UFC 165 Staff Predictions

 

UFC 165 Staff Predictions

Rosenthal League:

Daniel Galvan: 19-8, .704

Tim Bernier: 65-28, .699

Benjamin Kohn: 92-41, .692

Tim Hickey: 105-52, .669

Josh Hall: 107-57, .652

Nolan Howell: 137-76, .643

Winslow League:

Connor Dillon: 73-43, .629

Chris Groves: 30-19, .612

Lucas Bourdon: 33-22, .600

Earl Montclair: 27-20, .574

Luke Irwin: 140-108, .565

TC Engel: 28-23, .549

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship: Jon Jones (c) (18-1) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (15-1)

Luke Irwin: The UFC is pushing reach as the tipping point of the fight, and there’s no doubt it will come into play, however, Phil Davis might be the reason why. Who’s the only fighter that went the distance in a title fight with Jones? Rashad Evans. Who did Rashad defeat to get title shot? Phil Davis. Evans was able to keep it a ballgame on the feet instead of the usual massacre it becomes. Did he lose more exchanges then he won? Sure, but he was able to land some good ones and he doesn’t have nearly the reach or size that Gus does. Gus not only faced Phil Davis, but trains with him at Alliance. If there’s anybody alive that can attempt to replicate Jones’s size and reach, it’s Davis. I think Gus gives Jones his toughest test yet on the feet, but I think late in the fight, Jones lands something just hard enough to put Gus on the floor, and Jones grabs a choke. Jones via R4 Submission.

TC Engel: I love Gustafsson, I really do. There’s just nothing he can do that can put Jones away. I think Jones might play with his food a bit here before finishing him late. Jones TKO, round 4.

Ben Kohn: Jones is the better range striker and he is by far the better grappler. This really is not gonna be all that competative in my opinion and I feel like Jones will jab him and kick him a bit before taking him down and subbing him. Jones by Sub Rd 2.

Earl Montclair: Jon Jones has all the stars lining up here to put on his most fantastically brutal performance since he choked Lyoto Machida into a living death and dropped his limp body onto the canvas. The Mauler doesn’t even have a puncher’s chance to me when I look at this fight. I believe that after a somewhat tentative first round of range finding and adapting to Alex’s length, Jon Jones will destroy another contender and remain YOUR 205lb Overlord. Jon Jones, Submission, Round 3.

Nolan Howell: Jon Jones is quite possibly the best fighter in MMA today, especially considering what happened to Anderson Silva. Now, Alexander Gustafsson presents an interesting problem on the feet with his height, but otherwise, Jones can do what he wants here. Ultimately, that’s what wins the fight for him. Jon Jones by fourth-round TKO.

Josh Hall: I would love to be wrong here, but I don’t see any way that Gus can win this fight. Jones is simply better than the rest of the weight class, and should be able to follow the Davis gameplan to secure the victory. Jones via 2nd round submission.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

UFC Interim Bantamweight Championship: Renan Barao (c) (30-1) vs. Eddie Wineland (20-8-1)

Luke Irwin: Wineland’s one hell of a fighter and always comes with everything he has, but it’s just a matter of talent. Hustle can steal you a round or two, but over five rounds, the cream rises to the top. I think Wineland hangs in, probably takes a round or maybe two, but Barao is just on another planet right now. Barao via UD.

TC Engel: Wineland’s career resurgance has been wonderful to watch. I picked against him in both of his prior wins, versus Scott Jorgensen and Brad Pickett, and am going to do so again. Barao is simply on another level than the rest of the 135 lbs division. I don’t see Wineland being finished for the first time since Rani Yahya, though, so I’ll take Barao by UD.

Ben Kohn: Despite my original pick for Barao, I am changing my pick to Wineland. Wineland’s boxing arsenal and aggressive counter punching attack is the perfect counter for a kicking based fighter with meh boxing who moves straight back in a line for defense. Wineland will be on the feet long enough to hurt and finish him. Wineland by KO Rd 2.

Earl Montclair: I am so happy the UFC didn’t scrap this bout after Barao was injured a few months back. Eddie Wineland deserves this fight and it should be a very entertaining affair. Renan Barao is bar none the best Bantamweight on the planet and he will put on another great performance here. Dominick who? Renan Barao, Submission, Round 3.

Nolan Howell: Renan Barao is a mixed bag as a fighter to me. While undoubtedly the best in his division, he often times looks very uninspired in fights. Against Eddie Wineland, he will certainly have the ground edge and variety of strikes to take the win. However, Wineland’s boxing is some of the best in the game because of his unique in-and-out style and gritty pace. If you were betting your life on this, you’d know to go with Barao. Fortunately, I’m in no such position. Eddie Wineland by second-round TKO.

Josh Hall: With all due respect to Dominic Cruz, Renan Barao is the best BW in the world in my opinion. He is just too well rounded for Wineland. Barao via 3rd round submission.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Heavyweight Bout: Brendan Schaub (9-3) vs. Matt Mitrione (6-2)

Luke Irwin: TUF 10 NEVER DIE!! I think Schaub learned his lesson and doesn’t want to climb any more ladders to heaven, and we see, ugh, a full Lavar Johnson-ing of Mitrione here. Schaub SD.

TC Engel: Am I supposed to give a shit about this? I’m not sure, but I think the combination of Schaub’s chin and Mitrione’s improved striking is going to spell a short night and a long sleep for Schaub. Mitrione KO, round 2.

Ben Kohn: This fight can go one of two ways. Either Schaub can take down and grind out Mittrione for a win similar to his win over Lavar Johnson. Or Mittrione can knock him out standing. I am gonna pick the latter because 1) Schaub is chinny and Mittrione has decent TDD and big power. 2) I like the sound of that better than Scaub by UD. Matt Mittrione by KO Rd 1.

Earl Montclair: If Brendan Schaub fights Meathead the same way he fought Lavar Johnson, we riot. Matt Mitrione, Unanimous Decision.

Nolan Howell: Brendan Schaub apparently has the tools to beat Matt Mitrione. Last I checked, Mitrione was a little more competent in staying off the mat and not getting tapped by mediocre kickboxers than Johnson. That should be enough here. Matt Mitrione by first-round KO.

Josh Hall: In a battle of 2 middling HWs, I’ll go with the one that is 20+ pounds heavier and doesn’t have a glass jaw. Mitrione via 1st round KO.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Middleweight Bout: Costa Philippou (12-2) vs. Francis Carmont (21-7)

Luke Irwin: This is one fight that Carmont isn’t going to be able to escape to the judges to steal another win. Philippou R1 TKO.

TC Engel: I can’t stand to watch Carmont. He should’ve lost to Tom Lawlor. He was out-wrestled by Tom Lawlor. He was out-struck by Tom Lawlor. Costa Phillippou is better than Tom Lawlor. Phillippou KO, round 1.

Ben Kohn: Carmont has just been on a roll of bad decisions and his “winning” streak ends here. Costa is a legit top ten fighter with big power, good wrestling, and can hurt Carmont badly. Carmont is a good kicker but I think Costa will batter him en route to a clear decision in his favor. Costa by Unanimous Decision

Earl Montclair: Everyone’s 2nd favorite undeserving decision winning fighter is on the main card for some odd reason. I think that Carmont’s magical ways and Costa’s karma for trying tickle Tim Boetsch’s brain through his eye sockets make this a pretty easy choice. Francis Carmont, Unanimous Decision.

Nolan Howell: Francis Carmont’s timid kickboxing and solid ground game will not be enough to eek him out an ugly and undeserved decision. Costa Philippou’s ground game is just as competent and his boxing game is better in power and technique. Add what may be a good size advantage and ability to match up Carmont’s raw skill and it is academic. Costa Philippou by unanimous decision.

Josh Hall: This fight has ugly written all over it. Since it is a Carmont fight, a bad/controversial scorecard also seems inevitable. Philippou via split decision.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Lightweight Bout: Khabib Nurmagomedov (20-0) vs. Pat Healy (29-16)

Luke Irwin: Now THIS is the damned fight right here. My FOTN pick and I’m going to enjoy the hell out of this ground war. I don’t think Khabib is going to be able to pull off his suplexing goodness on Healy. He’s too much of a veteran, he’s too big and he’s too heavy on his feet. This is going to be a battle of who can impose their will, and I think Healy is just too tough and too well-versed to get in a bad situation against Khabib. Healy via UD.

TC Engel: I don’t buy the Khabib hype train for whatever reason. He hasn’t faced anyone that’s as capable of grinding him down as Healy is, and I think Healy will do just that. Healy by UD.

Ben Kohn: This is gonna be a very fun fight as both of these guys are really good grapplers and have fun sloppier striking. I think neither guy will finish the other and both will look good in this fight. Healy by Unanimous Decision.

Earl Montclair: this is the most compelling fight on the card for me. A win at this point for Healy would be enormous for his career after his win over Joe Lauzon. It’s too bad he lost over 100K in bonus cash for smoking THE MOST EXPENSIVE JOINT EVER. It’s also too bad him doing that resulted in something good happening to Bryan Caraway but I digress. Khabib is still early in his career and he could rebound from a loss much easier than Pat but I just can’t pick against The Eagle. Suplexes aplenty! Khabib Nurmagomedov, Unanimous Decision.

Nolan Howell: This is a big step in competition for Khabib Nurmagomedov. If nothing else, Pat Healy has proven that he can outgrind the best grinders on any given day. Nurmagomedov is similar in that he likes to impose his will en route to either violently finishing or dominating to a decision. Healy is not going to be the type to be muscled around and he will hang everywhere with Nurmagomedov to win it ugly. Pat Healy by unanimous decision.

Josh Hall: This should be a really good fight and the winner will move into contention at 155. I would be surprised if either man gets a finish in what I expect to be a very close, back and forth fight. I think Khabib is just a little better overall, and that will be the difference here. Nurmagomedov via close unanimous decision.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Lightweight Bout: Mike Ricci (8-3) vs. Myles Jury (12-0)

Luke Irwin: Ricci is going to try and ugly this up a whole bunch, but Jury is smooth enough to keep it out of the clinch and keep it at standing range, at which point he’ll be able to take out Ricci. Jury via R2 TKO.

TC Engel: Ricci by UD.

Ben Kohn: Jury has looked really good in his last few fights and Mike Ricci is has thoroughly unimpressed me as of yet. Jury is also a really big LW and I think he will beat Ricci badly. Jury by KO Rd 2.

Earl Montclair: A dude nicknamed “The Martian” whose first name is not Marvin? GTFO! Jury is going to send Ricci to the upscale shopping mall in the sky. Myles Jury, Monster KO, Round 1.

Nolan Howell: Mike Ricci is competent everywhere, but Myles Jury hits pretty hard and will have a monster advantage on the mat. Myles Jury by second-round TKO.

Josh Hall: Jury has looked really good after 2 bad TUF stints while Ricci has underwhelmed after a fair amount of hype. Jury should look for the TD early, and has massive ground and pound if he gets it. Jury via 1st round KO.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Bantamweight Bout: Ivan Menjivar (25-10) vs. Wilson Reis (16-4)

Luke Irwin: Both of these men have been around the world, and neither really learned how to strike effectively. I’ll take Menjivar’s sub game over Reis’s, but they’re both good enough to where I don’t think either gets caught with anything, which could either lead to an insane ground fight, or a boring kickboxing match. Menjivar via UD.

TC Engel: Menjivar by UD.

Ben Kohn: Menjivar by KO Rd 2.

Earl Montclair: Forgive me, The Pride Of El Salvador. Wilson Reis, Unanimous Decision.

Nolan Howell: Ivan Menjivar is the much more well-rounded fighter and can hang with and best Reis in pretty much every area besides submissions, where he could likely play defense to get to a better position. Ivan Menjivar by unanimous decision.

Josh Hall: Reis has never beaten a fighter at the level of Menjivar, and I see no reason to expect that to change here. Menjivar via unanimous decision.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Welterweight Bout: Chris Clements (11-4) vs. Stephen Thompson (7-1)

Luke Irwin: I can’t pick Stephen Thompson in good faith if I want to look at myself in the mirror. Clements via R2 TKO.

TC Engel: BOY OH BOY, ONE OF MMA’S ELITE STRIKERS IN ACTION! HOW IS THIS ON AN UNDERCARD!? I HAVE TO TAKE FUTURE UFC AND K-1 CHAMPION STEPHEN THOMPSON BY VICIOUS KNOCKOUT IN THE VERY FIRST ROUND.

Ben Kohn: Thompson’s striking is not as good as everyone thinks at all. However, it should be enough to beat the brawler Clements. Thompson by Unanimous Decision.

Earl Montclair: Hopefully Thompson gives us something to get excited about here. Wonderboy, KO, Round 1.

Nolan Howell: Stephen Thompson has shown some improvements and he should be able to keep this fight where he wants it against a phone-boother like Clements. Staying at range and working the flashy kicks will take a toll here. Stephen Thompson by second-round TKO.

Josh Hall: Clements has been finished 5 times, and while I don’t rate Thompson very highly I think he should be able to keep the fight at range and pick apart the Canadian. Thompson via 2nd round KO.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Bantamweight Bout: Dustin Kimura (10-0) vs. Mitch Gagnon (9-2)

Luke Irwin: These guys have ALL the submissions. Dear lord a lot. But Gagnon has gotten caught in a submission before while Kimura has yet to and rarely lets people escape to the second round. Kimura via R1 Submission.

TC Engel: Gagnon by UD.

Ben Kohn: Kimura by Decision.

Earl Montclair: Mitch Gagnon, Unanimous Decision.

Nolan Howell: This is going to be a matter of time. Gagnon has finishing power early, but Kimura can outlast. I’ll count on cardio. Dustin Kimura by unanimous decision.

Josh Hall: This is an interesting matchup between two guys who have almost all wins via submission. Gagnon has had problems in the later rounds, and I think that Kimura can catch him then. Kimura via 3rd round submission.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Lightweight Bout: John Makdessi (11-2) vs. Renee Forte (8-2)

Luke Irwin: A win over Terry Etim is nothing to scoff at, but Makdessi’s striking is going to comfortably keep Forte at bay the entire time for a dominant decision. 30-26s incoming. Makdessi via UD.

TC Engel: Makdessi by TKO, round 3.

Ben Kohn: Makdessi by KO Rd 1.

Earl Montclair: Makdessi should splatter this dude with something fancy. John Makdessi, KO, Round 2.

Nolan Howell: Taekwondo awesomeness. John Makdessi by first-round TKO.

Josh Hall: Makdessi has fought far better competition and Forte is taking his first ever fight out of Brazil. Unless he gets the fight to the ground early Forte is going to get beat up badly on the feet. Makdessi via 2nd round KO.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Lightweight Bout: Jesse Ronson (13-2) vs. Michel Prazeres (16-1)

Luke Irwin: Both guys have kicked around their respective regionals, in Canada and Brazil, but Ronson’s promotions and opponents have been much more reputable than Prazeres’s. Factor in that this is Prazeres’s first fight out of Brazil and I just don’t like his chances. Ronson via R3 KO.

TC Engel: Prazeres by submission, round 1.

Ben Kohn: Prazeres by Unanimous Decision.

Earl Montclair: Michel Prazeres, Unanimous Decision.

Nolan Howell: Michel Prazeres by unanimous decision.

Josh Hall: Like Forte, Prazeres is also venturing out of Brazil for the first time, and he is coming off a loss to a shell of Paulo Thiago. Ronson has won 8 straight fights and has the far better stand up game and decent takedown defense. Ronson via unanimous decision.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Bantamweight Bout: Alex Caceres (8-5) vs. Roland Delorme (9-1)

Luke Irwin: I’ve done almost a total 180 on Caceres, from his stupid-ass Bruce Leroy shit to all-around grappling whiz who constantly puts on ridiculously fun grappling battles. This should be great. Darkhorse FOTN candidate. Caceres via R3 Submission.

TC Engel: Caceres by UD.

Ben Kohn: Caceres by Unanimous Decision.

Earl Montclair: This one should be a lot of fun. Should be good enough to make the FS1 prelims. Roland Delorme, Unanimous Decision.

Nolan Howell: Caceres by split decision.

Josh Hall: Caceres has a very deceiving record and it light years better than he was on TUF. A year ago I would have taken Delorme here without hesitation, but I think Caceres can get the fight to the ground and out grapple him. Caceres via unanimous decision.

 

UFC 165 Staff PredictionsUFC 165 Staff Predictions

Heavyweight Bout: Daniel Omielanczuk (15-3-1) vs. Nandor Guelmino (11-4-1)

Luke Irwin: Be wary of a Polish fighter who couldn’t even get fights in KSW. Something is amiss. Guelmino via R1 Submission.

TC Engel: Guelmino by horrible UD.

Ben Kohn: Nandor by Unanimous Decision.

Earl Montclair: Please don’t be as bad as Palelei v Krylov. Please don’t be as bad as Palelei v Krylov. Please don’t be as bad as Palelei v Krylov. Please don’t be as bad as Palelei v Krylov. NANDOR, uNANDORmous Decision.

Nolan Howell: Daniel Omielanczuk by first-round TKO.

Josh Hall: Is this fight really on a UFC card? Seriously? Guelmino via unanimous decision.

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