Rosenthal League
Nolan Howell: 69-26, .726
Tim Hickey: 49-19, .721
Benjamin Kohn: 33-13, .717
Daniel Galvan: 19-8, .704
Tim Bernier: 23-11, .676
Christian Diaz: 23-12, .657
Winslow League
Josh Hall: 38-21, .644
Connor Dillon: 44-25, .638
Chris Groves: 30-19, .612
Lucas Bourdon: 7-5, .583
TC Engel: 20-20, .500
Luke Irwin: 57-58, .496
(After last week, we see a shift in the standings, as “Rollin” Nolan Howell reclaims his throne as king of kings, while Josh Hall falls into the Winslow [NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!] League, and yours truly falls into the deep, deep cellar. Even below TC, and that’s the worst.)
UFC Lightweight Championship: Benson Henderson (c) (18-2) vs. Gilbert Melendez (21-2)
Luke Irwin: Josh Thomson laid out a pretty convincing plan on how to beat Gil, and Bendo is a few levels above Josh and does everything he does better. On the flip side, Frankie Edgar laid out how to beat Bendo, but the difference is I don’t think Gil can do what Frankie can do. Henderson via UD.
Tim Hickey: In what I am anticipating should be a great fight, two of the best lightweights in the world will square off for that number 1 spot. I will be the first to admit I have been a Melendez mark for years, and really looking forward to him making his debut in the UFC. Even tho Benson has faced tougher competition over the last year and a half, I think as long as Melendez mixes up his boxing with takedowns, he can keep the champ off balance and take home a decision. Melendez via UD.
Ben Kohn: Bendo by UD– Bendo is just a better fighter and better athlete. He also has the size advantage so there really isn’t much Gil can do here.
Tim Bernier: Man I am pumped for this card. I’ve been looking forward to it for quite awhile. Benson Henderson’s rise to the top of the 155 pound division is nothing short of remarkable. I’ve been less impressed by Melendez lately. Benson’s quick striking attack combined with his ability to transition between the phases of striking and grappling seamlessly is going to wear out Gilbert quickly. My only question is whether or not Benson gets the finish. This will look more like his fights with Nate Diaz and Jim Miller than the Edgar fights. Benson Henderson by Unanimous Decision.
Nolan Howell: This fight is a clash of two very talented fighters. However, for Gilbert Melendez, I can’t really see a path to victory. Benson Henderson has the advantage in wrestling, grappling, and variety in striking. The standup technique is relatively close, but Henderson has more tools to choose from, namely using his tree trunk legs to kick. Melendez will be game, but this doesn’t seem all that close to me. Ben Henderson by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: I have seen a lot of people that say Melendez is being slept on here. If those people are right, I am one of the guilty. I think the first two rounds will be relatively close, but eventually the champion wears the challenger down, winning a rather lopsided fight in the latter rounds. Ben Henderson via unanimous decision.
Heavyweight Bout: Daniel Cormier (11-0) vs. Frank Mir (16-6)
Luke Irwin: I think Mir is in for a world of hurt here. Not saying Cormier won’t get caught, because anyone can get caught, especially to Mir, but it’s Cormier’s positional awareness and dominance that sets him apart. Over five rounds, he was never in trouble against Josh Barnett, who may be the only heavyweight in the world to claim better grappling submission chops than Mir. Mir’s chin is much lesser than Josh’s too. Cormier via R2 TKO.
Tim Hickey: This is a nightmare matchup for Mir. A lightening quick striker with solid footwork, world class wrestling and knock out power. Despite a significant size advantage, unless Mir is able to pull guard or work for a trip takedown to get this fight to the ground, I can’t see how he wins this fight. Cormier via 2nd Rd TKO.
Ben Kohn: Cormier by KO rd 2- Cormier was able to dominate Josh Barnett and that is the most comparable matchup I can think of. Mir will not be able to take down Cormier and he is to slow imo to beat Cormier on the feet. If he had Barnetts chin, I would say he loses by decision but all of Mir’s losses are by KO and I see another one coming up for him.
Tim Bernier: Excellent, excellent fight. It’s got all of the tools for an exciting fight. Cormier is going to do great things in the UFC. He’s going to be the hell out of Mir. That isn’t a knock against Mir. Mir can and will submit everyone in the Heavyweight division but the top 5 or 6 guys. But this is a horrible stylistic matchup for him, and Cormier is just better at this point. I think this looks a lot like the Barnett fight, and I’m going a little more conservative than most and picking Cormier by Unanimous Decision.
Nolan Howell: If this goes to the ground, I could see Daniel Cormier getting sloppy and Frank Mir snapping a limb. Sadly, Cormier can dictate where this fight takes place with ease. On the feet, Mir could very well have the sharper striking. That said, I don’t trust him not to get caught and Cormier is not a guy you want to get caught by. Cormier has the power edge both on the feet and on the ground, so expect him to use that to control the fight until he can put Mir away. Daniel Cormier by first-round KO.
Josh Hall: I am all over the Cormier hype train here. I personally think it is not a matter of if, but when in this fight. Mir’s only advantage is in the submission game, and Daniel Cormier is the best wrestler he has ever faced. I expect this fight to be reminiscent of the Mir/JDS fight, and I will pick the same ending here. Cormier via 2nd round KO.
Lightweight Bout: Josh Thomson (19-5) vs. Nate Diaz (16-8)
Luke Irwin: Should be a fun, quick, striking match. Nate says this is his last bout at lightweight, so it’s easy to question his motivation, but it’s also Josh’s first fight in the UFC since 2004, so it’ll be hard to assess how he does on the big stage. Still, I see a fun matchup on the feet with Josh getting shorted on the scorecards again. Diaz via SD.
Tim Hickey: I have always thought that Thomson was criminally underrated while in Strikeforce, as he is a well rounded, tenacious and has a great chin. That being said, Nate Diaz is a handful on the feet and on the floor and I expect him to box up Thomson over the course of 3 rounds. Diaz via decision.
Ben Kohn: Thomson via UD. Nate’s biggest weaknesses are his plodding stance and his lack of speed/athleticism. Josh has extremely fast hands and his transitions between striking and takedowns is beautiful. I think he will be able to mix in his quick hands with some nice leg kicks, throw in some takedowns and take a decision.
Tim Bernier: Josh Thomson isn’t a bad fighter. He’s been impressive, even in his losses. Nate Diaz is just better. His striking at times can be scary good. I’m looking for a little more consistency out of him, but I think he takes this handily. Nate Diaz by Unanimous Decision.
Nolan Howell: This is another fight that I don’t see as being all that close. On the feet, Nate Diaz will use his reach to pop Josh Thomson at will. On the ground, Nate Diaz has the submissions advantage and likely has sufficient enough takedown defense to fend off Josh Thomson. Again, not unlike his former foe Gil Melendez, Thomson can make this a scrappy fight, but it won’t be enough. Nate Diaz by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: I think this is the toughest fight to call on the card. I thought Josh Thomson beat Melendez in his last fight (judges decision aside), but I think Diaz is a bad matchup for him. I think Diaz is able to do more work with his hands in this fight, and I don’t see Thomson doing enough on the ground to win this fight. I do expect this to be VERY close though. Screw it, Josh Thomson via split decision.
Welterweight Bout: Jordan Mein (27-8) vs. Matt Brown (16-11)
Luke Irwin: OH ‘DIS GON’ BE GOOD! Brown is a tough motherfucker, but so is Dan Miller. Brown’s never been finished by strikes, but neither was Dan Mller. I think it’ll be a hell of a firefight, and I think Brown is nutty enough to go the distance, but he doesn’t have the physical tools that Mein has. Mein via UD.
Tim Hickey: Matt Brown is coming off a career reviving 2012 in which he went 4-0 which included derailing the Wonderboy hype train and a vicious KO of Mike Swick. He has proven time and again he is as tough as nails and loves to drag people into an exhausting fight. As mentioned here before, I am very high on Mein and think he can reach the upper echelons of the division. Coming off a TKO of the previously unfinished Dan Miller, I expect Mein to take this one. Mein via decision.
Ben Kohn: Mein by UD– Matt Brown’s resurgence has been awesome to watch but it comes to an end here. While he won’t KO him, Mein will beat Matt on the feet for 3 rounds.
Tim Bernier: MATT BROWN BLOODY ELBOW FIGHTER OF THE YEAR IS GOING TO TAKE IT TO THIS STRIKEFORCE BUM. All kidding aside, Jordan Mein’s textbooks armbar escape and brutal, composed finish of Dan Miller should have Matt Brown scared. Mein is going to be able to take advantage of Brown’s simply subpar striking abilities. This is going to be one sided violence. Mein by Submission.
Nolan Howell: A lot of folks are riding the Jordan Mein hype train. After thrashing one of the toughest guys in the game in Dan Miller, it isn’t unjust. Against Matt Brown, Jordan Mein could be facing some problems, especially given the fact that he took this fight on short notice. While there is a good chance for a gritty win for Brown here, Mein has enough fight IQ to stand at range and do what he does best. Jordan Mein by first-round TKO.
Josh Hall: I don’t want to watch this fight, or make a prediction here. I am a huge Matt Brown fan, and Jordan Mein is likely to do terrible things to him. I’ve been really high on him since beat Evangelista Santos to a living death with standing elbows, and I don’t see Brown having the answers here. I’ll say Mein rocks him in the second, then secures a choke for the finish. Sigh. Mein via 2nd round submission.
Featherweight Bout: Chad Mendes (13-1) vs. Darren Elkins (16-2)
Luke Irwin: Love, LOVE this matchup. Was calling for it after Elkins’s destruction of Antonio Carvalho. This will be great for both men. Elkins gets his considerable step up, and Mendes gets to fight a tough, tough wrestler, which he seldom does. Whoever wins is in the title hunt. This is definitely going the distance, I just think Mendes is a tad better and can outquick Elkins, who’s more of a big grinder at FW. Mendes via SD.
Tim Hickey: For the first time since losing to Jose Aldo back in Jan of 2012, Chad Mendes is fighting a top 10 fighter. Elkins is taking this fight on short notice after starching Antonio Carvalho last month at UFC 158 and is riding high. The problem for him is that Mendes is better than him everywhere, and outside of landing a bomb, I think Elkins is in for a tough night. Mendes via decision.
Ben Kohn: Mendes by UD– Elkins is the rightful underdog and while he has looked extremely impressive in his win streak, which is the longest in the division, he has yet to face anyone like Mendes. Mendes is a better athlete and better in Elkins best skill which is wrestling. I think Mendes can take this fight wherever he wants to and although he won’t put him away, he will dominate him to get a UD.
Tim Bernier: After Mendes’ loss to Aldo, he got two ridiculously easy matchups with Cody McKenzie and Yaotzin Meza. He’s finally getting a step up in competition, but it’s still not as high as I’d like. Mendes is a -750 favorite at the moment and I see no reason to disagree with that. Mendes by Unanimous Decision.
Nolan Howell: Darren Elkins is going to have major staying power at featherweight and could even surprise some top-ten guys. Unfortunately, Chad Mendes has solid enough technique on the feet and is a lot better at the grind that Elkins is known for. Mendes can control this fight wherever and could even pull off a finish, but we know what the safe choice is. Chad Mendes by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: Mendes is a giant favorite on the money line, but I’m not so sure on this one. Both men win most of their fights via decision, but neither has ever actually been on the losing end of one. My heart says Elkins here, but my brain says to go with Mendes. Ugh, Mendes by unanimous decision I guess.
Middleweight Bout: Francis Carmont (20-7) vs. Lorenz Larkin (13-0)
Luke Irwin: This is a rough matchup for Larkin, even at middleweight. I can see Carmont having his way with him on the ground early and often. Carmont via R1 Submission.
Tim Hickey: Continuing in the Strikeforce vs UFC theme, two middleweight prospects square off in Carmont vs Larkin. While Larkin is technically undefeated, we saw him get smashed up by a roided up King Mo in Strikeforce, and showed he didn’t have great takedown defense. Expect Carmont to do exactly that and try to grind Larkin out for 15 mins. Carmont via decision.
Ben Kohn: Larkin by KO rd 2– Let’s put it this way. Carmont is not good, even if we all want him to be. Larkin is good and should be able to takedown Carmont and beat the hell out of him getting a stoppage in the second.
Tim Bernier: Carmont can have a suffocating (read: boring) wrestling style at times when he isn’t active. He gasses too hard. I think he has his hands full with whoever he fights from this point on. Larkin isn’t bad and has won his way up the prospect ladder, but at this point Carmont is better. Carmont by another Decision.
Nolan Howell: Francis Carmont is a very lackadaisical fighter. He has some nice finishing power, but he seems to negate that with his tendency to fight down. For Lorenz Larkin, he’ll need to fight up and be ready to go for it for fifteen. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem likely and Larkin’s weird striking will find its mark over and over again. Lorenz Larkin by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: I think Larkin is the fighter with far greater upside here, but Carmont is the kind of fighter that poses problems for the flashy striker. If Larkin wins, he is likely to put Carmont on his highlight reel, and if Carmont wins this could be the most dull fight on the card. I am unfortunately predicting the latter. Carmont via ugly grinding decision.
Lightweight Bout: Myles Jury (11-0) vs. Ramsey Nijem (7-2)
Luke Irwin: Ehhhh…Nijem isn’t a bad fighter, but his best win is over Joe Proctor, and he hardly dominated that. Jury looked like an absolute force in his last fight as he humbled Michael Johnson something ferocious. I don’t think this one’s close. Jury via R1 Submission.
Tim Hickey: Hey look, it is the standard “Couple of TUF guys” fighting. Jury looked great in a straight up domination of Michael Johnson in his last fight, which I haven’t been super impressed with Nijem. Jury via decision.
Ben Kohn: Nijem by UD– Nijem has really come along nicely since his stint on TUF. He can wrestler, he can box, he has cardio, he has heart, and he has a good chin to. I see him winning a good but not great fight en route to a decision.
Tim Bernier: Hey look! TUF fighters! Myles Jury and Michael Johnson lost me a good bit of money in Vegas. Fuck Myles Jury. Myles Jury by decision.
Nolan Howell: Ramsey Nijem is a fun fighter that is usually pretty entertaining. However, it is very rare to see Nijem not put himself in some kind of trouble. Myles Jury is likely to exploit that, as Nijem’s winging punches or constant movement on the ground leave plenty of room to get caught. Myles Jury by first-round submission.
Josh Hall: I like Ramsey, but if the same Jury shows up that did against Michael Johnson, he is in for a long night. Jury by dominant decision.
Flyweight Bout: Darren Uyenoyama (8-3) vs. Joseph Benavidez (17-3)
Luke Irwin: John Moraga is still next on deck for DJ, but this fight could, and probably will, signal who is next in line. JoeB is still the undisputed #2 Flyweight in the world, and either he adds another impressive win to his resume, or Darren gets the win of his life and dibs on Mighty Mouse. Still, I think JoeB is too much. Benavidez via UD.
Tim Hickey: In what could be considered a title eliminator in the relatively weak flyweight division, this should be a fun and exciting matchup. The problem is that Benavidez is just flat out a better fighter than Uyenoyama, and I suspect that will be evident by the end of the fight. Benavidez via 2nd round guillotine.
Ben Kohn: Benavidez by Sub rd 2– This fight is gonna be freaking awesome! I think Joe-B will outstrike and eventually hurt Darren on the feet and will pull off the Alpha Male guillotine. However, Darren is one hell of a live dog and if it goes to the ground, Joe-B needs to watch out for this grappling experts submissions.
Tim Bernier: Ahh, another Darren Uyenoyama fight. Looks like I’m muting the commentary. Benavidez outclasses him. Benavidez by Submission.
Nolan Howell: Darren Uyenoyama’s grappling is a treat, but aside from that, Joseph Benavidez has this fight handily. He could negate Uyenoyama’s grappling with his power submissions and top-game, but this will be contested on the feet. Joseph Benavidez will solidify his role as flyweight Fitch in terms of rankings. Joseph Benavidez by second-round TKO.
Josh Hall: Benavidez has way better standup and wrestling, so I see him controlling all aspects of this fight. Benavidez via unanimous decision.
Lightweight Bout: Jorge Masvidal (23-7) vs. Tim Means (18-3-1)
Luke Irwin: Well, Means seems to have survived the sauna this time around, so with that in mind, this is my FOTN pick right here. Gonna be an all-out battle. Three years ago, Masvidal was losing to Luis Palomino in G-Force Fights and Means was toiling in KOTC undercards. That should bring hope to every regional and indie fighter out there. That being said, Means likes to bang, bro, and Masvidal has the kind of fire to return volley. Masvidal via R3 TKO.
Tim Hickey: My pick for a potential FOTN winner. Means is a killer, having finished 4 of his last 5 opponents, all of the finishes in the 1st round. While I don’t expect that to happen here, as Masdival is extremely tough (he hasn’t been finished since that absolutely ridiculous inverted triangle that Toby Imada caught him in back in 2009) Expect this to be a 3 round war. Means via decision.
Ben Kohn: Masvidal by UD– This fight is gonna be fun. Masvidal is a seasoned vet with 30 fights but is still only 28! He has good hands, good kicks, good wrestling, and a smothering top game. Means is striker with power and that is always dangerous. However I think Masvidal can avoid the big punches and grind out a decision.
Tim Bernier: Tim Means and Jorge Masvidal are going to fight, provided Means doesn’t slip in the sauna again. I’m not sold on Masvidal, but I’m less sold on Means. Masvidal by Decision.
Nolan Howell: I’m fully expecting some ultraviolence in this fight. Jorge Masvidal is tougher than a two-dollar steak and relies on striking to either put his opponent out or pummel them to a decision. Tim Means seems to be willing to exchange, and with his length, why wouldn’t he be? Masvidal is probably the better striker, but if Means uses his reach, I see something getting through on an upset alert. Tim Means by second-round TKO.
Josh Hall: Tim Means has one of the most interesting stories in MMA. From jail time, to the cancellation of UFC 151, to suffering the first KO of his career at the hands of a hot tub, the lanky LW is 2-0 in the UFC, coming off a violent KO win over Justin Salas. Jorge Masvidal brings 30 fights of experience into his UFC debut. I’ll take the vet to win a tough war in a sleeper for FOTN. Masvidal by decision.
Bantamweight Bout: Hugo Viana (7-0) vs. TJ Dillashaw (7-1)
Luke Irwin: History shows that fighters taking on accomplished wrestlers for the first time seldom works out well for them. Dillashaw via UD.
Tim Hickey: In a battle of bantamweight prospect, I expect Dillashaw to continue to raise his stock with another very nice victory here. Dillashaw via 1st round KO.
Ben Kohn: Dillishaw by UD– TJ is better than Viana and will cruise to an easy UD since I doubt he will finish him.
Tim Bernier: I’ve been impressed by TJ Dillashaw in his early UFC career. He’s an Alpha Male guy, but I might like him. I can’t say the same about the TUF fighter who beat a guy who lost 3 of his 4 UFC fights. Violence. Dillashaw by KO.
Nolan Howell: People are putting a lot of stock in Hugo Viana’s KO of Reuben Duran, neglecting the fact that he hasn’t finished an opponent otherwise. TJ Dillashaw is too strong and has the mighty wrestling advantage. He can likely hang on the feet, but he ultimately can stifle his opponent if he feels threatened. TJ DIllashaw by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: This fight doesn’t interest me very much, to be honest. Dillashaw via 2nd round KO.
Lightweight Bout: Anthony Njokuani (15-7) vs. Roger Bowling (11-3)
Luke Irwin: Dating back to WEC 50, Njokuani has alternated wins and losses every fight. He lost his last one, so here comes the W! I think Bowling will try and stand with Njo to make an impression in his UFC debut, and I believe that will end poorly for him. Njokuani via R2 TKO.
Tim Hickey: Njokuani via decision.
Ben Kohn: Njokuani by KO rd 1– Njokuani is a striker and Bowling is not. Bowling needs a takedown or he will get knocked out and I don’t think he will get it.
Tim Bernier: Remember when Njokuani knocked out Chris Horodecki? That was awesome. Njokuani by KO.
Nolan Howell: Roger Bowling likes to knock folks out and is an average wrestler. Anthony Njokuani is better at what Bowling likes to do and can stifle grappling, or at least grapplers the level of Bowling. Anthony Njokuani by first-round KO.
Josh Hall: Bowling was once a very highly touted prospect, but hasn’t quite lived up to the potential he showed early on, going 3-3 in his past 6 fights. I think the stand up of Njokuani will be the difference here, and he wins a decisive 3 round decision. Njokuani via unanimous decision.
Middleweight Bout: Clifford Starks (8-1) vs. Yoel Romero (4-1)
Luke Irwin: Remember when Clifford Starks was on the main card of a PPV? Yikes. Anyway, I like Romero here. Pairing him up with Feijao was a huge mismatch, as Rafael is one of the best in the world at neutralizing someone’s wrestling and takedowns and making them pay dearly (see: Mo, King). Starks does not possess such attributes. Romero via UD.
Tim Hickey: Starks via decision.
Ben Kohn: Romero by KO rd 1- When you put two wrestlers together, it usually becomes a shitty striking match. However when you put an Olympian wrestler with good and powerful striking vs. a pretty standard wrestle-boxing style, you get a first round finish.
Tim Bernier: Uh… Yeah. Yep. Sure why not. Romero by KO.
Nolan Howell: Yoel Romero has a good wrestling background and trucked some fighters at 205. His only loss is to Rafael Cavalcante, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Sorry, Clifford Starks, just don’t see anything you can do here. Yoel Romero by first-round TKO.
Josh Hall: Romero is a highly touted prospect, but at 35 it is now or never for him. I think he gets it done here in violent fashion against an over matched Clifford Starks. Romero via 1st round KO.
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