Contributor: Nolan Howell
Spending all your inheritance on having a mysterious crush take you back to Winchestertonfieldville, Iowa? You living high off the hog after a long Minor League pitching career and need a way to spend all of your cash fast?
Welcome to Undercard Superstar’s guide to gambling, where you can get po’ in one night if you play your cards right! As your resident financial adviser in MMA gambling, it is my duty to inform you that nobody affiliated with Undercard Superstar is accountable for any losses. In fact, you probably brought it upon yourself for reading this. So, seriously, you’ve been warned.
This time around, we are looking at UFC 167. The UFC welterweight strap is on the line between all-timer Georges St. Pierre and the bearded bad boy Johny Hendricks. Plus, a slew of relevant divisional battles and some bouts that could turn out to be just plain fun on paper.
Luckily for you, I am here to ensure that your money evaporates into thin air like the head of any opponent touched by the left hand of Johny Hendricks. Let’s talk cheddar.
All lines provided by Bovada.
Undercard Values
- Gian Villante: -350 vs. Cody Donovan: +265
- Sergio Pettis: -450 vs. Will Campuzano: +325
- Anthony Lapsley: +240 vs. Jason High: -310
- Erik Perez: -450 vs. Edwin Figueroa: +325
- Rick Story: -225 vs. Brian Ebersole: +175
- Ed Herman: +165 vs. Thales Leites: -205
- Donald Cerrone: -125 vs. Evan Dunham: -105
Lots of rightful favorites here make this a little hard to pick some good values. However, there are two or three fights here that pique my interest.
Looking at the Rick Story and Brian Ebersole fight, there is value in both men. Story is a convincing favorite in the minds of most. If you are one of those people who believe Story is too much for Ebersole, he is a very appealing option for a lower-tier favorite in a parlay. However, the opposite of the coin is that Story struggled against a similarly gritty veteran in Mike Pyle and that Ebersole might have some value as an underdog. I’d be more inclined to incorporate Story in a parlay with one or two others.
Thales Leites are -205 is a really good steal. Additionally, grabbing him inside the distance currently sits at +170. While Ed Herman is game, if he is facing the same Leites that pummeled a tough SOB in Tom Watson, this fight doesn’t look very promising for him. Leites should be good for a parlay as well.
Additionally, look at some of the prop bets. One I particularly like is Donald Cerrone inside the distance at +275. Cerrone could very well come back with a fire and Dunham may not be able to handle that if Cerrone puts in a performance like he did with guys at a similar level at lightweight like Dennis Siver was.
Main Card Values
- Tim Elliott: -160 vs. Ali Bagautinov: +130
- Josh Koscheck: Even vs. Tyron Woodley: -130
- Rory MacDonald: -400 vs. Robbie Lawler: +300
- Rashad Evans: -190 vs. Chael Sonnen: +155
- Georges St. Pierre: -240 vs. Johny Hendricks: +190
There are some good lines here. I like the Woodley line, considering Koscheck’s lackluster performances lately. Woodley has the edge pretty much everywhere this fight can go and he’s a small enough favorite to lay a chunk of change on him to earn a decent return. Additionally, Robbie Lawler at +300 isn’t a bad small bet to earn a big return because he’s Robbie Lawler and you never really know what will happen with him.
There are two that really catch my eye. I love Chael Sonnen at +155. Chael Sonnen’s only losses in the past three years have been to Anderson Silva and Jon Jones. Additionally, I have a Chael Sonnen rule that, when facing a fellow grinding wrestler, Sonnen wins. Rashad Evans hasn’t been a finisher in quite a while and struggling with a shot Hendo doesn’t give me much hope for him here, convincing me Sonnen will take this.
Finally, Georges St. Pierre at -240 is ridiculously awesome. Anywhere under the -300 range for him makes him ripe for a parlay as a lower-tier favorite. Additionally, take a look at that +325 GSP inside the distance line. Hendricks tires over time and his grappling in general doesn’t impress me, so St. Pierre might be able to yank on a submission against a power grappler.
Final Thoughts
With some money in the bank, there are some good bets to be made. I’ll likely sit light on actual picks and look at the methods of victory, as well as live betting.
My budget: $20.00
My bets: $5 on Sonnen, GSP, and Leites to win $21.56. $3.08 on GSP inside the distance to win $10.01. $11.92 on live betting.
Remember, folks, to never bet anything you can’t afford to lose.
-Nolan can be reached @nolanhowell.
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