It can be difficult to fully evaluate a player using advanced stats, partially because there are so many variables to consider. One can be a Corsi Genius, yet only be playing six or seven minutes a night against fourth line competition with a massive swing of offensive zone face-offs. Due to this, it’s been very difficult to develop a “catch-all” stat to evaluate a player’s performance or impact on his team. Dominic Galamini’s HERO Charts have done a very good job of presenting this – Usage Adjusted Corsi or Fenwick For/Against along with scoring production visualized as bar graphs, showing where a player falls in terms of “line usage”.
Just under a year ago, Stephen Burtch of NHL Numbers and Sportsnet.ca revealed a version of his own “catch-all” stat he calls dCorsi. This stat combines a variety of categories to form numbers for expected Corsi For/Against. The results can be output as rate stats (dCorsi/60), or as something called “dCorsi Impact” – the player’s dCorsi/60 multiplied by their average 5v5 TOI/60. The goal of this is to combine a player’s offensive and defensive output to determine the best “all-around” players in the game.
dCorsi Impact is a fun way to evaluate a player’s over-all contributions at both ends of the rink in a nice, singular number. It’s not the be-all, end-all stat, but it’s interesting to look at and compare Blue Jackets players with counterparts throughout the league without having to scroll through handfuls of categories.
Looking through the Columbus Blue Jackets leaders list in dCorsi Impact, it’s no shock to see who finished near the top, but the order may be somewhat surprising. There were a couple of relatively impressive showings a bit further down the list, as well. Despite spending the better part of the year getting their heads kicked in, even during portions of their long undefeated streaks, the Jackets top end managed to float slightly above average in dCorsi production. The blueline performances, however, left a lot to be desired. It was easy to see that the team’s defensive zone play was lackluster on most nights, and it appears as though improving this will be a primary area of focus of management during the off-season.
THE GOOD
Marko Dano (111.34 dCorsi Impact) was a breath of fresh air during his second stint with the Jackets towards the end of the season, and his line with Scott Hartnell and Alexander Wennberg dominated the opposition on most nights. Though there were some caveats to the numbers – small sample size, over 50% ozone starts, majority of play against 2nd/3rd/4th liners – all three still came out favourably in dCorsi Impact, with Dano especially standing out. In fact, Dano was not only the team leader in dCorsi Impact, but he finished 41st in the NHL.
The aforementioned Hartnell (98.5) and Brandon Dubinsky (90.54) finished second and third on the team, respectively. Dubinsky was, as usual, the two-way stud on the team, often drawing match-ups against top competition while still faring well in the shot attempt differential game. Due to the roster flux throughout the season, Dubinsky had a rotating cast of characters on his line, including a surprisingly productive eight game stint with Rene Bourque towards the end of the season, and yet managed to remain effective in all aspects.
Rounding out the top five were Artem Anisimov (89.61) and Nick Foligno (66.16). Anisimov’s two-way game is shown exceptionally well by his dCorsi Impact, as his contributions are spread almost equally between exceeding his expected Corsi For and expected Corsi Against. Foligno’s effect on the team stems primarily from his prevention of Corsi Against, which I was not expecting to see.
The only real stand out on the blue line was Cody Goloubef, who lead the Blue Jackets defense in dCorsi Impact with 62.59. After a bit of a rickety start to the season, marred by a couple of minor injuries and long periods of healthy scratches, Gold Beef excelled down the stretch and finished off the season with nearly a dozen very strong games. He is an unrestricted free agent this off-season, but has potentially played his way into next year’s top six, assuming he’s willing to re-sign with Columbus.
Alexander Wennberg (47.26) finishing with a positive dCorsi Impact is a good indicator of just how strong he’s been in the latter half of the season, making up for some of his early growing pains. Though he’s has been incredibly unlucky in the goals for/against department, and in PDO (a 956 PDO on the season – yikes), his over-all play has been very steadily improving. It’s going to be a vindication of sorts when those goals finally arrive.
THE BAD
Jared Boll (-120.44) and Corey Tropp (-116.06) were the worst two players on the team in dCorsi Impact. Boll was 934th out of 968 players qualified, while Tropp was 932nd. These guys aren’t good. This is not news. Michael Chaput (-71.06) was a distant third and, while he didn’t exactly perform well, he wasn’t anywhere near the same black hole as Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum.
What really struck me was who finished fourth worst on the team: Ryan Johansen. Joey’s defensive ability isn’t anything to write home about, and he’s not been much of a play-driver. These issues are reflected in his over-all Impact (-65.52) and also in that he underperformed in both expected Corsi For AND Against, not just in one specific area. This isn’t me saying that Johansen is bad and let’s ignore his point production, but more along the lines of agreeing with what Blue Jackets management has been saying all year: Johansen has a ton of room to grow. If he can continue putting up 70 points a season while developing more of a possession game? Watch out!
Jack Johnson (1.52) was actually quite a bit higher than projected defensively (…which isn’t saying much), but was not as productive as anticipated on the offensive end, and thus ended up at about break-even – even with modest projections. Fedor Tyutin, Jordan Leopold, Kevin Connauton, James Wisniewski, and David Savard were all well below their expected impact, which isn’t surprising, as the defense was pretty much the most glaring concern throughout the season.
To check out the rest of the dCorsi listings, check it out under the “Labs” tab at the awesome War On Ice, or just click here.
– Jeremy
Follow me on twitter, @307x
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