Contributor: Nolan Howell
Bet all your money on Bruno Mars wearing a hat during his Super Bowl performance? Spend all your loot trying to teach Thiago Silva how to be a functioning chimpanzee?
Welcome to Undercard Superstar’s guide to gambling, where you can get po’ in one night if you play your cards right! As your resident financial adviser in MMA gambling, it is my duty to inform you that nobody affiliated with Undercard Superstar is accountable for any losses. In fact, you probably brought it upon yourself for reading this. So, seriously, you’ve been warned.
UFC Fight Night 36 features a very top heavy card that is littered with Brazilian and Russian prospects. The main event featured two seasoned strikers in Gegard Mousasi and Lyoto Machida.
Luckily for you, I’m here to ensure that you recoup the dent your annual Valentine’s budget for Vaseline and tissues put in your wallet. Let’s not talk lost love and crippling loneliness and let’s talk moolah.
All lines provided by Bovada and may change from the time of writing.
Undercard Values
- Zubair Tuhugov: -115 vs. Douglas De Andrade: -115
- Albert Tumenov: -205 vs. Ildemar Alcantara: +165
- Felipe Arantes: Even vs. Maximo Blanco: -130
- Yuri Alcantara: -285 vs. Wilson Reis: +225
- Francisco Trinaldo: -190 vs. Jesse Ronson: +155
- Ivan Jorge: -140 vs. Rodrigo Damm: +110
- Joe Proctor: -225 vs. Cristiano Marcello: +175
Very slim pickings on this undercard, given the relatively low name value and the new prospects. Some low risk favorites here that strike me are Proctor and Tumenov. The latter especially impresses me considering his pedigree out of the tough K Dojo camp and he should be used to make a quick buck here before he catches too many eyes. Though there are none available at the time of this writing, look for prop bets on Tumenov and Proctor winning inside the distance for some decent value. Proctor especially because, though not known as a finisher, Marcello’s standup is some of the worst and most predictable in the UFC.
Otherwise, not much underdog value in here. I could see Rodrigo Damm being worth a small bet and maybe throwing some change on a De Andrade inside the distance bet. Trinaldo is also worth a look as a small favorite in a parlay or a submission win.
Main Card Values
- Charles Oliveira: -650 vs. Andy Ogle: +425
- Viscardi Andrade: -140 vs. Nico Musoke: +110
- Erick Silva: -1000 vs. Takenori Sato: +600
- Ronaldo Souza: -550 vs. Francis Carmont: +375
- Lyoto Machida: -240 vs. Gegard Mousasi: +190
Two lines stand out to me here. I really like the Nico Musoke line after he battered Alessio Sakara in his last outing and I think he’s worth some cash or a small parlay. Additionally, I like Carmont at that value. There’s a chance Jacare can’t match the speed of Carmont on a takedown and the fight becomes a long, drawn out striking match that Carmont tends to win in ugly fashion. Look for a Carmont prop bet on a decision win as well.
For the main event, Mousasi may be worth looking at, considering his success against a K-1 level karateka in Kyotaro. Additionally, look for a prop bet on this fight going the distance, as both can often times be timid and this could be a very sour main event to close the night on as the two jockey for position standing.
Final Thoughts
Fight Night cards are generally hard to gamble on with prospects taking up the majority of the card. However, I’ll throw some chump change at this one and see what comes of it.
My bets: $10 on Damm, Musoke, and Tumenov to win $55.61, $10 on Carmont to win $37.50.
Remember, folks, to never bet anything you can’t afford to lose.
-Nolan can be reached @nolanhowell.
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