Contributor: Nolan Howell
Welcome to Undercard Superstar’s guide to gambling, where you can get po’ in one night if you play your cards right! As your resident financial guide, it is my responsibility to make sure lose enough money so you don’t lay money on that over/under 5 bunts called by Ned Yost prop bet . It is also my duty to inform you that Undercard Superstar and its partners are not responsible for your loss of money, pride, respect from your children and/or respective other, or any other valuables.
This time, we take a look at UFC 179: Aldo vs. Mendes II. Essentially a Brazilian Fight Night card with a title fight headliner, the value on cards like this can be iffy. However, with some gumption and knowledge, there are some close fights with money to be made.
Let’s sack some cash home.
All lines provided by Bovada. Lines subject to change depending on the time of writing.
Undercard Values:
- Fabricio Camoes: -120 vs. Tony Martin:-110
- Gilbert Burns: -385 vs. Christos Giagos: +290
- Andre Fili: -140 vs. Felipe Arantes: +110
- Wilson Reis: -185 vs. Scott Jorgensen: +150
- Yan Cabral: -700 vs. Naoyuki Kotani: +450
- Neil Magny: -225 vs. William Macario: +175
There isn’t a lot of underdog value here, but there are some parlayable slight favorites. Fabricio Camoes has been on the upper level of the regionals during his MMA career and has at least hung in there with UFC stalwarts. Against Tony Martin, an iffy midwest MMA product, I like him as a small favorite. Additionally, Andre Fili has more tools in his belt and the polish that comes from an elite camp that should get him the win over Felipe Arantes. Finally, Scott Jorgensen has looked ready to move on in his MMA career in his past few. Wilson Reis can match him standing and should be able to get a submission on the mat.
Main Card Values:
- Carlos Diego Ferreira: -225 vs. Beneil Dariush: +175
- Darren Elkins: -200 vs. Lucas Martins: +160
- Fabio Maldonado: -110 vs. Hans Stringer: -120
- Glover Teixeira: -350 vs. Phil Davis: +265
- Jose Aldo: -225 vs. Chad Mendes: +175
One underdog here sticks out like a sore thumb. Maybe the bookmakers see something everyone else doesn’t, but Hans Stringer seems like a live body for Fabio Maldonado to put a body-punching clinic on. Maldonado has great value, especially if he manages to dip into the + range. Phil Davis is a gutsy underdog bet, as he can always use his wrestling to ugly his way to a close decision. Aside from that, Darren Elkins is probably the most appealing favorite. Jose Aldo is worth a look for higher money bets.
Final Thoughts:
Surprising value here, as there are often squash matches designed to send the crowd home with a few cheers whenever the UFC goes international. Lots of close favorites and a few underdogs worth a look.
My Bets: $20 parlay on Camoes, Fili, and Maldonado to win $100.
Remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose!
-Nolan can be reached at [email protected]
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