Contributor: Ben Kohn
In the main event of Ultimate Fight Night 36, Lyoto “the Dragon” Machida will face off in a battle more epic than all 3 Lord of the Rings movies combined against Gegard “Fedor-esque in Fucks Given” Mousasi. This fight could be a #1 contender’s match and is extremely important for the UFC’s Middleweight division. Therefore, in typical UFC fashion, they decided to put it on a card no one will see. Bravo UFC on your excellent marketing skills in pushing your probable next contender.
Anywho….Machida in his last fight dropped down from the Light Heavyweight division (finally!) and boy did he make a big splash by punting Mark Munoz’s head to the Philippines. Meanwhile, somewhere very cold, Mousasi took on Alexander Gusta…oh wait…who’s Ilir Latifi and why’s he fighting Mousasi? What? Ugh this script sucks. So yea…Mousasis took on the, um, highly vaunted? Ilir Latifi and defeated by unanimous decision using a jab and taking virtually no damage the entire fight. Wait what?!? He blew out his knee and was out for almost a year? Fucking hell….alright, anyway, he’s back now and is finally fighting someone who he should be as such a highly touted fighter. Mousasi is someone who has been a fan favorite for a long time and many feel he can make a title run. With his excellent striking and slick submission grappling, those fans may indeed have a very good point.
At 35 years of age, the former UFC Light Heavyweight champion has dropped down to Middleweight and, as mentioned, made a big splash in his first round KO over Mark Munoz. Before making the drop, Machida has had a bit of a bumpy ride to say the least. After losing his title shot against Jones by second round submission, Machida starched Bader (ack, my heart!) in the second, won a split decision over Dan Henderson that should have been a unanimous one, and “lost” a split decision to Phil Davis. With his title hopes at Light Heavyweight slipping through his fingers, the consequent drop and KO win at Middleweight has Machida ready to go for another title shot against the winner of Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort. The only man standing in his way is Gegard Mousasi and that is a man who could pose a bit of a problem for Machida.
Gegard has always been something of a question mark for many MMA fans. While he is clearly a talented and exciting fighter with an excellent record, he has never really fought top flight competition and won. In fact, his last fight against someone considered a top fighter at the time was against King Mo Lawal for the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship. He lost the fight by unanimous decision and since then has gone 6-0-1 with a majority draw to Keith Jardine. Granted it was because he was deducted a point because of an illegal upkick but still…it was Keith Jardine in 2011. However, despite his lack of success against top competition, the guys he has faced have been pretty much decimated. His wins against Mike Kyle, Ovince St. Preux, and Ilir Latifi in his UFC debut make it clear that he is definitely far above the middle of the pack Light Heavyweights and now, dropping to Middleweight, he has a chance to prove himself against a former top Light Heavyweight and overall top fighter. The question that remains is how he will look after being out with an injury for so long and whether it will affect his performance much. We will have to assume it does not in order to compare and contrast how Machida’s and Mousasi’s styles will mesh together. Let’s get cracking and break down their respective styles and how they match up together.
Machida’s movement is a big component of his style and how he fights. Machida’s preferred area of combat takes place in the center of the octagon where he has the most maneuverability for both attacking and retreating. Although he prefers to work in the center, Machida is more than capable of pressuring or fighting while being pressured by his opponent. The problem is that since he usually has a striking and speed advantage on the feet; his retreats are either from rushes by his opponent of from takedown attempts. In his fight against Munoz, Machida was constantly pressing forward, patiently waiting for the opening. Mousasi on the other hand will always look to be the one pressing forward, especially in his last 3 fights. Against Latifi, he fought the entire fight forcing his back against the cage where Latifi couldn’t get away from him. Mousasi uses this to his advantage and was able to jab away at Latifi knowing he had nowhere to retreat. Mousasi’s tendency to press forward could play an interesting role in the fight as it would force Machida out of his comfort zone. Their stances could also play a role in the outcome of the fight, specifically with regard to Mousasi. While Machida’s stance at this point is already well 
known, hands by down by his chest/waist and linear in both positioning and movement, Mousasi’s may be new to many fight fans who haven’t seen him fight. Mousasi tends to hunch forward while fighting with his head far past his body and shoulders hunched and hands high when fighting a striker (Mike Kyle for instance) or lower when fighting a wrestler (Ilir Latifit). This style is similar to Alistair Overeem and it could pose a problem for him. Machida has already demonstrated how powerful his kicks are (Couture, Munoz) and that he has excellent speed, timing, and precision with them. The hunched forward posture can cause issues with blocking the front kick as it comes right up the middle with the head forward and if he’s not quick enough, he can be caught with it (as Browne did against a very winded Overeem). While Mousasi has a much better gas tank thank Overeem and better defensively by far, it is something that could be a factor in the fight.
Now that we’ve discussed stances movement patterns, let’s integrate their striking patterns into it as well. Machida is a counter striker while Mousasi tends to be the aggressor in his fights, pushing the action and usually firing off first. This will create opportunities for Machida to counter but considering the deceptive speed of Mousasi, despite his lackadaisical attitude in the cage, Machida may not have his usual speed advantage to help him out. Mousasi’s use of the jab to keep his opponents at a distance while backing up is usually followed by a powerful straight right hand behind it. Despite having a reputation as a kickboxer, Mousasi is much more dangerous in my eyes with his hands than the atypical kickboxer. His combination of constant forward pressure as well as his excellent hands and hard leg kicks make him a serious threat on the feet. Despite his substantial offensive arsenal, Mousasi is not the atypical offense only MMA fighter. He also has very good defense and rarely gets hit by his opponents. I especially enjoy his usage of the forearm block to stop incoming hooks although I’m not a fan of the way he covers up with his hands and forearms to block incoming straights he can’t avoid. His defense is not nearly as pretty as someone like Machida’s but it’s incredibly effective. Mousasi really is an unknown and dangerous opponent for Machida and if he can pressure him up against the fence, he can catch Machida coming forward like Jon Jones did. Let’s see how he stacks up to Machida’s style first though.
Machida is most likely the most patient fighter in the entire UFC when it comes to the standup. Machida’s timing on his strikes is excellent and, with his Shotokan background, he will wait entire fights for the perfect counter-punch. Unlike many counter-punchers though, he doesn’t just sit back and wait. He uses excellent feints and set-ups to draw his opponents in before countering them with his trademark counter straight, from either side. Against Ryan Bader, he knew that he would be fighting an overmatched opponent on the feet whose inexperience could be capitalized on if he patiently chipped away from the outside. Eventually, Bader was frustrated and threw a massive overhand right coming in which was blocked with a forearm block and counter beautifully for a one-punch KO. In his last fight with Munoz, Machida was the one pushing forward yet, the entire time he moves forward, he was still fighting with his weight over his back foot as he always does. He would constantly 
twitch his hips, feinting, baiting reactions from Munoz, eventually getting Munoz to flail on the reaction to the head kick after two body kicks and getting knocked out cold. With Machida, his attacks are simple yet incredibly versatile as he draws attacks out of his opponents rather than try to force openings by rushing in with offense. Despite the beauty and intelligence of his style, it does give off the impression of inactivity to uneducated judges and has cost him wins against Rampage and Phil Davis. The biggest issue defensively for Lyoto is when he throws his straight punches. He will drop his lead hand to his waist, most likely a cross-over from his Karate days, which cost him dearly against Jon Jones in their title fight. Jon was able to trap him against the cage and countered Machida’s straight left with a hard left hook to the jaw. Mousasi’s pressuring style and boxing abilities give him the ability to imitate that plan if he’s good enough to trap Machida and time him that well. That being said, Machida is among the best strikers to ever set foot in the UFC and not one to be trifled with on the feet. The problem is that goes for Mousasi as well. Normally when you’re outmatched on the feet, the plan is to take it to the ground. Well that isn’t always the best idea with these two and getting it there is another story entirely.
Machida has incredible takedown defense and has completely stuffed takedown attempts from larger, stronger, and better wrestlers than Mousasi. I’m going to make the not-so-bold claim that Mousasi will not be taking down Machida unless he snatches one up in a transition somehow or rocks him on the feet. Machida’s takedown defense stems from his excellent timing and movement about the cage. Mousasi on the other hand is not nearly as good at stuffing takedowns although, in recent fights, he most definitely has worked on his wrestling a lot as it has improved tremendously. Against OSP, he was able to score 4 takedowns of his own while stuffing 3/5 attempted by OSP. While it may not mean that much, he also stuffed Latifi’s takedowns with ease, despite the blown out knee. Machida’s offensive takedowns are vastly underrated and he has excellent trips that he can hit from the clinch and in transition from the striking. With regard to the clinch, neither of these guys are world beaters in there, although Machida’s trips and hard knees make him more of a threat in the clinch than Mousasi. The real bread and butter for Mousasi are with respect to his actual grappling skills and vicious ground and pound from on top.
Mousasi has two things that make him incredibly difficult to deal with on the ground. A good guard game with powerful upkicks on standing opponents and brutal ground and pound from on top. He actually knocked out Jacare Souza with an upkick in their fight (most likely his best victory to date although it was much earlier in Jacare’s career) and does real damage 
with them. From the guard, he’s a surprisingly active striker and will punch and elbow from the guard much more than most fighters will and he busted up Jardine and Mo Lawal badly from the guard. Mousasi’s guard passing skills seemed to be intertwined with his ground and pound as he will slam hard shots into his opponents face which will open up the ability to advance position and either continue the onslaught or lock in a submission. Against OSP, he used a constant flow of ground and pound which damaged OSP a lot but he was unable to get any submissions and was even caught in one at the end of the fight but Mousasi was safe and he knew it. Against Kyle, a striker with limited grappling, he took advantage of this, taking him down and using his ground and pound to secure the back control and lock in an RNC to finish the fight. Mousasi is not to be trifled with on the ground and while Machida is certainly more capable on the ground than OSP and Kyle, he should implement his usual style of getting up from the bottom as soon as he can against someone as dangerous as Mousasi.
This is a five round fight and Machida’s style can be disastrous in the hands of the wrong judges. Mousasi’s style can have this fight go one of two ways; Mousasi will have a Rampage like performance where he’s moving forward and winning rounds because of “octagon control” or Mousasi will actually attempt to punch Machida and we will see a technical battle between aggressor and counter-fighter. Personally I feel we will see the latter, a technical bout that will have Machida getting the better or most exchanges and winning the bout by a decision (Mousasi’s chin is iron I tell you, IRON!).
Final Prediction: Lyoto Machida by Unanimous Decision 49-46, 49-46, 48-47.
-Ben can be reached at [email protected] or @agentbenten.
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