You’ve already seen the stories, you already know the alarm. Boone Jenner is injured, he’s gone for more than a month. Nathan Horton has back issues, and he’s out for an undisclosed amount of time. Cue the national media, let’s sing it together everybody: Blue Jackets’ Entire First Line Out Week Before Season’s Start.
That headline writes itself, no? Probably time to drop the Jackets on all your lists. No more playoffs, no more fantasy hockey picks. Better just get ready for that Connor McDavid draft. Dire, dire times, my friends.
“That’s why we have a second line, a third line, and a fourth line,” GM Jarmo Kekalainen told the Dispatch this week. Sounds like sloganeering, I’m sure. No truth to that at all.
Except, what if there is? What if a hockey team is more than just 3 players at any time? I know that’s a radical concept to digest, especially for a team with such low name recognition outside the Outerbelt (I mean, who’s there without Nash amirite?).
New hockey stats site War On Ice has a great tool that allows access to player number over multiple seasons. Let’s take it for a spin and look at skater statistics. Let’s use the past two seasons of play, sorting by relative Corsi %, and limiting to players with 994+ minutes played at even strength.
Did you know there are 6 Blue Jackets in the NHL top 100 for this statistic? They are (in order) Scott Hartnell, Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky, James Wisniewski, Matt Calvert, and Nathan Horton. Only one of those players is left off the team right now (Horton).
Yes, this is only one metric. No, it isn’t perfect. It doesn’t reflect as nicely for players on outstanding teams (see: LA, Chicago). It does shed a positive light on the rest of the CBJ that isn’t seen by the usual counting stats.
Cam Atkinson may not be a brand name player to other teams (unless you’re at Boston College), but he has been a part of an effort that yields long-term positive play. The same story goes for Brandon Dubinsky, and he’s been at this for a while. Heck, we even looked at Scott Hartnell this offseason. There’s a case that he was an important part of his elite line with Philly. Figure in two other positive players (Foligno, Anismov) and suddenly there are two full lines of play-driving forwards available right now. And that’s not even considering splitting the six players allowing them to anchor 3 or 4 different lines.
What happens when we take a look at the rest of the news? Talks have opened again between Ryan Johansen and the team. It’s entirely likely that he rejoins the Jackets before next Thursday’s opening game in Buffalo. What if he ends up reuniting with one of his best linemates from last year and something similar happens?
Listen: Nathan Horton and Boone Jenner being out is not ideal. That part is obvious. At the same time, ignoring the rest of the Columbus roster is a grave mistake, especially with Johansen’s return likely to come soon. It is the depth so touted by Kekalainen that gives the Blue Jackets such strength and why, even without two significant parts, they still look like one of the strongest teams in the Metro.
Remember, low name recognition for guys like Matt Calvert doesn’t change the fact that they’re good.
http://youtu.be/k_F-Wr_BlTA
(Featured image of Matt Calvert via Wikimedia user Tspy9 through Flickr)
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