As we discussed in the earlier post on potential trade or UFA targets for right shooting defenders, the chances that the Jackets make the play-offs this year are essentially nil, so instead we look to figure out how to improve on the team through trade or maybe even UFA signings.
The second major concern for the Jackets is depth on the right wing. In the HERO Graph Analysis for the Jackets forwards, I mentioned that, in a perfect world, Nathan Horton is back fully healthy and can take that top RW spot. But it’s not a perfect world, and that scenario is unlikely to come to fruition. So, we instead get a team left with one natural RW, two fourth line RWs, and a converted LW to fill those four RW spots. That’s not only not ideal, but it’s something that most play-off teams aren’t reliant on.
What we’re setting out to do is to strengthen the right wing of the Jackets without significantly weakening any other part of the current construct of the team. The Jackets major strengths would be at C and LW, where the club has four or more top nine-worthy players at each position. The defense is the secondary option: would trading a top defender to get a top right wing make sense? My opinion is no, unless the return would be a major improvement on any other available talent. Trading any sort of right winger for a right winger is also not a good idea, since you’re not improving the depth of the position any and are left with the same problem.
What would be the best case scenario is to find a decent -> good 2nd or 3rd line RW who can has the potential to produce at a higher level but, for whatever reason, hasn’t been given the chance to. We’re looking for our very own Mathieu Perrault.
EDM JORDAN EBERLE
2014/15 stats: 49 GP, 13 G 18 A (10 G 12 A at 5v5), 51.9% Score Adj Corsi, 98.8 PDO
Jordan Eberle would be a massive “get” for the Jackets, but with massive acquisions come massive prices. Eberle plays a very offensively minded game, with a good shot and good ability off of the rush. He’s also got those good hands (illustrated here, where he shreds the Sharks). He’s put up 87 even strength points over the past 2.5 seasons, ninth among all 322 listed RW, via War on Ice. Eberle has been criticised repeatedly by the blogging community for his lack of contribution and growth at the defensive game, which could have him end up in the Jackets doghouse. I say this because he’s unlikely to be coddled in Columbus the way he has been in Edmonton, where he’s thought of as a “golden boy” and above reproach by some. But if you want a high-level right wing, Eberle is the best option that’s known to be available.
The cost of Eberle is where it gets tricky. Edmonton has been rumoured to value Artem Anisimov, and while a loss of Arty would be a blow to the Jackets’ center depth, it would be a big upgrade on the over-all scale, especially if management feels that a player like Wennberg is ready to step up in a permanent role as a top nine center. Should the package for Eberle begin with Anisimov, it would also need to include either a 1st round pick, a top prospect or, if Edmonton is feeling particularly greedy, both. Would a package of Anisimov, a 2016 1st rounder, and a defensive prospect like Dillon Heatherington be something that Jackets fans would be willing to part with? Moreover, is it something that Edmonton would even consider?
COL RYAN O’REILLY
2014/15 stats: 50 GP, 9 G 18 A (5 G 12 A at 5v5), 46.5% Score Adj Corsi, 101.5 PDO
O’Reilly is arguably the best available forward on the market. While he is primarily a center, he also has played a lot of RW for Colorado and may be able to slot into a top line spot. O’Reilly has high second line numbers all the way around, indicating that he is a strong two-way forward. He doesn’t play the crash and bang style associated with BLUE JACKETS HOCKEY, but he does have the strong defensive capability that the Jackets front office and coaching staff covet. O’Reilly has been up and down with his production, but still puts up even strength numbers at a good rate while playing second or third line minutes for the Avs. The main hurdle against him is that he’s going to be a UFA after next season, and he’s already been in two contract disputes with the Avs before turning 23. Would a permanent shift to RW cause another rift between player and management?
The cost of O’Reilly could be another stumbling point, as Colorado is reportedly looking for a high-end defenseman as a return. Jack Johnson immediately springs to mind, but parting with JJ would leave the Jackets with a major hole on the left side of their already questionable blueline. As much as I’d like to see JJ traded, doing so without getting any sort of defensive help back isn’t something I’d consider. That, coupled with the potential contract issues, would have me weary of making any sort of deal for O’Reilly.
FLA BRAD BOYES
2014/15 stats: 45 GP, 10 G 12 A (6 G 11 A at 5v5), 54.1% Score Adj Corsi, 99.3 PDO
If you’re looking for a guy who’s very consistent yet very underrated, look no further than Brad Boyes. How he continually makes it to free agency while still managing to put up the good secondary scoring he does boggles my mind. He’s firmly in the top 25 in goals/60 among ALL right wingers since the beginning of 2012/13, while still maintaining an above-50% Corsi rating, strong individual shooting rates and a very repeatable shooting percentage.
His value may have finally been realized somewhat, as Florida signed him to a two year deal this past off-season, and may not want to trade him, since they see him as a veteran with some mentorship abilities for their large crop of young forwards. Should the Panthers be willing to listen, the Jackets should be willing to speak to them.
BUF DREW STAFFORD
2014/15 stats: 45 GP, 7 G 15 A (5 G 11 A at 5v5), 35.1% Score Adj Corsi, 99.0 PDO
Drew Stafford is a career Buffalo Sabre who never has lived up to his initial expectation of a first line winger. His production levels are that of a decent second liner, which could potentially have him slotted below Cam Atkinson, but above guys like Jeremy Morin or Jack Skille, on the Jackets depth chart. He’s going to be a UFA at season’s end, meaning that he may be more attractive as a signing candidate rather than a trade candidate, but he could be had at the deadline and potentially sign an extension before reaching that point.
Stafford’s knock is that even though his point production isn’t too shabby, he’s not a real play-driver and needs to be carried offensively by superior linemates. He also undergoes large stretches where, simply put, he doesn’t look like he’s trying very hard. He’d be most effectively used with an underrated playmaker like Brandon Dubinsky and a hard-nosed forward like Scott Hartnell, who can get in and do the dirty work and allow Stafford to focus more on the offensive game. But I fear as though his off again/on again play is not long for the Jackets’ system.
ANA KYLE PALMIERI
2014/15 stats: 27 GP, 10 G 7 A (5 G 4 A at 5v5), 51% Score Adj Corsi, 101 PDO
Palmieri is potentially one of those “diamond in the rough” players. He’s had his shot at the top line for the Ducks, playing left wing with Getzlaf and Perry, but Palmieri is a right shot and thus probably fits better on the right side. His primary linemate this year is Ryan Getzlaf, which isn’t too shabby, but Palmieri’s goalscoring is down from than his career average. I doubt his trade cost would be astronomical, but the Ducks’ current standing as one of the top teams in the league likely precludes him being dealt in-season. He may be an interesting candidate for an off-season trade, if the Ducks feel that their young guys like Emerson Etem, Devante Smith-Pelley, Rickard Rackell, et al, can handle an increased workload.
OTHER POTENTIAL OPTIONS
EDM Teddy Purcell
Purcell is a guy I targeted this past off-season as a possible second line RW option. My thoughts on him haven’t changed much, except that now he’s nicely entrenched on Edmonton’s second line and may not be available. He is a decent play driver and play maker, with high second-line results in both Corsi For/Against and assists/60. He’s not going to be a guy to carry a line, but putting him with effective shooters like Johansen or Foligno could help maintain their scoring levels. Is he a first liner on a play-off team, though? I don’t think so, which is why he’s out of the top targets.
LAK Justin Williams
Williams is, of course, The Corsi God, as he’s been top five in the stat for years. He’s an elite play driver with very good points/60 results. Age is a major factor for Williams, as he’ll be heading into his age 34 season next year, meaning that he’s a very short-term solution at best. If he makes it to free agency, he’d be worth a look on a one or two year contract to fill the void until another player displaces him from the role, but he’s not a trade solution.
BOS Loui Eriksson
Eriksson’s stint in Boston has been quite poor, as he’s been unable to find any sort of chemistry with the Marchand/Bergeron or Krejci/Lucic lines. He still produces at a solid rate, but is far from the elite goalscorer he’d once been on the cusp of. He’s been slowed by concussions and, while still effective, is not likely to be a top line scorer for Columbus.
NJD Michael Ryder
Ryder still drives play and produces at a low-tier second line rate, but is ideally a third liner at this stage of his career. He’s also 34 and, much like Williams, would offer a one year solution at best.
CONCLUSION
The right wing market is barren of top players. The position itself can be compared to a catcher in baseball where, once you get past the elite players, the crop is marginal and probably well below their counterparts at other positions. That said, there are some good players who could be available, and the Jackets should definitely look into the cost of acquiring one. In this piece I’ve tried to avoid discussing players who have primarily played LW or C in their recent history (ie: Evander Kane) because, while it does open up more options, using a player on an off-wing may not be as effective as using them in their natural spot. Even the current CBJ roster makes this point, as both Boone Jenner and Nick Foligno have been less productive when asked to move to the right wing.
Looking through the right wing wasteland, one gains a new appreciation for Cam Atkinson. Atkinson isn’t in that upper tier of right wingers, but he’s firmly entrenched at the top of the second tier. Righties who generate shots and chances at the rate which Atkinson does are few and far between, and for what Cam makes, he’s a damn bargain. I mentioned in the forward HERO graph piece that Atkinson should most certainly not be dealt, and researching this post only further affirmed that belief.
– Jeremy
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