Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva Breakdown

Contributor: Josh Hall

UFC 160 is the Saturday, and the main event pits UFC Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez and Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva against each other in a rematch of their UFC 146 bloodbath won by Velasquez.  It is an odd scenario to see the two men squaring off against each other almost exactly one year after one of the most definitive heavyweight fights you could ever see.

In their first fight, Cain took down Silva within the first five seconds, and from there he went to work with frenetic ground and pound.  He cut Silva with a short elbow from half guard, and from there it was only a matter of time.  The giant was opened up, and a brutal fountain of blood spewed forth from his cranium.  Velasquez only became more relentless (if that is even possible) after seeing blood, and mercifully referee Josh Rosenthal stepped in at the 3:34 mark of the first round.

Bigfoot offered zero offense in their first encounter, and many people believe there is no reason to expect anything different in the rematch.  These people may be right, but out of respect for the resume of Bigfoot, I’m going to dig a little deeper and see if there is anything that might indicate otherwise.  Specifically, I’m going to look at the first fight before the cut happened.  Evaluating anything after the cut is pointless for analysis, because a man blinded by his own blood with Cain Velasquez on top of him is already beaten.  It’s only a matter of time.  However, we did see one minute of action pre-cut, and it wasn’t the blowout I remembered.

Only 5 seconds into the fight Silva threw a right leg kick which was caught by Cain.  He instantly took down the off balance big man and went to work with ground and pound.  Initially Silva did a good job with defense from his back, keeping Cain from landing anything effective.  Silva looked to work an overhook with his left arm and shrimp out from half guard, but Velasquez kept his weight distribution under control, not allowing the sweep to happen while maintaining half guard.

The fight changing blow was the elbow roughly one minute into the round, and the fight instantly changed.  To that point Bigfoot had actually done a pretty good job of avoiding damage while on his back, but with his vision severely impaired it was like shooting fish in a barrel for the then former UFC champion.

So, Josh, why should we expect this to be any different?  You probably shouldn’t, to be honest.  I see nothing that has changed in either fighter one year later.  Bigfoot could make a better tactical decision to avoid kicks, which might keep him on his feet longer, but the speed difference between the two men is so great that Bigfoot is at a serious disadvantage.  Normally the strategy for someone as aggressive as Cain is to try and survive early on and wait for the man to tire (see the Overeem fight for a great example of Bigfoot using that gameplan), but Cain just doesn’t get tired.

For all the great upsets Bigfoot has pulled off in his career, if you wanted to design a prototype of a fighter to beat him, it would be Cain.  Speed + Neverending Cardio + World Class Wrestling = A Nightmare for Bigfoot.  The math does not lie.

In my estimation, the only place Bigfoot hold a true advantage over Velasquez is in the submission grappling aspect.  The best chance for Silva that I can see is to try and induce a scramble in the grappling where he can secure top position.  For all the talents we have seen from Cain in the Octagon, we still don’t know if he has much in the way of a guard game.  Wrestlers do not like to fight from their back, and Bigfoot’s top game is every bit as devastating as the champion.  His problem is getting the fight to that position, and I think it is a very unlikely prospect.

But what about the standup, you ask?  There is a reason I haven’t talked about it much.  Anyone who saw Velasquez/Dos Santos 2 knows why.  Cain’s constant aggression not only was effective in getting JDS to the mat, it all but neutralized his vaunted striking, with Velasquez actually showing an advantage on the feet.  In a pure striking matchup that would not happen in my estimation, but a great striker can become vastly mediocre when they are forced to put their entire focus on staying upright.  Both men have proven to possess knockout power standing, but Cain is simply not going to let this fight turn into a kickboxing match.  Even if he did, I still don’t know that Bigfoot holds any advantage there.  He did KO Alistair Overeem, so it is reasonable to think he can win a stand up fight, which is exactly why Cain won’t allow the fight to take place on the feet.

This fight is going to come down to which man can impose his will on the opponent, and Cain is a master at that.  He has a much easier path to victory, and is as high as -850 with some bookmakers.  I find this line to be pretty accurate, and I would not touch this fight from a betting perspective.  It is the champion’s fight to win, and the smart money says he will do so in impressive fashion.

My Prediction: Cain Velasquez via 1^st round TKO after massive ground and pound.

-Josh can be reached at [email protected] or @jhall282.