East Carolina (6-1. 3-0 AAC) was the Cinderella every fan loyal to a Group of Five conference could fall in love with. The Pirates have been projected to play in one of the College Football Playoff’s New Years Day bowls by most of the sports media since they edged Virginia Tech 28-21 in Blacksburg, VA, and annihilated in-state foe North Carolina 70-41 in Weeks 3 and 4.
But after beating 1-6 UConn at home by “only” 10 points, some skepticism has emerged with ECU. Some college football experts, including Dennis Dodd, don’t believe so strongly in the Pirate crew from the banks of East Carolina. Dodd Now has 7-1 Colorado State out of the Mountain West representing the Group of Five with the automatic bid to a Playoff bowl.
With one of the nation’s best offensive units and a Top-50 defense, ECU is undoubtedly the class of the American Athletic Conference —for now, anyway. Upsets happen like clockwork in college football. ECU continues, and will continue, to rack up crazy offensive numbers, but it has scored below its 39.6 points per game average in each of the last two games (at USF and UConn).
A November slip-up seems probably given the nature of college football, but is it likely? Is ECU’s decrease in scoring a sign of decline for the team, or just a bumpy patch during a long season?
Let’s take a look at the Pirates’ November schedule and gauge where the upset(s) may lie. Each opponents total offense, total defense and ECU’s win probably according to the ESPN Football Power Index are listed. Keep in mind that ECU is averaging 566.9 yards per game on offense (fourth in the FBS) and is allowing 368.6 yards per contest (50th in FBS).
Nov. 1 — at Temple (4-3, 2-2)
- Offense: 343.7 yards/game
- Defense: 362.6 yards allowed/game
- FPI Win Probability: 56.3%
Nov. 13 — at Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1)
- Offense: 464 yards/game
- Defense: 489.3 yards allowed/game
- FPI Win Probability: 49.4%
Nov. 22 — Tulane (2-5, 1-2)
- Offense: 354 yards/game
- Defense: 367.3 yards allowed/game
- FPI Win Probability: 89.6 %
Nov. 28 — at Tulsa (1-6, 1-2)
- Offense: 433.3 yards/game
- Defense: 494.9 yards allowed/game
- FPI Win Probability: 84.4%
Examining the November slate, the obvious land mine and potential loss is Nov. 13 at Cincinnati on Thursday night.
Temple is reeling after losing two straight at Houston and at UCF by 20 or more points — ECU win. Tulane is playing better defensively, but continues to pander in musical chairs at QB — ECU win. Tulsa only plays offense and starting QB Dane Evans is more inconsistent than Roger Goodell — ECU win. So then there’s Cincinnati with Gunner Kiel and a defense that looks much improved in the last two weeks.
The Bearcats allowed only three and 17 points in the last two games against SMU and USF. Those stats, however, and highly misleading, given that the Mustangs and Bulls are a combined 3-12 on the season and are No. 9 and No. 11, respectively, in the AAC in total offense.
ESPN’s FPI believes Cincy is likely to edge the Pirates, but will Shane Carden and crew let that happen? The answer is no, no they won’t.
ECU’s biggest threat is the season finale against improving UCF. The Knights resemble a far-better UConn team — ball control offense, tough defense. That is where the Pirates’ ship may sink along with their season.
But we’re talking about November and the Pirates are looking forward to a happy Thanksgiving.
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