Contributor: Ben Kohn
In the main event of Ultimate Fight Night 30 on Fox Sports 1, it’s a battle between former training partners that has many wondering if Joe Silva hates Mark Munoz. Let’s be realistic when looking at their current standings in the eyes of the fans. Lyoto is coming off a loss to Phil Davis that has many fans not even regarding the contentious split decision as a loss. I am not going to go so far as to ignore it but I do believe Lyoto won that fight. Before that fight, Lyoto was coming off the spectacular KO of Ryan Bader (excuse me while I cry for a moment) and the split decision (seriously how was that a split?) over Dan Henderson. Lyoto, despite being 35, shows no real signs of slowing down. His striking was on point in all three fights and his takedown defense was as impressive as ever. Munoz’s career path is coming off of an extremely impressive win over Tim Boetsch but before that, Munoz was out for a year from his absolute shellacking courtesy of Chris Weidman that Josh Rosenthal is still waiting to call the fight. In that time, Munoz ballooned up to 260 pounds and was dealing with injuries and depression. Granted all of this makes his win over Boetsch that much more impressive but it still matters in the long run. That aside, Munoz is a legit top ten Middleweight and has the power and ground and pound to put a hurting on anyone. Let’s see if Munoz has the ability to find a home for that power.
From my previous breakdowns of Machida, and from watching him over the years, we all know what his likely gameplan will be. Keep moving and waiting for his opponent to move before countering with hard punches. His parry to counter straight punch is really wonderful to behold and I absolutely love to watch Machida fight. Just the way he moves so deliberately with every step, always circling, parrying, and moving back with purpose. Davis knew that charging in with punches was not the way to go and landed kicks from the outside against Machida and shot a lot of takedowns that for the most part failed. On the two occasions he did get him down, he was unable to do much damage, despite being much larger than Lyoto. The truth is Lyoto can and will be able to outstrike Munoz on the feet. He is quicker with both his movement and hands, he is way too elusive for Munoz’s simple wrestle boxing striking attack to find his chin, and he has fought much better strikers as well and come out on top. On top of his experience, speed, and skill edges in striking, he also has really good power in his strikes. His counter straight punches can put out almost any man and his knees to the body are just brutal to behold. His mastery of 
distance and timing combined with the aforementioned attributes will make for a bad night on the feet if Munoz can’t get him down.
One of the reasons that I keep saying Munoz won’t be able to do anything to Machida on the feet is specifically because of his issues with timing. Munoz, while packing tons of power, is not very good at landing that power. He will rush in throwing hard shots without much of any setup which leaves him really open to counter shots. Just look at how he charges in against Boetsch in the beginning of the second round. If he does that against Machida, he will be put out like Bader was. Munoz’s boxing is really just centered on throwing hard shots with the intention of getting close enough to maybe try and clinch up. Machida won’t have any of that and Munoz will need to work on his entries and timing of his shots. One final issue for Munoz is that he is a relatively slow Middleweight. That basically seals it for Machida as having a massive edge in the striking.
Machida’s defensive wrestling is really good. He was able to ward off 8 of Davis’s 10 takedowns by forcing his hips away from Davis while using his hands to either get underhooks or collar ties/crossfacing Davis and doing all of this while continuing to circle and escape into the free range of the middle of the octagon. Machida’s circling is what is really interesting and something not enough fighters trying to defend the takedown do. If a fighter continues to back up, eventually they will be pushed against the cage which allows a wrestler to stall, get a better clinch position, or use the cage to work for other takedowns. By circling, Machida creates extra space in middle of the octagon where it is extremely hard to get the takedown against a guy like Machida. The other way which Machida wards off takedown attempts is through his use of the left knee to the gut. He landed a 
hard one against Davis and Davis actually turned away and Machida was able to grab his back. He also used that same knee to famously drop Tito Ortiz to the mat. Bottom line, Machida is incredibly hard to take down and before his fight with Davis; he had the highest takedown defense percentage in Light Heavyweight history. Munoz now has to figure out a way to take down the much better striker who was able to defend takedowns from much larger and stronger wrestlers at Light Heavyweight all while avoiding those big knees. Easy enough right?
Munoz, while having excellent wrestling credentials, is not a very good MMA wrestler. He succeeds on his takedowns a measly 27% of the time and is taken down much more then he should be with his credentials with a takedown defense rate of 58%. In fact, his 5 takedowns against Boetsch were the most he has ever scored in a fight. This bodes well for him though as at it shows that he is improving and actually scored on 50% of takedowns in that fight. While Boetsch’s takedown defense is not on the level of Machida’s, nor are their styles anything alike, it does give his fans hope that he can have a chance at getting Machida down. Those fans would be right if and only if he can get Machida against the cage. That’s where Munoz did his best work against Boetsch and that is also where Davis was able to finish his takedowns in his fight with Machida. Limiting Lyoto’s ability to maneuver is essential to winning this fight for Munoz. The problem is, I don’t think he will be able to implement this gameplan to any sort of real fight changing effect. Munoz suffers from timing issues in his wrestling just like in his standup and he doesn’t have the range or striking ability to back Lyoto up. I seriously think he will get frustrated and shoot desperation takedowns and that is going to get his guts kneed hard. Edge in wrestling goes to Machida.
Once on the ground though, if it gets there, Machida will need to get up as fast as he can because Munoz has the hardest ground and pound in the division. His donkey kong ground and pound are literally like sledgehammers hitting concrete and he will hit 
you anywhere that it will hurt. Legs, body, head, arms, whatever he can reach, he will hit. Machida on the other hand has some good grappling but like Aldo, it is used to get up from being on bottom. Against Davis though, he was not able to escape and was only trying to limit the damage taken on the ground. If Munoz can get Machida down, he will be able to do some serious damage and Machida’s chin has been tested before. Edge in the grappling goes to Munoz.
There are a few x-factors in this fight that may come into play. Both of these men are former training partners and they know what the other can do to them. Like Cerrone-Guillard, which turned out to be awesome, they may already know who is most likely going to win this fight. That can be a big factor that may play out in the fight. The other factor is the fact that Lyoto is dropping to Middleweight for the first time in his career. Will it affect his cardio and movement? I don’t know but from what I’ve heard, he doesn’t have to cut that much weight at all. Taking everything else into account, this fight is not hard to pick.
Final Prediction: Lyoto Machida by KO Round 1
-Ben can be reached at [email protected] or @agentbenten.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
