In the wake of home-and-home losses to Pittsburgh, the usual cacophony of reactions are evident — ranging from the sublime to the ridiculous. Today, we’ll try to take a relatively dispassionate look at the club, the recent efforts, and dust off the crystal ball for some thoughts as to what might come down the pike.
First things first, however. Shortly before game time, I caught a TSN tweet indicating that Gary Bettman was at Nationwide for the game, and a second tweet indicating that he was in the company of Mayor Coleman. Rudimentary arithmetic led me to one conclusion — All Star Game — a fact confirmed about 30 minutes later, when the lights dimmed, Greg Murray advised the crowd of a special announcement from John Davidson, who then appeared on the scoreboard screen with Bettman. The announcement that the 2015 All Star Game was coming to Columbus on January 24 & 25, 2015 was almost an anti-climax at that point. Still, it was terrifically positive news for the franchise, the city and the 18,634 assembled fans. The NHL made good on its promise to “do right” by Columbus after the lockout trashed the All Star Festivities for the 2013 game.
The most surprising aspect of the announcement was the timing. Traditionally, the venue for the All Star Game is announced in January, or at least in conjunction with GM meetings. That the announcement came so far in advance is a credit to both the NHL and the progress that the organization has been making at all levels. Kudos to all concerned, and Columbus fans can now tuck those 2013 All Star Game pucks away, waiting for them to appreciate in value. (Just kidding…sort of) So with that issue put to bed, time to return to the ice. The intent here is not to provide a game summary of the Pittsburgh battles — @Canadan82 does that extremely well — but to look at the higher level issues, positive and negative, that are emerging as this fledgling season moves forward. The two games vs. the Penguins do highlight some of the issues in stark relief.
Pressure Tests
Let’s get this out on the table up front: the Pittsburgh Penguins are a very, very good hockey club — the class of the Eastern Conference at the moment — and possess perhaps more skill across the roster than any other club in the league. Chicago comes close, but man-for-man, the Penguins have precisely the skills they need at each slot, and know how to use those skills to maximum advantage. That’s not offered as an excuse, but simply a fact. There is a tendency among fan bases (wherever situated) to attribute losses exclusively to the shortcomings of their team, rather than ascribe some measure of credit to the opposition. Pittsburgh’s speed and skill put pressure on any club, and a back-to-back simply enhances that effect. It’s like testing a window for leaks. Throw a glass of water on it, it might do fine. Aim a fire hose at it, different story. Make no mistake, Pittsburgh is a fire hose. Still, despite the twin losses, the Blue Jackets showed that they can skate with the Pens, and, at times, even dominate them. In Friday night’s game, two softies by Bobrovsky were the difference. At the other end of the ice, the Blue Jackets put 39 shots on net — many of them prime chances — and had the Penguins on their heels for long stretches. In the sequel at Nationwide, the reality was not equivalent to the score. While the offense was sedate, two of the Penguins’ goals came on an empty netter and an inadvertent deflection off Blake Comeau’s stick. Hardly a rout. So, it’s truly not a matter of capability, nor (to my eyes) is it an overall lack of effort. Instead, it’s a combination of execution, both collectively and individually. Throw in a total absence of good fortune, and the level of challenge increases significantly. The good news is that the solutions are at hand.
The Compass, the Clock & the Stick
First to dispose of any thoughts of a “goalie controversy.” Bob let in a couple of softies against the Penguins, and has had ups and downs in the early going. He had some shaky starts early last year as well. Fundamentally, he is getting square to the shooter, but has been a bit careless in covering the five hole. That’s fixable. He’s got a terrific work ethic, and there should be no pressing of the panic button over the play between the pipes. McElhinney has done better that I envisioned, but still has a bit of trouble with the glove, and leaves a few too many rebounds in the blue paint. Fortunately, the defense has swept most of those away. Still, he is fine in the backup role. While the goaltending lapses have frequently come at precisely the wrong time, it would be reaching to point the finger at the net minders at this point.
A couple of trends alluded to in my earlier article seem to be continuing, and the Penguins series provides a microcosm illustration of this. First is what I call the “offensive compass issue”– the tendency to navigate East-West in the offensive zone, instead of North-South. It is characterized by hesitation and over-passing, giving the defense time to react and stymie any serious threat. The East -West configuration reduces the amount of traffic in front of the opponent’s goal, further reducing the chances for effective offensive production. On Friday night, this was largely absent, and the results were apparent — 39 shots on goal, many of them prime chances. Unfortunately, due both to terrific individual efforts by Fleury and individual shortcomings of some of the shooters, few of these chances were converted. However, the Blue Jackets were able to exert significant pressure for protracted lengths of time, and that came largely from their ability to move North-South, take the shot and then deal with the rebound. That the rebounds did not land on Columbus sticks is more a matter of bad fortune than bad play (see below), but the chances were created. Unfortunately, the sideways play reared its ugly head Saturday night, and the results showed — a total of 10 shots through 2 periods. In contrast, the Blue Jackets put 16 shots on goal in the 1st period alone on Friday. On more than one occasion on Saturday, players would enter the zone down the middle, pass to the wing . . . and stop. More often than not, the winger, correctly assuming a give-and-go play was in order — would pass the puck back to the middle, and no Blue Jacket would be there. Not his fault. The contrasts are stark, and it makes the difference from dictating play to having the play dictated for you. So, how can the team go from one extreme to the other in under 24 hours?
The Blue Jackets clearly miss both Boone Jenner and Matt Calvert. Calvert is that blend of skill and tenacity that gives defenses trouble, and provides the perfect complement to brawnier lines. Jenner, while young and still fully capable of mistakes, has the ability to do it all. He is not afraid to stake out a position in front, lay out some hits behind the net and still put some nasty shots on goal. His tenacity enables him to draw penalties and creates space in the offensive zone. Foligno also does this well, and Comeau has the desire, but simply lacks Jenner’s offensive skill. In a young squad trying to establish chemistry, the absence of these two has a “trickle down”effect, in that the resulting lines lack the familiarity and chemistry that might otherwise be in play. This breeds uncertainty, which begets hesitation. Hesitation is the characteristic of the East-West game, and the death of offensive production. However, at the end of the day, every team has to find a way to deal with injuries, and Columbus is no different. However, when you have injuries, you need to get creative in your use of personnel, and use people in a manner consistent with their performance — not their reputation. (See discussion below) This becomes a cascading phenomenon, as the lack of offensive production creates pressure to produce offense, which gets guys gripping the stick too tightly — literally — which is a self-defeating process. Watch the supremely talented players, and you can see how their sticks simply absorb the puck — no matter how hard it comes their way. The puck stays on their stick, not just in the neighborhood. When the puck is on your stick, magical things can happen. That’s the result of soft hands and a light grip. Again, the Blue Jackets can do this, but the trick is in the execution. Saturday night, the pucks were bouncing off of the Columbus sticks like Super Balls (Google it, kids.)
The other trend that surfaced on Friday did not involve the compass, but the clock. For some inexplicable reason, the Blue Jackets lose their ability to play cogent hockey for the first half of the 2nd period. Once again on Friday, the opposition scored very early in the second (Brandon Sutter at the 1:10 mark), and the Penguins notched three by the 5:34 mark. Sure, two of those were soft goals, but Columbus has made a habit of coming out of the locker room stale. I’m not sure what is being said or done during the first intermission, but whatever it is, it’s not working. For the most part, the Blue Jackets have turned in great efforts in the first and third stanzas, but have been miserable in the second. That’s not a great period to have problems, either, due to the long distance changes required in that frame. When the Blue Jackets put in sixty minutes of effort, it’s a beautiful thing. However, particularly when the injury bug hits, they have little margin for error. Some bag skates may be in order if the 50-minute trend continues.
Finally, a word about the defense in general. Overall, the defensive effort has been better, subject to the periodic lapses that any team will experience. However, on Friday, the “collapsing defense” specter rose once more, which provided Pittsburgh with far too much time and space, particularly on the power play. Certainly, the skill and speed of a team like Pittsburgh can provoke caution and a reticence to challenge too much, but the defense has to overcome that tendency. Analytically, it’s no different from a cornerback playing off a particularly speedy receiver. He might not get burned deep, but those 12 yard gains are there all day long, and several of those strung together end up in the end zone. Same principle here. Provide space and time to an NHL offense, the little passes and possession time will sap the defense and create seams, and those seams can be exploited. Those same skill teams tend to react negatively to pressure, so first instincts have to be ignored. Saturday night was much better, with solid defensive support, and more challenges at the blue line and beyond. The result? Only a single challenged goal.
Right Cast, Wrong Roles?
Injuries and under-performance have caused Todd Richards to tinker with the lines and pairs — probably to a greater extent than he would like. It’s a tough job to be sure — trying to find the right line mates for a pure scorer like Gaborik, while not disrupting the chemistry on some of the lower lines. Ditto on defense, where some lackluster play (more in a bit) has prompted change. However, in the process I think some more obvious — and potentially productive — moves have been disregarded.
Of course, all players are going to have ups and downs, and you have to avoid making knee-jerk changes based upon these transitory phenomena. Cam Atkinson suffers from the inconsistency of youth — looking one minute like he could dominate the game single-handed, then disappearing from view the next game. Cam leads the team in shots — and is near the cellar in shooting percentage. He shows incredible zeal in the offensive end, but frequently trudges back to the defensive zone with considerably less enthusiasm. Trailing the play badly, he took a poor tripping penalty on Saturday after just such an interlude. Channeling youthful enthusiasm is more art than science, and to this point Richards has shown uncharacteristic patience with the diminutive forward. That’s a good thing. I’m not sure that the patience shown with others is equally meritorious, however.
R.J. Umberger is the first case study. A fan favorite, a nice guy and a guy with his heart on his sleeve. However, he can’t keep the puck on his stick to save his life, and his ability to convert chances has been on a progressive downslope for the past couple of years. He has become something of a “rally killer” on the Johansen line, yet continues to draw big minutes. In the meantime, Derek MacKenzie is mire on the fourth line, despite showing some speed and solid play, and pulls single digit TOI numbers more often than not. Umberger’s primary contributions of late have been hits, and he had none of those on Saturday. (He did register five hits on Friday.) The problem is that hits are fine — but those come when the other team has the puck, and the Blue Jackets really need guys in Umberger’s position to tickle the twine. He’s on a single-digit goal pace for the season, and that’s simply not going to get the job done. Why not put R.J. on the fourth line for a bit, let him register his hits, and see if he can find some offense? Put MacKenzie on Johansen’s line, and see what he can do with some real scoring talent around him.
Speaking of the fourth line, Jared Boll is another case of interest. Again, a great guy, apparently really liked and respected in the room. On the ice, however, he has been really pretty bad. You aren’t looking for Jared to score, but you are looking for him to create turmoil and at least be a presence when he is on the ice. He did manage four hits on Friday, but otherwise has been invisible. As you all know, I’m not a fan of plus/minus, for a lot of reasons, but on a team where most of the forwards are even or plus, Boll is a minus-4. Usually, fourth line guys make out pretty well on this stat, as they are put on the ice under pretty limited and controlled circumstances, so Boll’s number here is even more striking. Saturday night’s sole contribution was a stupid penalty, so it is mystifying why he doesn’t at least spend some time in the Press Box. While I understand that the dynamic changes when Jenner, Calvert and Horton return, but in the interim, why not try a youngster in the role? It’s doubtful they could be less productive.
Then comes the case of Jack Johnson. The guy with the cheekbones. Captain of Team USA. A well-spoken, tough guy. Unfortunately, he has been truly bad for this young season, at least in his own zone. Again, plus/minus in the absolute is a garbage stat. However, on a comparative basis among his defensive brethren, it has some value. JJ is a team-worst minus-6 to date. Wisniewski is his closest rival at minus-3. In contrast, Savard is plus-5, Murray plus-2 and even Nikitin is plus-1. Part of the trouble is his footwork in the defensive zone, where he inexplicably loses the ability to skate, and starts reaching. You can’t do that against Pittsburgh — and his minus-3 on Saturday bears that out. Significantly, he seems to drag down whoever he is paired with. Murray, who has truly been the best all-around defenseman thus far, was minus-2 last night when paired with JJ in Richards’ latest experiment. Yet, Johnson continues to pull team-leading minutes.
I like Jack Johnson. He has speed, he has a great shot and he’s a leader. Unfortunately, he’s just not terrific at stopping the opposition, which is a significant drawback for a defenseman. I theorize that the move to the Eastern Conference, with a more wide-open style of play, has not been kind to JJ, as it again provides him with a pressure test, which he is thus far failing. Meanwhile, there’s this guy named Tim Erixon in Springfield, who just happens to be leading the team, not just defensemen, with two goals and seven assists in six games, and a plus-5 rating. Here’s an idea — why not take a page from the Burns book in San Jose and try Johnson out at forward? He has no issue skating forward, has a great shot, and can work the point on the power play. He would draw fewer minutes per game, which would keep him fresher, and his defensive prowess would certainly be an asset up front. Yes, I’m serious. Bring up Erixon, and make a final decision on whether Nikitin is in the long-term plans. If he is, put him back with Tyutin, keep Murray with Wiz, and have Prout, Erixon and Savard share the third pair duty. If Nikitin is not in the cards, move him, and either bring in more D or bring Goloubef up to share the bottom three. The point is that Johnson’s minutes are being allocated based on reputation, not performance, and the club is paying the price. Do I expect the club to try this? Not really. Would I like to see it? You bet.
Fortunately, the Metro Division is turning out to be an exercise in mutually assured destruction, with the Penguins in front and the remaining teams forming a tightly bunched peloton of teams. The Blue Jackets are in the thick of it, despite some lackluster showings, and the trick is to stay there until Calvert, Jenner and Horton return. That calls for looking at things as they are, and a willingness to find creative ways to address the situation at hand.
Puck Luck, Invasions and Other Oddities
A final element of the Blue Jackets fortunes to date is, quite simply, the total absence of fortune — puck luck and otherwise. Like it or not, the game of hockey, more than any other team sport, is dependent upon a certain amount of good fortune for success to occur. Playing a game on ice with a rubber puck makes for some crazy bounces, and few of those have gone the Blue Jackets’ way thus far. Sure, to a certain extent, you make your own luck, but the Blue Jackets have been particularly unfortunate. Whether it’s an outrageous call, as against Anaheim, or the simple refusal of rebounds to find your own sticks, it’s a frustrating process. With a minus-three goal differential, the Blue Jackets have managed 10 points. Yet the Rangers, with a minus-13, have notched 12, and Detroit, with just a plus-1, have earned 20. Timing is everything. Fortunately, the breaks have a way of evening out over the long haul, but that doesn’t help when your in the middle of one of the valleys.
Quite a bit of conversation has flown around concerning the number of opposing fans invading Nationwide, including the big Pittsburgh contingent last night. Here’s a great piece from Greg May on the issue, and I have little to add. However, consider that the 18,634 souls at Nationwide on Saturday represented a crowd 14 larger than in Pittsburgh the night before. Just as the “dueling national anthems” against Toronto last Friday energized the crowd, so did the competing “Let’s Go “chants on Saturday. It creates a great environment, and unlike the Penguins invasion in 2010, the CBJ Nation responded with enthusiasm and energy, not quiet resignation. It takes time to gain the confidence and attention of the casual fan, who will deplete the seats available for the opposition. But if all those folks want to come and spend their money in our city, its not all bad. There will be increasing numbers of Columbus fans visiting road games in the East. It’s more evolution than transformation, but it will be fun to watch.
That evolution becomes possible, in large part, because of the leadership the club has assembled in the front office — Davidson, Kekalainen, et al. While “brick by brick”is the mantra, I have to believe that Jarmo has one eye on the ice and the other eye on the phone. When you’re trapped in a glass house, an extra bring is sure handy, and I don’t think he’ll wait too long to pull the trigger on that brick.
In short, the issues are there, but so are the solutions. Stay tuned — it’s early in the show.
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