill.
It’s likely fair to say that the club would like to enter the season with the traditional 13-8-2 mix of forwards, blue liners and goalies, but might take the risk and go 14-7-2, depending upon how the personnel situation shapes up over the next few weeks. We know that Davidson and Kekäläinen are targeting scoring in the free agent/trade market, which adds to the complexity. If you remove Murray and add Jenner to the mix, you are back to two vacancies, but you already have 13 forwards. If you figure neither Jenner nor Murray for the squad. you have that $11.5 million available, but need to cover three slots, with at least one defensive position.
At the end of the day, Columbus is likely looking for the following assistance, in order of importance: 2 scoring forwards, 1 middle tier defenseman and possibly a reserve net-minder. While McElhinney is penciled in for the reserve role, I have a hunch the club would like some insurance there.
The Shopping List
Unless you’re in the front office, there is no way to know who specifically is on the Blue Jackets’ radar, but we can make some educated guesses, based upon known facts and hints dropped by multiple, reasonably credible sources:
- Nathan Horton — the Boston right-winger is very interested in Columbus, per reports from a wide variety of sources, ranging from The Columbus Dispatch to TSN. He was in Columbus on Jul y 3, took in Red, White & Boom and had Columbus doctors look at his injured shoulder. Horton carried a $4 million cap hit and a $5.5 million salary last year in Boston, and is ostensibly looking for a “quieter” environment in which to ply his trade. He has historically been a 50+ point guy over a full season. His injury-shortened 2011-2012 campaign (17-15-32 in 46 games) was the first time he failed to notch 20 goals in a season. As I’ve said previously, his style of game fits nicely with where the Blue Jackets are headed, and he could be a great fit.
- Valtteri Filppula — a traditional nemesis for Columbus as part of the Red Wings, Filppula shares Jokerit roots with Kekäläinen, which could be an enticing factor. A 30-40 point guy for his first four NHL seasons, he exploded for 23-43-66 in the 2011-12 campaign, before returning to a sedate 9-8-17 in the shortened season just concluded. He offers a solid all-around skill package and decent size. 29 years old now, he had a $3.5 million salary and $3.0 million cap hit with Detroit. He is rumored to be interested in Columbus and Anaheim, but moving just a few hours down the road might have some appeal for him.
- David Clarkson — I include Clarkson only because TSN reported that the Blue Jackets have talked to him. At 29, he has six full seasons with the Devils under his belt, but has not been the model of consistency. At his best, he notched 30-16-46 and a minus-8 in the 2011-12 season, but was 12-6-18 and minus-20 the year before. He has been over 30 points only one other time. While you might look at him for his current $3 million salary, and slightly lower cap hit, the rumor mill has him somewhere north of $30 million on a five or six-year deal. Not interested at anything close to that level, and I don’t think the Blue Jackets go this way either.
- Vikor Stalberg — This is a real wild-card opportunity, as he is coming off a two-year contract that paid him an average of $875K per season. At age 27, and a player who absolutely murdered the Blue Jackets, you have to believe that they are giving him a solid look. He’ll get a big raise, and there will be multiple bidders, so this one is a toss-up.
- Andrew Ference — At age 34, Ference has a wealth of experience, yet has some productive years remaining as a shut-down defenseman, who can perhaps contribute 20 points or so in the process. Coming off of a three-year. $2.25 per year contract, Ference could provide that defensive experience and depth the club needs.
Of course, numerous other names could come up. Ryan Clowe could get a look, and Vinny Prospal is still sitting by the phone. (I have little to add to this great piece put together by @Canadan82 on the Prospal question). Some have argued for a trade for David Perron, but this seems unlikely. Perron has underperformed of late, and you make that move on the gamble that he finds his game in new surroundings. More fundamentally, who do you trade? Sending Umberger basically gets you the same player back, saving just $800K. The Blues might be interested in defense, but again, I just don’t think there is enough of an upside in this deal to make sense.
Making It Work
So, how can this all come together? It first depends on how many pieces the club is looking to add. If it’s only a single forward, there are no issues, as any of the players mentioned could come on board, and there would be sufficient cap room to handle the deal. The club could decide to add a single forward, and rely on the likes of Jenner and/or Goloubef to provide the necessary depth. If that is the case, I think Horton likely gets the nod, depending upon the situation with his shoulder.
Alternatively, Columbus could add a forward and a defenseman in the Ference mold, and probably squeeze in with the cap. Anything more, however, and some sort of trade will be required. As discussed before, Umberger’s contract would be ripe for moving to the right partner, and could provide the needed flexibility at the forward slot. Of course, when you enter the world of trades, anything is possible, so we are rapidly crossing the line from educated surmise to rank speculation. Let’s leave it at that.
Everything suggest that Columbus will be a significant player today, though ultimately it will be the players themselves who dictate those results. That’s what makes the UFA process so intriguing. It could mimic the draft and be relatively quiet, or the dominoes could start falling early, as clubs make FA signings, then move to clear cap room. The Blue Jackets will need to be ready for any eventuality, and with Jarmo and Davidson at the helm, there is ample cause for confidence on that score. Hold on to your hats — this could be a wild ride.
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