Contributor: Ben Kohn
In a rematch of one of the greatest slobberknockers MMA fight fans have ever had the pleasure, privilege, horror, and general “holy shit what the fuck is happening right now” of seeing, Dan Henderson and Shogun Rua are going to dust off their knees, iron chins, and atomic bombs for fists and go to battle for another five rounds as the main event of UFC Fight Night 38. While they put on one of the all-time great fights since MMA began, I want to say that I don’t like that this rematch was booked. Both of these men took years of each other’s lives and it’s incredibly unrealistic to assume they will have a repeat of their magical performance. Now that the disclaimer is out of the way, let’s get down to what adjustments these two need to make from their first fight in order win this rematch.
This article is going to focus almost entirely on their first fight and the adjustments they need to make in order to win the rematch. Only at the end will I address their more recent fights because I do think they matter in the grand scheme of things but, for the most part, they have not changed their styles at all. That’s my second disclaimer in two paragraphs, is that a record? Alright on to what’s been going on in their careers since their first fight.
Since UFC 139, a day fight that will not soon be forgotten, neither man has exhibited much success but Shogun has had some at least while Hendo has had absolutely none. Dan Henderson is currently on a three fight losing streak to Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, and Vitor Belfort respectively. Vitor was the one to finally finish Hendo by strikes, blasting the legendary chin of Henderson just 1:17 into the first round. Shogun in the meantime has had four fights, beating Brandon Vera and James Te 
Huna, by TKO and KO respectively, and losing a decision to Alexander Gustafsson and being submitted by Chael Sonnen. Despite both of them being fighters for over a decade (Shogun for 12 years and Henderson for 17 years), there is a massive age gap that separates them as Shogun is 32 and Henderson 11 years older at 43. Henderson’s three fight losing streak is a bit worrisome, especially with the vicious KO he recently suffered, and it concerns me a bit. Shogun on the other hand, in his last fight, looked far better than he has in years. He came in looking trim and fit, moving much better, and overall exhibited a flash of the old Shogun from when he won the title. IF that Shogun shows up to fight the old Hendo that has recently fought, it’s going to be a very interesting fight. But enough of that, let’s move on to see what happened in the first fight round by round and how each fighter, assuming they come in shape and ready to go like they were before, should make adjustments to take the victory the second time around.
The first three rounds of the first fight are the ones that, to me, stick out as the most important ones. Henderson was able to control the pace of the fight because of Shogun’s willingness to brawl and fight at Henderson’s pace rather than pushing the notoriously prone to gassing Hendo to fight at a faster clip. Despite Shogun having some successes in the first 3 rounds, most of the time Hendo was outstriking a man who should have had a distinct advantage in technical ability on the feet. Shogun had range attacks, power, and an iron chin (as was displayed) and he most definitely had the more varied attack. So what went wrong exactly and how was Hendo able to land a game-changing punch almost immediately? Well the answer lies in Shogun’s completely stationary positioning throughout the fight. What exactly do I mean by that? Well Shogun isn’t exactly known for his head movement but he definitely can move when he wants to. Henderson is extremely slow and plodding and relies on his opponents remaining in front of him in order to land that H-bomb. Usually he’ll have to try and corral fighters into the right hand but Shogun, for some inexplicable reason, decided to stand right in front of him and allow Dan to land the punishing right hand over and over again throughout the fight.
You can see from the images above how Shogun was not using lateral movement at all in the fight and was almost always to be found directly in front of Henderson for the first three rounds of the fight. This lack of any sort of footwork or movement to escape the path of Hendo’s attacks culminated in Shogun getting cracked a lot.
Here’s a perfect example of Shogun being blasted with a right hand by Henderson after just hanging out directly in front of him. Shogun is standing within punching range and gets cracked behind the ear/head and drops to a knee from the impact of it.
While this is definitely not ideal, there were ways he could have escaped from Hendo’s onslaughts relatively easily. While expecting Shogun, who is also known for having a small gas tank as well, to constantly move around may be a bit much, it isn’t too much to expect him to circle away when Hendo would charge forward recklessly right? Wrong.
Here we see Hendo throw a telegraphed right hand from way out of range and Shogun easily avoids it by moving back. Hendo continues plowing forward throwing a left hook that connects but without much power because of Hendo’s foot position. Shogun continues to just move further back coming up on the cage very quickly. Hendo re-establishes his footing into an orthodox stance and lands a hell of a right hand on the chin of Shogun. Shogun covers up and backs up against the cage where Hendo starts throwing uppercuts and hooks for all he’s worth. This sequence leads into a final issue that Shogun demonstrated in the first few rounds of the fight.
Hendo would absolutely tee off on Shogun whenever he was pressed against the cage. Shogun had a tendency to cover up and try and wait out the punching storm rather than get out of the way of them or stifle the barrage of punches. The fact is that the only reason Shogun was able to survive those three rounds is because of Dan’s inability to sustain the attack against him. Every bit of Dan’s effective offense complimented one another beautifully and Shogun’s constant mistakes in defending really cost him the fight as well many brain cells.
Before moving onto the final two rounds where Hendo had less gas than a Tesla Roadster, I do want to point out the successful attacks Shogun did display in their fight.
Dan Henderson stands with a very linear stance to maximize the power in his right hands. The drawback to this is that his left hook and jab are generally ineffective and lack enough to power to trouble many fighters he faces. Shogun had the most success in the fight countering these weak jabs and hooks with his right hand. While there were not many successes for Shogun, whenever Dan needed space or a break he would fling out the left. Shogun actually dropped Henderson with a right uppercut counter to a feinted jab in the fourth round.
The reason why Shogun was finally able to land the punch had a few components. First, Hendo was extremely tired at this point. Second, Hendo ducked down whenever he throws a left in order to dip away from the expected cross counter Shogun kept attempting. The problem is that it exposes him to the incredibly telegraphed, yet powerful, uppercut Shogun loves. Because Hendo was too tired to do anything about it though, he got blasted with the punch that completely changed the complexion of the fight. After this point, the fight was virtually all Shogun as Hendo was just too gassed out to really fight back. Shogun was landing punches on the feet immediately after the huge uppercut and after taking him down at the end of the round. Shogun also rode out the entire fifth round in top position landing tons of ground and pound from mount but he was unable to finish due to being so tired. The round most definitely should have been a 10-8 though and the fight should have ended in a draw but alas it did not. So in order to win the rematch, what do these two men need to do?
In Henderson’s last fight, he was knocked out for the first time in his career (although it was not a clean KO and was a TKO) but many feel that his chin may still be intact after that beatdown by Belfort. For his sake I hope so because he will need it in this fight. Shogun displayed in his fight with James Te Huna almost everything he needed to change in order to come out of this fight victorious. He was in shape and was moving around, not standing in front of Te Huna and continually using lateral movement. In the short fight, he also actively worked to circle away from the cage when his back was against the fence which is very good news. Finally, he was using his infamous leg kicks when he was at range with the powerful boxer. Against Henderson, who will need Shogun to stand still, this Shogun most definitely needs to show up to fight. The most important thing in my opinion though is that Shogun needs to move around. If he can force Dan to move and not present a stationary target, than he can avoid the infamous inside leg kick to right hand combination of Hendo.
Hendo, for his part, needs to display exactly what he did in the first fight with a bit more restraint. Shogun is just as tough as Hendo and expecting to finish him is not very smart. I understand chasing down the opponent and trying to finish but after their first fight, Hendo needs to be a bit more conservative when going for the kill. Aside from that, Hendo basically fought the perfect fight. He avoided grappling when he could and clinched when he was tired. Shogun on the other hand inexplicably did not work to grapple with Hendo in the earlier rounds. Hendo’s weak cardio and less than stellar game off his back should have been a go-to in their first fight and Shogun would be wise to try and tire Hendo out on the feet.
Overall, their first fight was only close because of Hendo’s inability to fight for so many rounds at that pace. Henderson basically dominated the fight before gassing and the Shogun that fought him then cannot show up again or it will be the same exact fight again. Shogun needs to fight exactly like he did against Te Huna. Never giving Hendo a stationary target is something Machida and Evans did in their fights while Belfort….well yea. Shogun can definitely win this and looking as good as he did in the fight with Te Huna gives me hope that he can actually beat Hendo the second time. For that reason I am picking Shogun to fight smart and show up in shape (yes I know how ridiculous that notion is).
Final Prediction: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua by TKO Round 3.
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