Contributor: Nolan Howell
Need to disappoint your family and gamble away some early Christmas present money? Trading in caviar and champagne for Spam and Pabst Blue Ribbon?
Welcome to Undercard Superstar’s guide to gambling, where you can get po’ in one night if you play your cards right! As your resident financial adviser in MMA gambling, it is my duty to inform you that nobody affiliated with Undercard Superstar is accountable for any losses. In fact, you probably brought it upon yourself for reading this. So, seriously, you’ve been warned.
This time around, we are looking at UFC 166 The card is full of big names and seems to be stacked from top to bottom. However, will that translate to any worthwhile betting value?
Fortunately for you, I am here to ensure that all your ex’s that live in Texas do not get their child support for a few months. Let’s talk cheddar.
All lines provided by Bovada.
Undercard Values
- Kyoji Horiguchi: -150 vs. Dustin Pague: +120
- Andre Fili: -225 vs. Jeremy Larsen: +175
- Sarah Kaufman: -225 vs. Jessica Eye: +175
- Adlan Amagov: -175 vs. TJ Waldburger: +145
- Tony Ferguson: -450 vs. Mike Rio: +325
- KJ Noons: -165 vs. George Sotiropoulos: +130
- Hector Lombard: -175 vs. Nate Marquardt: +145
- Tim Boetsch: -190 vs. CB Dollaway: +155
At first glance, there are some really solid values on this undercard. Many favorites here are reasonable enough to be parlayed, while some underdogs you can be confident enough to bet in or put in a little risk, high reward parlay of minimal cost.
Starting at the bottom, Horiguchi vs. Pague is a coin flip fight. While Horiguchi has run through Shooto, he is at a height disadvantage against the sleek grappler in Pague. Pague is also no slouch on his feet and can take it in addition to dishing it out. Look at Pague as a live dog here and maybe some prop bets because this will not last the distance.
Friend of Undercard Andre Fili has a little value as a not too huge favorite in a parlay, as do Sarah Kaufman, Adlan Amagov, KJ Noons, and Tim Boetsch. The most risky out of those names are probably Amagov and Noons, but both have matchups suited to their liking against grapplers with iffy chins.
One fight to look really closely at is the Hector Lombard vs. Nate Marquardt matchup. This is the first cut to welterweight for Lombard and he hasn’t had success against competition the caliber of Marquardt just yet (save for Palhares). However, counting on Marquardt to fight intelligently is iffy as well, but I like the underdog here as well.
Main Card Values
- John Dodson: -365 vs. Darrell Montague: +275
- Shawn Jordan: -200 vs. Gabriel Gonzaga: +160
- Daniel Cormier: -600 vs. Roy Nelson: +400
- Gilbert Melendez: -700 vs. Diego Sanchez: +450
- Cain Velasquez: -205 vs. Junior dos Santos: +165
The main card is pretty ugly. The only potential value here is Jordan as a favorite in a parlay in the main event. Look for some prop bets or do some live betting here for some fun, on the fly gambling.
However, the main event is compelling both from a matchup and gambling standpoint. Velasquez is a small enough favorite and was dominant enough in the last fight to be given heavy consideration in a parlay, while dos Santos is good for a singular bet.
Final Thoughts
While the main card is pretty brutal, there are some fun matchups from a gambling perspective. Also, make sure to look at live betting if you know a fighter’s capabilities from round to round for a fun experience. Keep the cost low there.
My budget: $29
My bets: $4 on Nate Marquardt and Dustin Pague to win $20. $4 on KJ Noons, Tim Boetsch, and Adlan Amagov to win $12. $5 on Junior dos Santos to win $8. $15 on live bets and prop bets.
Remember, folks, to never bet anything you can’t afford to lose.
-Nolan can be reached @nolanhowell.
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