Contributor: Ben Kohn
At UFC 161, two fighters get a chance to redeem their previous performances in which they both lost and were knocked out of contention. Rashad Evans is on a two fight losing streak, the first understandably to Jon Jones in the only fight Jones has gone to a decision to as a champion. The other however was against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in a very…lackluster showing against a man he was supposed to easily dispatch. Dan Henderson was on a 4 fight win streak before running into the enigma that is Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Henderson looked downright impotent against Lyoto and couldn’t get anything going against the much faster and more skilled fighter and lost a split decision that should have been unanimous. Both these men are looking to get back in the title hunt and the winner will do just that. The loser however, will most likely not contend again anytime soon.
Rashad Evans has been a mainstay in the UFC ever since winning TUF 2 as a Heavyweight. Including his finale fight, he has gone 12-3-1 in the UFC with his losses coming to Lyoto Machida, Jon Jones, and Lil Nog and his draw was with Tito Ortiz (it should be noted Tito was deducted a point for fence grabbing in that fight). Primarily a wrestler at first, Rashad has improved vastly in the standup department over his career as evidenced by his brutal KO’s of Sean Salmon, Chuck Liddell, and Tito Ortiz. His wrestling has not suffered in the slightest, as did Josh Koscheck’s, and he has taken down every single fighter he has attempted to take down aside from Jon Jones. Rashad’s style of in and out quick strikes which he melds seamlessly into his takedowns is a thing of beauty to watch in action. When Rashad is in top form, his transitions from striking to grappling are on par with GSP. While he has not had to show any real grappling from the bottom, his top game is centered around positional dominance and ground and pound. He has never attempted a submission in his UFC career which is really crazy considering how can dominate most people on the ground. While he has power in his ground strikes (ask Forrest Griffin about that), he does not have lethal ground and pound that would cause opponents to panic or shell up. He has a steady and methodical pace, both in the standup and on the ground that is hard to match for anyone but the elite of the division.
Dan Henderson is a true legend of the sport. Making his MMA debut in 1997, Henderson has compiled a career worthy of any Hall of Fame. He has wins over Carlos Newton, Big Nog, Renato Sobral x2, Murilo Bustamante x2, Vitor Belfort, Wanderlei Silva, Shogun Rua, Fedor and the list goes on and on. He is a former 2 division PRIDE champion, former Strikeforce champion as well as UFC 17 tournament winner. I won’t go into his wrestling background but to be concise, it is very very good. Dan was going to face Jon Jones at UFC 151 and we all know what happened there. Dan got injured and ended up missing his opportunity. He was than matched up against Lyoto Machida who ended up winning by a split decision that really should not have been split. Dan actually looked his 42 years of age for the first time in a very long time and was always a step, if not two, behind Machida. This fight with Evans is his last real shot at another title run, specifically because of his age. This fight is the most important fight of his career and he should treat it as such, both of them should really. The outcome of this fight has profound implications for the future of the Light Heavyweight division.
Striking: Dan Henderson is a man I have already broken down before for his fight with Lyoto Machida. His entire striking game revolves around landing the H-bomb and he does not try to mask those intentions. His stance is so side on, that it basically 
eliminates his left hand as a weapon (unless he is brawling with you). Avoiding the right hand of Dan Henderson is really all any fighter needs to do and their chances of winning increases dramatically. Dan’s favorite set up is the left inside low kick which forces the opponent to stop from circling away from the right and proceeding to fire the right straight with all the ridiculous power in his body through that strike. Should it land on Rashad in this fight, he will be put down and hard.
Rashad Evans has a remarkably similar style of striking to Dan Henderson. Both have very side on stances to increase the power of their right handed strikes which compromises the effectiveness of their left handed strikes. Rashad also likes to through right leg roundhouse kicks to the body and head. He uses this technique relatively often and sometimes to great effect (see Sean Salmon fight). The biggest issue with Rashad though is his complete and utter lack of head movement when he actually attacks. On the outside he will bounce around and bob and weave but he charges in, he strikes with his head completely centered many a time and it can definitely spell trouble against a guy like Hendo.
On the feet their demeanors are both very odd. Henderson is very patient with his strikes but when he throws, he goes all in with full power every time and goes for the kill. Rashad is extremely patient, almost to a fault. He will wait and wait, sometimes just waits, until an opportunity presents itself and will sometimes just not do anything but wait. He seems to be risk adverse in the striking department while Henderson is exactly the opposite. Rashad will just simply not engage if he feels it will end badly for him. It really is hard to see someone whose striking looked sublime against Ortiz and Davis yet he has looked…meek for lack of better term against Jones and Lil Nog. Rashad is just an enigma right now on the feet for me and it is very hard for me to pick who really has the edge here. While Rashad has the physical and athletic tools to outpace and outwork Dan, his tendency to be very complacent on the feet worries me. I will give the edge to Dan simply because he can knock Rashad out and Rashad cannot do the same.
Wrestling/Clinch/Grappling: Rashad is a fantastic MMA wrestler. He is among the top 5 MMA wrestlers in the UFC in my opinion with only GSP, Jon Jones, and Cain Velasquez above him imho. He holds the UFC LHW record with 48 takedowns and seamlessly blends his striking into his takedowns in a way that is so beautiful, I wept from happiness when I rewatched his fight 
Rampage. What I am referring to is his beautiful left hood to the head, right hook to body followed by a driving double leg which he grounded Rampage with. My god it was beautiful and I love that moment in that fight. It exemplifies perfectly how well Rashad mixes his wrestling abilities with his striking to get his opponent down. He also uses the threat of the takedown to set up his power shots on the feet which he did right in the beginning of his fight with Rampage. Once on the ground, Rashad is a master of positioning and although he is no real submission threat, his steady and hard ground and pound will wear his opponents down. When he feels the time is right, he can unleash some serious power as was seen in his destruction of Forrest Griffin from the guard. His clinch game is something that we don’t see very often but that is mostly due to his blast double centered takedown game. However, Rashad is quite capable in the clinch, be it for striking or grappling although he tends to not hang around there very long. Overall, Rashad has one of the most complete wrestling and grappling games at LHW and it is his clearest path to victory against Hendo.
Dan Henderson has some serious wrestling accolades as a 2 time Olympian in Greco-Roman wrestling. Those skills however do not translate to well for him in the cage. In fact, Dan has pretty much become completely one dimensional with his fight game. His wrestling, both offensive and defensive are mediocre at best. His clinch game is centered on him bombing his opponent with rights and lefts and his grappling is…not very good. The bottom line is that Dan doesn’t really match up with Rashad in the wrestling or grappling department. While his credentials may be better, the skills have not translated to MMA well at all.
The edge definitely goes to Rashad in the grappling department. His timing and execution of the takedowns and incredible top control is a nightmare matchups for the slow moving and helpless off his back Henderson.
Cardio: Oh boy this one we all know the answer too. Henderson’s cardio is notoriously bad and in a 5 round fight, he is basically impotent after the 3rd round. However, this is a 3 round fight which allows Hendo to not worry so much about gassing. Still Rashad has shown his cardio to be quite and the bottom line is, Rashad has the edge by far.
Speed: This is going to play a huge factor in this fight. Rashad is an extremely fast fighter. Dan is extremely slow and plodding. Rashad will have to use this speed in order to quickly strike and takedown Hendo. Staying standing for long periods of time is really not smart because every second on the feet is another second for Hendo to land that big right hand. Once Rashad gets Hendo down, he should be able to keep him there. After 2 rounds of that, Hendo will be gassed and Rashad can have his way with him. Edge goes to Rashad.
The bottom line with this fight is honestly whether Rashad will fight smart or not. He knows what Hendo wants to do and has the tools to completely take that away from him. The question is if he will do so, or play Hendo’s game. I am completely unsure of who to pick because of the way Rashad has looked and his past complacent tendencies. However I will pick Rashad to beat Hendo by unanimous decision.
-Ben can be reached at [email protected] or @agentbenten
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