Breakdown: Michael McDonald vs. Renan Barao

Contributor: Benjamin Kohn

Hello fight fans and welcome to the most accurate and intelligent breakdown of a fight you will ever see in your lives, ever. I will break down the main event fight and if I have time to give to my adoring fans, I will try and make time for a more breakdowns (probably won’t happen but there is a sliver of hope for you). Anyway, on to the breakdown:

Renan do Nascimento Mota Pegado, better known as Renan Barao, is the Interim Bantamweight Champion. He stands 5’7” with a long 70” reach. He is a Nova Uniao product with a black belt in BJJ and wicked Muay Thai. He is extremely well rounded and the smoothness with which he can switch between phases of combat is absolutely beautiful to watch. The fact that he is just 25 and has a record of 29-1-1 and hasn’t lost since his first fight is incredible. Barao seems to have all the tools to destroy all comers, except maybe one.

Michael “Mayday” McDonald is a 22 year old who jumped from prospect to contender with his brutal KO of former WEC Bantamweight Champion Miguel Torres. That KO cemented “Mayday” as a top contender. He stands 5’8” tall, with a 70” reach. Although known for the ungodly power he possesses in his hands, McDonald also has a brown belt in BJJ so he is no slouch on the ground. With a record of 15-1, he poses a true test to the Interim Champ and this will be a really amazing fight to watch. Now let’s break down how the fight will play out.

• Striking: Although Barao has really good striking, he does seem to lack power, specifically in his hands. Of his 31 fights, he has only won 6 by (T)ko. Most of his wins have been by submission (13) and decision (10). His strength definitely would lie on his kicks and his jab. He uses extremely effectively to keep distance where he can fire away his brutal roundhouse kicks to the legs, body, and head. His hands however are not very good outside of his jab as he tends to get sloppy once he has to throw in combinations. Another worrisome factor was his inability to finish a one legged, broken ribbed Urijah Faber does not give me much confidence in him being able to finish McDonald. A standup fight would lead me to say a decision would be Barao’s route to victory on the feet. McDonald on the other hand has been cursed with power Leonard Garcia can only dream of having (thank you Joe Rogan for that gem). The fact that he has power combined with really crisp kickboxing makes him a nightmare on the feet. His punching combinations are tight and on point and he throws those hands with evil intentions while still not overextending or getting sloppy. His wins have come mostly by KO (9) although he has shown sub skills as well (4 wins by sub). He has only gone to a decision twice in his career although both against guys who shouldn’t have given him that much trouble. In the striking battle between these two, Barao to me seems to need to cross the finish line while McDonald can put him away with one clean shot. The X-factor to me is the leg kicks of Barao and if/how McDonald will neutralize them. If McDonald can get through those outer defenses, Barao’s limited boxing will become a big handicap and you do not want to get sloppy with McDonald. I give a striking edge to McDonald because of his edge in power and boxing.
• Clinch: This is not a good place for Barao to end up in my not so humble opinion. Barao likes to work from the outside with his nasty kicks. The clinch neutralizes his best weapons while McDonald can still use his best weapons, his hands. Both men are relatively the same size so strength won’t play too much of a factor. The clinch, though, goes to McDonald pretty easily as he can dirty box Barao up while Barao will want to stay far away from the clinch. When one fighter likes the outside game and the other has better hands with more power, the clinch game is not a winning strategy for Barao. Edge definitely goes to McDonald in this category.
• Wrestling: This is an interesting area that makes me wonder the most about how it will play out. Neither Barao nor McDonald has any wrestling credentials and have not even shot in in for a takedown in their last 3 and 2 fights respectively. However looking at their statistics, Barao has very good takedown accuracy with 78%. The really impressive stat is his takedown defense which is an amazing 95%. Barao is extremely hard to takedown. McDonald is less impressive in the wrestling department but not by much. His takedown accuracy is actually higher than Barao’s at 86%. His takedown defense is what brings him down with a good but not to impressive 67%. I would say that although Barao has a slight edge in the wrestling phase, I think the only time this will come into play is if one of them really is dominating the other on the feet. Edge goes to Barao but not by much.
• Cardio: Bantamweights tend to have a ridiculous amount of energy and cardio is something that they generally possess in abundance. Although people gave Barao shit for his cardio in the Jorgenson performance, his cardio held up perfectly fine in his fight against Faber. Barao has plenty of cardio and in my opinion; cardio won’t come into play in this fight.
• Experience: This one also goes to Barao who has almost double the amount of fights as McDonald. However both have similar amounts of Zuffa experience with Barao having 6 fights under the Zuffa banner and McDonald having 5. Both have fought top competition as well. The edge will go to Barao again but only because he has more fights.
• Final Prediction: Usually people pick the champion and they would have extremely good reason to in this case as Barao seems to have all the tools to win. However, McDonald has the tools to give Barao hell on the feet where he is least comfortable, in boxing range. I am going to choose the challenger in this case. Michael McDonald by KO, round 2.

-Ben can be reached at [email protected]