Contributor: Ben Kohn
The trilogy between two of the very best Heavyweights of all time will commence in the main event of UFC 166 and finally settle who the true Heavyweight king really is. The trail of beaten fighters these two have laid waste to reads as a who’s who of Heavyweights. Antonio Silva 2x, Brock Lesnar, Big Nog, Junior Dos Santos, Ben Rothwell, and Cheick Kongo (when it still meant something) have fallen victim to Cain. Junior’s list is no less impressive with wins over Cain Velasquez, Mark Hunt, Frank Mir, Shane Carwin, Roy Nelson, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Fabricio Werdum. These two men are undoubtedly the two best Heavyweights in the world and with each having a win over each other and each having a very clear path to victory, the MMA world waits with baited breathe to see who will establish themselves as number one.
We have already seen what these two men can do against each other in their previous two fights with one another but of these two fights, which gives us the best clue as to how Saturday night’s fight will play out? Junior’s one minute KO over Cain on the very first Fox card shows us that he can put Cain away with one punch (and some nice follow up punches for good measure). However, Cain’s complete and utter domination of Junior from pillar to post in their second fight at UFC 155 shows us that Cain can absolutely control and dominate Junior for five rounds without letting up for a moment. Both have entered their fights with injuries and both know they need to repeat their previous performances in order to repeat the outcomes. The problem is figuring out whose game plan is more easily replicable. Let’s take a look at how these two will stack up in the trilogy fight.
The striking aspect of this fight is not so cut-and-dry. While Junior is clearly the more skilled pure striker of the two, Cain uses the threat of his takedown to set up his striking. In their first fight, Cain shot for a takedown a whopping 33 times while succeeding 11 times. The missed attempts, especially in the first round, did serve a purpose. By not allowing Junior to have the space and distance with which he likes to work his game, he never allowed Junior to set himself and throw with the power and base he is known for. Take a look at their first fight for a moment if you have the fight, if not then visualize it. The fight, while only lasting about a minute, took place almost entirely, save a few seconds, inside the center of the cage. The black mini-octagon line inside the cage is pretty much the free space in the cage and Junior was allowed to remain there, unpressured and free-roaming, to work his striking. Now let’s contrast it to the second fight and we can immediately see the difference between them. Cain right off the bat pushes Junior back behind that black line forcing him close to the cage, not allowing Junior to get comfortable and control the striking range. Before even looking at how they mold their striking, we already see how much the control of the octagon changed over the course of their two fights.
Now moving on too how these two actually use their striking to set up their primary objectives. For Junior, it’s to land a KO punch to Cain’s head while Cain will seek to do what he did in their second fight and overwhelm Junior. In the first fight, Junior effectively used his powerful body jabs and straight punches to get Cain to drop his hands. 6 of his 10 strikes attempted on the feet were directed towards the body (including the knockdown punch) and re-watching the footage clearly shows Cain didn’t enjoy those punches. In fact Junior immediately preceded his massive cross counter right with a jab to the chest which got Cain to drop his hands slightly before returning a jab that Junior landed the cross counter over the top. Junior loves to use this technique of attacking the body to expose the head of his opponent and it has worked incredibly well over the course of his career. The problem is that he needs space to effectively implement this gameplan of long straight punches to the body. Cain did a masterful job of taking away that space in the rematch. Let’s take a look at how he accomplished this.
As mentioned before, Cain immediately began pressuring Junior right off the bat thus removing the space Junior needed to generate power in his punches. See, Junior’s preferred method of movement is of the linear kind. Darting in and out of striking range with hard shots before his opponent can retaliate, almost like a fencer. Junior’s lateral movement is effective but his punching is generally not nearly as effective when he is backing away/circling away from his opponents and is relegated to 
weak jabs and left hooks (which incidentally was the punch that he threw before getting dropped in the first round). By forcing Junior to stay both on his back foot it did not allow Junior to get into his usual rhythm of that fencing linear movement. Junior was able to land shots here and there but many were thrown from a squared up stance in which it’s very hard to generate real power from the hips. Cain’s constant forward movement and takedown attempts forced Junior to lower his hands to prevent them, opening him up to Cain’s punches. It was really amazing to watch as Junior’s hands crept lower and lower as the round went on and Cain landed more and more before landing that huge right hand that dropped Junior. Cain’s ability to use his wrestling to force Junior to be completely focused on defending the takedown attempts rather than defending his face is what made all the difference in the second fight. This was aided in part by Junior’s inexplicable unwillingness to attempt to punish Cain for those failed takedown attempts. Each time Cain shot in desperately, Junior would shake his leg free with Cain belly down and just walk away. To change Cain’s spamming takedowns, he needs to attempt to hurt Cain for missing on those attempts. This could be a huge factor in making this fight not look like a repeat of their second fight.
Overall, it will not come down to who hits harder or even who’s the better striker. This fight on the feet will simply come down to who controls the range and where the fight takes place when standing. If Junior can keep the fight in the center, and makes sure to punish Cain for missed takedowns, then his chances of scoring the KO shot increase dramatically. If Cain can use his constant pressure and force Junior to continuously back up and keep circling with his back to the cage, Cain can turn in another dominant performance and cement himself as the #1 Heavyweight in the world. I honestly don’t know who to give the striking edge too as both dominate in different ranges of that aspect. I will call it even though because both have the ability to win this and none has a clear edge. Striking is even, no edge.
While I think everyone can acknowledge that Cain has the wrestling advantage, both free-range and clinch, we cannot ignore the fact that JDS has some pretty damn good offensive wrestling to go with his defensive skills. Against Shane Carwin, he landed two perfectly timed double legs ducking right under the punches of Carwin and driving through with authority. Granted 
this was against a very tired and beaten to hell Carwin but he has shown and ability to get it to the mat recently when he shot in on Mark Hunt with a great single leg driving through and finishing well. When JDS shoots in on you, he doesn’t just half-heartedly shoot but he will drive through hard and with his size and strength, it’s really hard to stop his takedowns. Once on top, JDS will use a very BJJ oriented style of control and prefers to hit his opponents hard as opposed to searching for subs. He can do some serious damage from top control and he has the ability to get the fight there should he actually attempt it. The problem is, we know Cain can do tons of damage from top control and his wrestling is top notch. He will shoot for takedowns, drag it down to the ground from the clinch, trip and throw you, and basically can get you down from anywhere. Just looking at his second JDS fight, you can tell he doesn’t mind missing takedowns as long as it advances his position in some way. Once on top, he is relentless with the ground and pound, ignoring submissions for the most part. He doesn’t always throw ultra-powerful shots but he will damn sure always be throwing and usually landing something on your head or body. The edge in wrestling most definitely goes to Cain although JDS can make things interesting in this department.
Grappling is very interesting when you throw in the fact that this is an MMA fight and not a grappling match. In pure submission grappling terms, JDS probably has an edge but with Cain’s wrestling and ground and pound, it’s not so clear. JDS bases his MMA grappling game mostly on staying up or getting back to his feet once taken down which he accomplished against every fighter who’s gotten him down. Despite Cain’s onslaught, JDS was able to repeatedly stop the takedown and get up once taken down. Cain is the exact same way if he is taken down and does not play guard when put on his back. So how do we judge who is the more effective grappler? Well by looking at their objectives, JDS would seem to be the more effective grappler. Cain, while incredibly effective obviously, still struggled mightily to get JDS down after the second round despite beating the fuck out of JDS. When he did get him down, JDS popped up right away. This is effective grappling and for this reason JDS will get the edge in my book. Edge in grappling goes to JDS.
Cardio and chin are two other factors that will play major roles in this fight. We know JDS has an iron chin and we know Cain has limitless cardio. We also know Cain does not have an iron chin by any means (although definitely not a glass-jaw) and JDS can get worn out badly. Both of these men know this as well so this fight is extremely compelling because of it. If Cain pressures JDS again and forces him to fight at a pace that he doesn’t want to, the balance shifts totally in favor of Cain. If JDS can hurt Cain early and force him back by touching his chin, JDS will have control of the fight. These two are so equal in so many ways but they are on the opposite ends of the spectrum here. However, that cancels any edge one may have so there is no edge in Cardio vs. Chin.
Before giving my conclusion on how this fight will go, I want to add a final thought. JDS should absolutely fuck with Cain’s head by attempting to take him down right off the bat. We have seen it work multiple times that the supposedly better wrestler is completely thrown off his game by being taken down (Gus vs. Jones, Fitch vs. Maia, and Penn vs. Fitch). JDS can most likely muscle through a double leg against Cain and damage him from on top, possibly depleting his gas tank and doing serious damage. It will also force Cain to worry about another weapon that JDS can successfully harm him with and would change the dynamic of the fight completely. Sadly, because of the confidence in his hands, I don’t think JDS will consider this but I truly hope he does.
The bottom line is that this fight is a complete toss-up in my opinion. Whoever can control what part of the cage this fight happens; either in the middle of the cage which favors JDS or the edge where it favors Cain will most likely win the fight. The problem is, Cain was able to force JDS back because he would not punish Cain for those missed takedowns. JDS seems to fully trust in his hands and chin and that will most likely be his downfall. As much as it pains me to lean in this direction, I am going to have to go with Cain on this one. I don’t think he will finish JDS and I do think JDS will look better this fight then in the second fight, I feel Cain will win a clear decision.
Final Prediction: Cain Velsaquez by Unanimous Decision.
-Ben can be reached at [email protected] or @agentbenten.
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