Contributor: Benjamin Kohn
In Saturday nights main event, we have a battle between two men who have attained legendary status in the eyes of MMA fans. One has gone undefeated his whole career and is the undisputed king of every division, governor of Oregon, and protector of the realm, Chael P. Sonnen. The other is a man who once destroyed all comers in his path until his knees formed a union and went on strike for better pay, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Coincidentally, Shogun’s knees are the reason why Dana wants to avoid a union of the fighters so badly.
Seriously though, both of these men made their respective marks on the MMA world. Sonnen nearly scored the upset in his 4 ½ round beatdown of former Middleweight champion Anderson Silva and has become known as one of the biggest and best trash-talkers in the game today. He also has some damn good skills to back that trash talk up with wins over Michael Bisping, Brian Stann, Yushin Okami, and Nate Marquart. His only losses in the last 4 years were to Anderson Silva and Jon Jones. That is a damn fine resume if you ask me. Shogun at one time was considered the best Light Heavyweight in the world, actually on multiple occasions. After his run of destruction in Pride, he was expected to quickly make short work of the UFC Light Heavyweight division and win the title. Despite Forrest Griffin screwing those plans up, Shogun did eventually win the title and ended the Machida era before it even got started. Since winning the title, Shogun has gone 2-3, alternating wins and losses with wins over Forrest Griffin and Brandon Vera and losses to Jon Jones, Dan Henderson, and Alexander Gustafsson. Despite these losses, Shogun is still a dangerous opponent for any Light Heavyweight and neither of these men is going to give up easily. This will be a grueling matchup that I for one cannot wait for.
The way this matchup will play out is very simple. If Shogun can keep it on the feet, he will win. If Sonnen is able to take down Shogun at will, which Shogun’s takedown defense indicates may be the case, than Sonnen has the advantage but not the win. Despite Sonnen being an excellent wrestler and top control fighter, he has shown a susceptibility to being caught by submissions. He seems to have really worked out those problems for the most part but it is still a concern. This match will be decided by the grappling but I will still break down the striking for you, my adoring fans.
Sonnen’s standup is actually not bad at all. The reason for this is he actually honed his striking in a way that compliments his 
wrestling. He knows where his strengths lie and uses his competent striking to close the distance and get in on his opponents hips. His constant forward movement and use of his left overhand and hooks to close the distance really work as Sonnen can definitely hurt you if he hits you. This forces his opponents to cover up and defend allowing Sonnen to duck under and grab onto your hips. There really isn’t much more to say about Sonnen’s striking other than it is incredibly effective because it allows him to get into position to do what he does best.
Let’s get one thing straight right away. Shogun is NOT a technical boxer at all. Despite having some of the best kicks ever at Light Heavyweight, his hands are just not nearly on the same level technically. He does not have head movement, does not parry, and comes straight forward leading without jabbing, throwing uppercuts and hooks as well as his straight right as a lead which is just not quick enough. The reason he is able to do this is because his chin is seriously legendary at this point. The absolute beating he took from Hendo without going out was just insane. If you brawl with Shogun, you will take shots and you will most likely be the one to fall down. However, Shogun’s kicking is another story. Shogun has some seriously beautiful kicks at his disposal and the way he chopped down Machida in their first fight with body and leg kicks was just magnificent. While his knees have significantly reduced his kicking output in recent fights, he is still a wrecking machine with those kicks and will use them to batter the legs and body of his opponents if you give him the opening.
Shogun is definitely the more accomplished and decorated striker of the two but Sonnen uses his striking in the more efficient way. For this reason, I will actually give the striking edge to Chael Sonnen (come at me bro).
The clinch is somewhere that Shogun can use his powerful knees to seriously hurt and weaken Sonnen. He will blast knees o’ plenty to your ribcage and noggin if you allow him to. The problem is that Sonnen is a decorated Greco-Roman Olympic alternate wrestler who actually uses his wrestling skills in MMA. Against Shogun, he will have a size and strength advantage as well so I think the edge in the clinch game goes to Sonnen as well.
The grappling is where things get interesting. I believe Sonnen will not have much of an issue getting Shogun to the ground. Shogun’s wild style of striking and Sonnen’s constant forward pressure will end up with Shogun on his back multiple times throughout the fight. The thing is once it hits the ground, the fight is most definitely not over. Shogun uses something called the deep-half guard superbly to set up sweeps and leg-lock attempts. In order to do so, he will need to get deep under Sonnen’s hips and break Sonnen’s connection to the mat. See a fighter on top needs a connection to the mat, no matter how heavy or strong they are, in order to stay on top and control their opponent. Once that connection is separated, that means that the guy 
on bottom has complete control of where their opponent’s weight is going. Shogun will use the leg-lock attempts from the deep-half to either submit, which happened one time against Kevin Randleman, or the much more likely scenario of a sweep will happen in order for Shogun to get back to his feet and try to hurt Sonnen standing. Shogun’s frequent use of the deep-half is something Sonnen for sure knows about and the bout will hinge on this particular position in respect to the grappling.
Sonnen has an absolutely stifling top game that is frenetic and endless. Sonnen stays glued to his opponent, never allowing them to breathe or have a break with a steady and constant stream of half power punches. This allows him to knife through the guards of almost everyone he has faced, even Silva who is notorious for recovering and maintaining the guard. Sonnen, despite his submission of Brian Stann, has not shown much of a submission acumen before and against a blackbelt like Shogun, I seriously doubt we will see him win by submission. Sonnen though does possess the ability to throw very hard punches when he does not feel like he is in danger. If Shogun gasses and is slow and defensive, look for Sonnen to increase the output and power in his ground and pound. Shogun’s chin will most likely prevent a KO but a TKO due to lack of defense is not out of the question. Now Sonnen has been submitted in most of his career defeats but he has clearly shored up those defensive holes for the most part and Shogun is just not a submission based fighter off of his back, especially from his guard. Sonnen will also be more than content to ride out rounds in the guard with some light strikes in order to prevent a standup, wearing Shogun down until he can make his move. The edge in the grappling goes to Sonnen.
Cardio is something we all know Shogun lacks. He gasses early and he gasses hard, especially in fights when grappling is involved. His knees are basically shot and he has taken insane amounts of punishment over his career. Sonnen on the other hand is a cardio machine and will not tire in a 10 round fight and that will be a huge factor here. Shogun has maybe 2 good rounds in him before he starts to gas and after that, Sonnen’s superior conditioning will really shine through. Edge by miles goes to Sonnen.
I know many of you will call me crazy for giving such a huge edge to Sonnen but look at the facts. Shogun really has not looked good since the Machida fights and against Gus, despite not completely gassing, still got tired in a fight that was all standup and at a slower pace than he usually fights at. Sonnen, despite his two losses in a row, lost those fights to Anderson freaking Silva and Jon freaking Jones. Against Pride Shogun, I would pick Shogun all day but this is 2013 Shogun and I am picking Chael Sonnen by Unanimous Decision.
-Ben can be reached at [email protected] or @agentbenten.
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