Contributor: Ben Kohn
It’s almost time everyone and I for one am going completely bananas! The rematch is almost here! 5 rounds, UFC Middleweight title, the biggest rematch since Brock vs. Mir 2, live on PPV! UFC 168 is going to be fucking incredible and I cannot begin to convey how excited I am. Alright, calm down Ben…breathe. Ok so as you probably know, the Greatest of All Time, Anderson Silva was knocked out at UFC 162 by the undefeated Chris Weidman who decided to tell the MMA world to go fuck itself by putting Silva down…with striking. Seriously can you really still believe that? It’s insane thinking about it that Chris Weidman knocked Anderson Silva, the best MMA striker to date, out on the feet. Holy crap you guys, wow. Anyway let’s start analyzing before my brain explodes.
Neither Anderson nor Chris have fought since the title fight so we don’t exactly know if there are any differences or improvements in either of their games so all we have to go on is how their first fight went and their styles in general overall. As I already broke this fight down before now, there are only a few new things that I may be able to talk about and I apologize for that if it feels rehashed (for a more in depth breakdown on their techniques and skillsets, read my first article on the fight. Anderson as we all know is an incredible striker, both offensively and defensively, and that’s what makes him so dangerous. While he almost always prefers to counter-strike, he has the ability to lead and lead well he can. Against Forrest Griffin, he dropped him hard with a leaping right hook that put Forrest on queer street. Generally though, and Anderson fight is replete with lots of hard straight counters, lots of kicks to the knees, rolling with punches, and bobbing and weaving. Weidman fight aside, and even in the fight as well, Silva is a master of gauging the distance between himself and his opponents and using it to make his opponents miss over and over on the feet. This accomplishes multiple things, at the same time, tiring and discouraging his opponents. He discourages them even more with hard counter punches when they miss thus forcing them into a defensive shell. That’s when Anderson really turns things on. Watch his Yushin Okami fight or the second Sonnen fight. Anderson will counter as long as his opponents come forward, after taking a few minutes or so to find his range, until he makes them want no part of the standup anymore. Once his opponents shell up, Anderson has free reign to decimate them and he has quite a list of decimated opponents. Weidman on the other hand has already shown us that he won’t be backing up or shelling up from Silva and that’s where things get interesting.
Weidman’s abilities as a fighter have been underestimated by many, including myself a bit, as no one expected him to win the fight on the feet the way he did. Before actually discussing the striking of that fight, let’s talk about his actual skills on the feet. Weidman is primarily a boxer and will use kicks but much less frequently than his hands. We have already seen what he can do to a man on the feet before KOing Silva and his finish of Mark Munoz was absolutely devastating. Munoz landed 1 strike the entire fight, just 1. That is just incredible when you think about it. Despite his obviously bloated ranking, Munoz was ranked #3 at the time although many felt Weidman would win, very few predicted the shellacking he dished out. Despite how far he has come along in his standup, Weidman’s real bread and butter is, and most like always will be, his ground game. Weidman is massive for a Middleweight and he has excellent wrestling to go right along with it as well. Aside from his punishing ground and pound, which he displayed against Munoz and Silva, Weidman has done what most wrestlers who transition to MMA haven’t and that’s become a top notch submission grappler. This dual pronged threat on the ground of a serious wrestling and submission game is hell for his opponents. Not only is he likely to be able to take you down and keep you there, he can also beat the hell out of you or choke you out. Honestly, Weidman is probably the most well rounded fighter in the Middleweight division and the fact that he’s only 10 fights into his career is truly amazing. Weidman really is the present, and future, of the division.
First off, I will address something that has been bothering me since the first fight. As I watched the fight, I had no sense at all that Weidman was outstriking Silva and it seemed to be all over the place that Silva was being outstruck the whole time. Well I’ve rewatched the fight and focused my attention purely on the standup and what I found may undermine those ideas that Silva was outstruck. Before going on, I did not count grazing strikes that seemingly had no effect (from both sides) and I didn’t count pulled strikes either (although Weidman accounted for those mostly). With that out of the way, total strikes thrown on the feet only by both men (including the knockout left hand but not the ground and pound following) was 24 for Silva and 25 for Weidman. In round 1, Silva threw 18 while Weidman threw 14 but Silva landed 9 compared to Weidman’s 5. Percentage wise, that means Silva landed 50% of his strikes compared to 35% for Weidman in the first. The fight as a whole had Silva outlanding Weidman on the feet 14 to 9 with a percentage of 58% to 36%. These numbers are my own and I feel they accurately portray what was actually going on. Silva was not losing the fight on the feet but was not completely outstriking Weidman either. He landed extremely hard leg kicks that hurt Weidman yet Weidman landed the hardest strike of the fight besides the knockout blow (a left hook in the first). With that out of the way, I think, let’s break down not only their skills, but
what they need to do to win this rematch.
Anderson is a great counter striker but he also has to realize that doing what he did in the first fight will not fly this time. He cannot play the dancing game again and I think he knows that. I don’t know if he will completely cut the shit but he will definitely take this fight seriously. Anderson needs to work his excellent and powerful leg licks on Weidman this fight. He had consistent success with them due to his speed and length and Weidman really didn’t have any answer for them. The kicks will allow Anderson to open up Weidman’s upper body to attacks with both his legs and hands. Another thing Anderson needs to do is continue to use his dipping jab. Anderson is excellent at this and it’s a really effective technique because by dipping off to his right, Anderson is bringing his head offline which allows him to jab without being in danger of being caught with a counter jab. It also protects him from the cross counter right hand because his shoulder is protecting him so it’s a safer technique that can stop an opponent in their tracks (see Yushin Okami fight for examples). Silva also had some success in the clinch with Weidman although he didn’t capitalize on it for some reason (actually, he was likely afraid of the takedown). In the first round, Weidman clinched up with Silva and Silva had him completely open with double underhooks and Weidman’s arms sort of spread away from his body. I feel that Silva had the opportunity to land some hard knees to the body if he took the chance. One must keep in mind that Silva had been taken down immediately in the fight and took serious damage as well. In the second round, he easily stuffed Weidman and I believe that is a key to the way he will fight this time around. On the feet, Silva will need to employ a leg kick heavy strategy, similar to the early rounds of his fight with Maia. While obviously Weidman is a much better wrestler, the way Silva landed his kicks does not lead to believe that Weidman is fast enough to catch one and grab a takedown off of it. Aside from lots of leg kicks, Anderson will definitely need to use his movement smartly this time using the dipping jab until Weidman gets frustrated. If he can hurt Weidman’s lead leg, which would limit his movement and takedown ability, and hurt Weidman with his powerful jabs, Silva will open up opportunities to land harder combinations that would put him down. Silva’s keys to victory are leg kicks and the dipping jab in combination with lots of movement (as long as it’s not wasteful). Oh, he should also stay the hell away from the cage. I seriously think taking shots against the cage is dumb and pointless against a guy like Weidman.
Weidman has a serious advantage and disadvantage going into this fight. His advantage is that he knocked out Silva in the first fight. His disadvantage is that he knocked out Silva in the first fight. What I mean by that is that Weidman has no idea what gameplan Silva will be coming into the second fight with. Silva hasn’t lost in the UFC, and has never been KO’d either, and we just have no idea what he plans on doing in the rematch. I can imagine Weidman is incredibly confident in his abilities and he should be but the bottom line is that he should not rely on Anderson fighting the same way again. Weidman knows he’s the better wrestler and he can hurt Silva on the ground. While I will definitely say he should be smart and work to get it to the ground, and I believe he will, on the feet there is a path to victory. Weidman did a nice job avoiding many of Silva’s jabs in the first fight by moving back and leaning away. The problem is, that is a technique that opens him up to leg kicks at the end of the striking combination. In his first fight with Machida, Shogun used this incredibly effectively to damage the legs of Machida and limit his movement. Weidman needs to counter those leg kicks by using them to attempt to take down Silva or come back with a hard counter. If Weidman drives forward taking the kick, he can counter by using a hard straight right. Aside from possibly hurting Silva, this would take away one of Silva’s strongest weapons, the leg kick, thus allowing Weidman to have that much less to worry about and that much more to be confident about. The final advantage that Weidman has that I love is his doubling up of strikes on the same side. That type of attack is what directly led to the knockout in the first fight. Weidman doubling up on his right hand forced Silva to lean all the way to his left. He was then caught by the long left hook of Weidman, with his feet parallel and up on his toes, and his head took all the force of the blow. Not to mention he also leaned into the punch as well. Alright, the things Weidman would need to do on the feet to counter the above strategy I laid out for Silva are to 1) jam the leg kicks by pressing forward into them and countering with a hard straight right and 2) countering the jab by leaning away from it and catching it with his right hand or moving away from it. The problem is he might get caught with a leg kick but the dipping jab would generally not allow for this so he should be ok.
Despite getting knocked out, we all know Anderson is the superior striker technically and there’s no way you could convince me otherwise. But this is MMA and there’s more to fighting than the standup game. Weidman has the threat of the takedown and we all know how much that threat affects how a fighter will strike. Weidman should use this advantage to the fullest and open up opportunities on the feet by faking the shot and coming up with rear handed strikes or feinting on the feet/using his hands to get Silva to cover up and not defend the takedown. This fight will hinge on Weidman’s ability to mix it up and keep Silva from getting comfortable and this is not a fight where it will be about edges in the phases of combat. This fight will be about whom mixes it up better than the other and applies their gameplans best come fight night.
The grappling of this fight is something Silva should avoid at all costs. Yes he is incredible at controlling the distance on the ground to take minimal amounts of damage but the shots he took in the first round hurt him and he should not be taking them just to prove a point. Weidman is a monster once he’s on top of you and his powerful ground and pound, stifling control, and really good submission game are going to be really dangerous for Silva. Should he be taken down, rather than play his usual stalling tactics of holding his opponents in guard, Silva needs to immediately create space and attempt to stand up. If he is against the cage, he needs to implement Bisping’s wall walking strategy. He should keep his hands and forearms against the shoulders and neck of his opponent forcing them down his body while he shimmies up against the cage. Once he’s up, Silva’s knees will be a big deterrent against a reckless takedown attempt against the cage. In the middle of the cage, Silva’s strategy of tying up Weidman’s arms and snatching body triangle from the bottom will do him no good. He needs to create space by pushing Weidman’s hips back hard while framing against the shoulder/neck area. Performing a simple technical standup from there should accomplish two things; 1) allowing him to get back to his feet and 2) simultaneously creating lots of space between himself and Weidman. The question though is if Silva will try to get up or play the same waiting game he always does. It makes me nervous but Weidman will have a serious advantage there and Silva may not attempt to negate it until it’s too late.
The last thing that needs to be talked about is the chin of Silva and his mental state going into this fight. I am going to assume he’s gained some hunger from losing and wants to prove he is still the best in the world. There really is no reason not to and although taken with a grain of salt, all his training partners are saying he’s been a monster in the gym. The one thing that is a big question mark is how will his chin hold up. This can go one of two ways; 1) his chin was completely cracked and now he will be like Chuck Liddell after Rampage knocked him out for the title or 2) he will come back strong like Mark Hunt with the iron chin still intact. I am not going to make a prediction because there’s just no way to know for sure. However, if he comes back with an iron chin, as I am hoping, then Weidman is in for some trouble. I am of the belief that Weidman was definitely underestimate by Silva and he did take him lightly. The level of shenanigans Silva demonstrated in the fight was never seen before and I do believe he will come back with a vengeance. Bottom line is, I think this fight will be awesome sauce for 2 rounds but by the end of the second someone is going down. In an ironic twist, I believe that this fight will end in the same way as the first only with Anderson winning the fight.
Final Prediction: Anderson Silva by KO Round 2
-Ben can be reached @agentbenten or at [email protected].
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