Staff Standings:
Rosenthal League:
Benjamin Kohn: 78-31, .716
Tim Bernier: 58-23, .716
Daniel Galvan: 19-8, .704
Tim Hickey: 99-46, .683
Nolan Howell: 121-58, .676
Josh Hall: 87-43, .669
Winslow League:
Connor Dillon: 67-37, .644
Chris Groves: 30-19, .612
Lucas Bourdon: 21-15, .583
Luke Irwin: 117-85, .579
Earl Montclair: 7-6, .538
TC Engel: 20-20, .500
Welterweight Bout: Carlos Condit (28-7) vs. Martin Kampmann (20-6)
Luke Irwin: Their first fight was a masterpiece, but I don’t think we see a sequel of that this time. Kampmann is, admittedly, a slow starter, but just because you recognize a problem doesn’t mean you can fix it. Condit may not have Johny Hendricks power, very few on the planet do, but what he does have is unrelenting pressure. If Georges St. Pierre was human, that headkick and followup finishes him and almost anyone on the planet. Condit won’t let him off the hook the way that fighters like Thiago Alves have. Condit via R1 TKO.
Earl Montclair: This is really a perfectly timed rematch. Both men are at a crucial point in their career where another loss will really set them back for an extended period of time. Johny Hendricks defeated both of them en route to his upcoming title fight with Georges St. Pierre, who is responsible for Condit’s other loss on his current two fight skid. This fight is so great now because unlike the first bout, it will have 25 minutes to unfold. I think Condit will plant one on Martin’s chin and we all know about Carlos’ finishing skills. I just hope it comes in the latter part of the fight because this should be tremendous. Carlos Condit, TKO, Rd 4.
Josh Hall: These 2 men fought to a split decision 4 and a half years ago with Kampmann getting the nod, and I expect this fight to be close as well. I think this is going to come down to which fighter is able to control the distance better, and I feel Condit is just a little more effective in that regard. Condit via split decision.
Nolan Howell: Condit by unanimous decision.
Ben Kohn: A rematch of an awesome fight from long ago. Carlos has risen to be among the top 5 WW’s in the world and held an interim title while Kampmann has struggled to establish himself as a top contender. Condit has improved his striking, grappling, and wrestling too, since their last fight. While Kampmann has definitely improved, he has not shown the same level as Condit has. His chin has also been cracked an ungodly amount of times since their first fight as well. While I don’t see Condit finishing Kampmann since he lacks the power of a guy like Hendricks, he will dominate Kampmann and prove that he is the better man. Condit by UD.
Lightweight Bout: Donald Cerrone (20-5) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (19-6)
Luke Irwin: Interesting matchup here, as Cerrone doesn’t fight many grapplers, and dos Anjos would probably identify as one, even though he isn’t your classic wrestler. Cerrone is a tough guy to get to the ground and usually fights a pretty smart game. dos Anjos has gotten a couple gift decisions during his impressive run, but I think Cerrone’s length and Muay Thai keeps him at bay and does enough damage to end RDA’s streak. Cerrone via UD.
Earl Montclair: I am a big fan of “dos Anos” as Mike Goldberg would call him. His ever evolving Muay Thai game has complimented his vicious BJJ skills and made him a truly well rounded fighter. Cerrone is fresh off his destruction of KJ Noons and is looking to get back in contention after dropping 2 of his last 5. RDA should have lost his last bout with Evan Dunham and that doesn’t bode well for a fight with Cowboy. Donald Cerrone, Unanimous Decision.
Josh Hall: Dos Anjos has done a great job of resurrecting his UFC career after he had his jaw broken in 2009 against Clay Guida, but Cerrone is a really bad stylistic matchup for him. Cerrone should be able to use his superior muay thai and solid defensive grappling to stay a step ahead of the Brazilian here. Cerrone via unanimous decision.
Nolan Howell: Cerrone by second-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Like Chael said, everyone loves a comeback story. RDA has finally cracked the top 10 and has looked pretty good in his recent 4 fight win streak over guys like Evan Dunham and Mark Bocek. However, it seems like the UFC wants Donald to win because despite improving his striking, he still shows many flaws that Cerrone, a lethal Thai striker, can capitalize on. RDA is really tough and Cerrone sometimes lacks a killer instinct so I see him dominating RDA in the standup en route to a decision win. Cerrone by UD.
Welterweight Bout: Brian Melancon (7-2) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (6-0)
Luke Irwin: I would say that Melancon’s striking won’t bother Gastelum since Uriah Hall’s didn’t, but as we see, Hall isn’t exactly what we thought he was. Melancon is a tried and true striker, but I think Gastelum withstands it, gets it to the ground, and slaps on a rear-naked choke. Gastelum via R2 Submission.
Earl Montclair: Well, I’ll just hope for another TUF winner to suffer a brutal loss. Melancon will not be anywhere near as timid as Uriah Hall and Gastelum won’t be able to deal with it. Brian Melancon, KO, Rd 1.
Josh Hall: This is kind of a strange matchup, as both men are coming off huge upset wins in their last fight. Gastellum is one of the unlikeliest TUF winners ever, and Melancon made his UFC debut coming off a 2 year layoff and ran through an experienced and tough Seth Baczynski. If his last fight wasn’t a fluke, I think Melancon could be a little too much, too soon for the 21 year Gastellum. That being said, I’ve been wrong in picking against Gastellum in each of his last 3 fights, but in a fight I view as a coin flip I’ll go with the homer pic and take the fellow Houstonian. Melancon via 2nd round KO.
Nolan Howell: Gastelum by unanimous decision.
Ben Kohn: Kelvin is making him WW debut against the man who snapped Seth Bazchqij8o2jad (something like that) 5 fight win streak with a brutal KO. Kelvin is undefeated and consistently was the upsetting underdog in his fights. I think he finally is the favorite and there’s good reason for it. Kelvin seems to do what he has to to win and does everything well but nothing great. Cliche jack-of-all-trades fighter but it’s enough to take out Melancon, a short stocky brawler. Gastelum by UD.
Welterweight Bout: Court McGee (15-3) vs. Robert Whittaker (11-2)
Luke Irwin: Whittaker is a fun, fun fighter to watch, and while McGee isn’t nearly that, he is fundamentally sound and has an iron chin. McGee can ugly it up and I don’t think Whittaker can stop that from happening. McGee via UD.
Earl Montclair: Robert Whittaker is fresh off a thorough beatdown of Colton Smith and is looking to put away his second TUF winner. Court McGee’s story is a great one & I remember being in Honda Center when he beat Ryan Jensen and the reaction was tremendous. Whittaker may not be able to strike with his hands at his waist in this fight, but I still think he has the edge. This one might be a bit ugly, but not nearly as ugly as Court’s face will be when the decision is read. Robert Whittaker, Unanimous Decision.
Josh Hall: Whittaker looked really good in his first fight since winning TUF: Smashes, battering fellow TUF winner Colton Smith. However, Court McGee can do everything Smith can do and more, is a far bigger man, and landed the most significant strikes in UFC WW history in his debut in the weight class. McGee via unanimous decision.
Nolan Howell: Whittaker by split decision.
Ben Kohn: McGee looked phenomenal against Josh Neer with his devastating body work and also looked unimpressive with his low fight IQ by not continuing what nearly finished a seriously hurt opponent. Whittaker looked good in his victory over grinding wrestler Smith and which would not bode well for McGee except for a few things. McGee can strike with power, is a former MW who won’t be bullied around by Whittaker and is also a submission threat. Whittaker is not an easy man to finish though sooooo McGee by UD.
Bantamweight Bout: Erik Perez (13-4) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (17-7-2)
Luke Irwin: Goyito! Erik Perez is on an absolute tear right now, and this fight makes perfect sense. Mizu is the kind of mid-level gatekeeper Perez needs to beat to get into the upper-echelon of the division, which I think he will. Perez via R2 Submission.
Earl Montclair: I love Takeya Mizugaki but he is running into a buzzsaw here. Erik Perez, Submission, Rd 2.
Josh Hall: Perez has come into the UFC making waves with his luchador mask and 3 first round finishes in as many fights. However, Mizugaki is a giant step up in competition for the 23 year old and he has been in there with some of the best in the world. It also remains to be seen whether Perez has mentally and physically recovered from a scary staph infection that left him fearing for his life and a bout with depression that saw his weight balloon to 180 pounds. He seemed to make weight comfortably, so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and take Perez via close decision.
Nolan Howell: Perez by second-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: I seem to be one of the few people who aren’t jumping on the Perez hype train. Miz is a tough, crafty, and most of all, very skilled fighter who has been in the cage with some of the best fighters in the world and come out conscious. Miz will amazingly increase his win streak to 3 and show Perez that he just isn’t ready to step up yet. Mizugaki by UD.
Middleweight Bout: Brad Tavares (10-1) vs. Bubba McDaniel (21-6)
Luke Irwin: I don’t think this one will be very close, as I see Tavares just imposing his will on McDaniel, while McDaniel will try and look for the submission. I don’t think Tavares gets caught. Tavares via UD.
Earl Montclair: Tavares has strung together 3 decision wins after his loss to Octagon Wall Strength Tester Aaron Simpson. This will make it 4 straight. Brad Tavares, TKO, Rd 3.
Josh Hall: Despite having 16 less fights and being 5 years younger than McDaniel, Tavares has fought and beaten far better competition. He is the more physically gifted fighter by far, and I don’t think Bubba can throw anything at his that he hasn’t seen before. McDaniel has only gone to decision once in his 27 fight career, so that seems unlikely here. Tavares via 2nd round KO.
Nolan Howell: Tavares by first-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: I really am nervous about this one. Bubba is really being underestimated because of his performance on the show. He is a crafty and well rounded fighter with a savvy submission game and very fluid striking that he can use from any range. Tavares is a hard nosed, power punching brawler who’s boxing-centric attack requires him to get in on the rangy McDaniels. Bubba really likes to finish though and will take risks to do so and I feel he will and it will cost him dearly. Tavares by KO rd 2.
Middleweight Bout: Dylan Andrews (16-4) vs. Papy Abedi (9-2)
Luke Irwin: Abedi is moving up to his previous weight class to face Andrews, a veteran of the Australian scene. Both of these guys are going to end it on the feet and this has dark-horse FOTN potential. I see a good back and forth contest with someone getting the short end of the stick. Abedi via SD.
Earl Montclair: 3 of Andrews’ 4 losses have come via submission but Papy Abedi couldn’t submit James Toney. I was stunned Papy got a 3rd fight after being strangled by Thiago Alves and James Head. Andrews has submitted 3 opponents as well and the fact that he even knows what a submission is makes this an easy one. Dylan Andrews, Submission, Rd 2.
Josh Hall: In only his 4th UFC fight Papy Abedi has gone from debuting against Thiago Alves to fighting the last pick from a recent TUF season. That being said, I really can’t think of much of a reason to pick Andrews either. Abedi via unanimous decision.
Nolan Howell: Andrews by second-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Abedi at one point was a serious prospect but now he is likely going to get cut with a loss here. Andrews is a scrappy and tough fighter with good striking and decent grappling. He is also much larger than Abedi and should be able to keep range on him. Abedi is very stiff standing up and will have a hard time getting inside and I think he gets messed up badly. Andrews by KO rd 1.
Welterweight Bout: Brandon Thatch (9-1) vs. Justin Edwards (8-2)
Luke Irwin: My pick for FOTN right here. Edwards is a constantly entertaining fighter and is always game for a good back-and-forth grappling contest, and all of Thath’s nine wins have come via first-round stoppage. Edwards is talented enough to drag him out of the first round where Thatch may be unprepared. Edwards via R3 Submission.
Earl Montclair: Thatch has 9 career wins with 9 career 1st round stoppages heading into his UFC debut here against “Fast Eddie”. I am going to break rule #493 of fight predictions: The Kendall Grove Misspelled Nickname Rule. Brandon “Rukus” Thatch, Death, Rd 1.
Josh Hall: Thatch has only left the first round once in his 10 fight career, and it was also his only loss. Edwards is coming off bar far the biggest victory of his career, a first round submission victory over Josh Neer. I think Thatch may hurt Edwards early, if he can weather the early storm I think he can win this fight in the last 2 rounds by getting it to the mat. Edwards via close decision.
Nolan Howell: Edwards by second-round submission.
Ben Kohn: Thatch is a serious prospect and is coming in on an 8 fight winning streak with every one of his wins by a finish. Edwards is a hard nosed meat and potatoes style fighter with a dirty boxing game that would impress Randy Couture and very underrated grappling skills which he showed off in his very quick submission of Josh Neer. I think Edwards grinds this one out to a decision. Edwards by UD.
Featherweight Bout: Darren Elkins (16-3) vs. Hatsu Hioki (26-6-2)
Luke Irwin: This will be an interesting clash of styles for two guys that need a win. For Elkins, a win gets him back on track after his machine-like new life as a featherweight, and for Hioki, it could mean his job as well as the reputation of JMMA fighters coming into the UFC. Can Hioki’s boxing keep Elkins at bay long enough or will Elkins be able to wade through and ground-and-pound brutalize Hioki? Elkins via UD.
Earl Montclair: Hatsu Hioki has been nothing short of colossal disappointment in a long series of colossal disappointments for JMMA superstars in the UFC. He has gone to decision in both his UFC victories (Palaszewski & Roop) as well as both his losses ( Lamas & Guida). Darren Elkins falls into one of those two types of fighters and it’s not the right one if you are Hatsu Hioki. Darren Elkins, Unanimous Decision.
Josh Hall: Hioki came over from Japan as a highly touted top 5 FW, but has struggled to live up to expectations. He has lost back to back fights after turning down a UFC FW title shot, and may need a win here to keep his job. I think Elkins has good enough wrestling to grind out the win here, but this could very likely be the third close decision fight for Hioki out of 5 UFC fights. Elkins via split decision.
Nolan Howell: Hioki by split decision.
Ben Kohn: The once #2 FW in the world has lost 2 in a row and number 3 is usually the magical number to get cut. Elkins is coming off a devastating loss to Chad Mendes and is looking to regain his lost momentum. Elkins is a hard hitting ground and pound grappler with meh striking while Hioki is a stellar grappler with decent range striking. Look for Hioki to jab Elkins a lot and mix in some kicks en route to a decision. Hioki by UD.
Welterweight Bout: James Head (9-3) vs. Jason High (16-4)
Luke Irwin: Neither of these guys have had cushy schedules in the UFC. Their past three opponents have been Brian Ebersole, Mike Pyle, and Erick Silva. Yikes. So it’s probably for the best they face each other. Head will have the size advantage heading into the cage, but as far as skill-wise go, they’re pretty even. Both have some nice wins on their resume. If I had to guess, I’m thinking they both come in rather tentatively, as they both got stopped in pretty spectacular fashion in their last fight. This one is going to the judges and someone’s gonna get screwed. Head via SD.
Earl Montclair: Jason High is looking to rebound from his shellacking at the hands of Erick Silva. Head will have a 5″ reach advantage and I suspect he will put that to good use here. It makes me sad to do it but: James Head, Unanimous Decision.
Josh Hall: Head is the far bigger of the two fighters here, but I think High can use his speed advantage to get the fight to the mat. I expect him to fight with a great deal of desperation, because a loss here would drop him to 0-3 in the UFC and almost certainly mean his release. High via unanimous decision.
Nolan Howell: Head by unanimous decision.
Ben Kohn: High is a submission grappler and Head is an insensitive douchebag who wears dumb t shirts saying America is a two time world war champion. As a Jew whose family went through the Holocaust, I take exception to that. High by UD.
Welterweight Bout: Ben Alloway (13-4) vs. Zak Cummings (15-3)
Luke Irwin: Cummings has had an interesting road to the UFC, fighting as high as Light Heavyweight, headlining a Strikeforce Challengers card against Tim Kennedy, fighting Ryan Jimmo for the MFC championship, and the like. He’s a submission-artist by trade, while Alloway is a bit more well-rounded, but can get caught. I always go with experience and strength of schedule if I’m torn, and Cummings has it. Cummings via R3 Submission.
Earl Montclair: When in doubt, pick the dude with the porn star birth name. Zak Cummings, Submission, Rd 1.
Josh Hall: Zak Cummings looks to be in the best shape his career by far for his WW debut, a huge difference from the man that only 3 fights ago fought Ryan Jimmo at 205 pounds. I think he has the grappling advantage here and can use that to get the fight to the ground. Alloway has struggled with submissions in the past, and I think he likely does again here. Cummings via 2nd round sub.
Nolan Howell: Cummings by unanimous decision.
Ben Kohn: Cummings will most likely end up going for the takedown after trying to stand with Alloway and get the submission. Cummings by Sub rd 2.
Lightweight Bout: Abel Trujillo (10-5) vs. Roger Bowling (11-4)
Luke Irwin: Besides Bobby Voelker being a perpetual thorn in Bowling’s side, his only other losses were to Tarec Saffiedine and Anthony Njokuani, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Both of these guys have a lot of raw, physical power and have put on showstopping performances inside the ring/cage over their career, so I think some haymakers will be thrown with someone landing a big one early. Bowling via R1 TKO.
Earl Montclair: I don’t give a shit what happens here as long as twice convicted woman beater Abel Trujillo gets beat and gets his walking papers. Roger Bowling, TKO, Rd 1.
Josh Hall: Bowling is coming off 2 straight losses for the first time in his career, but Trujillo is nowhere near the level of Saffiedine or Njokunai. I think he has the speed and power to take the fight to take the fight to Trujillo and hurt him early. Bowling via 1st round KO.
Nolan Howell: Bowling by second-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Bowling is looking to convince everyone he is as good a prospect as once thought while Abel is trying to beat someone other than his wife. Bowling will show him what it means to fight someone who can fight back. Bowling by KO rd 1.
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