Saturday night on Pay-Per-View reignites the legendary, historical boxing rivalry of Mexico vs. Puerto Rico. This chapter, however, is one of the biggest. The most prominent fighters each can boast face off in the middle of the ring: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Miguel Cotto. While the title implications aren’t enormous, the historical, cultural, and future ones are.
The winner most likely awaits a date with Gennady Golovkin, while the loser’s star dims rather significantly. Nolan and Luke break down some of the questions ahead of the HBO PPV.
What are the paths to victory for both fighters?
Nolan Howell: Cotto has been elite in the best of both worlds at various points of his career and he seems to truly putting offense and defense together, though it may be too late. Here, I think a more strategic fight is in order against an aggressive power puncher line Canelo. Canelo struggled against Mayweather and Trout with their movement and Cotto, while he doesn’t have the same style of defense, can get in range with Canelo and still be relatively safe to connect with his signature left hook. Cotto’s lead hand will have a big impact on this fight and could very easily win him the fight if Canelo plays fast and loose offensively.
However, just given intangibles, I believe this fight will be fought on the ropes and Canelo will be doing the pushing. With his size and speed, Canelo will be able to work Cotto against the ropes and blister the body. Cotto being the older fighter could wear down more easily and I think that will be the aim of the bigger, faster, and more powerful fighter. Look for Canelo to work the body against the ropes and efficiently use his power punches to the head to break Cotto down. Out of the two game plans, I would say Canelo has the better shot given intangibles with his youth and size as well as his technique, but Cotto is a wild card lately with a resurgence that no one expected of him.
Luke Irwin: Saul can watch his fight with Mayweather and do the exact opposite. No, but seriously, both of these guys have iron jaws, so looking for a killshot isn’t the path to victory here, no not even for Cotto, despite what he may think, so it’s going to be more strategical. Cotto has the better hands, but I think Canelo has the better feet. Saul needs to be patient, cut the ring, trap Cotto in the corners and batter him. For Cotto, his hands need to be at 110% and he’ll need to use Canelo’s much bigger body as a canvas to tear him up and look for a chance to land some critical shots to the head to stagger Saul.
Is this the fight that solidifies Canelo as the top star in boxing once Pacquiao and Mayweather are out the door?
Nolan Howell: It very well could be as this fight has both good name value and good storyline in Puerto Rico vs. Mexico. Cotto has some reach and a decent fanbase, as evidenced by his Puerto Rican Day Parade fights in New York. Canelo seems to be the next great hope for an internationally viable Mexican fighter and he has a promoter in Oscar De La Hoya who has been there and will know how to promote that. There is also a new guard vs. old guard storyline here that can be exploited.
One thing I think damaging this fight, which is probably the second biggest fight boxing can put on at this stage, is Ronda Rousey being upset by Holly Holm dominating the headlines. While boxing fans are beyond excited for this matchup, it doesn’t seem to have a lot of casual pop to it, at least here in the US. I think it will be able to overcome that, but it is a pretty large hurdle that got set up for combat sports a week after one of the biggest upsets in fighting.
Luke Irwin: Well, judging by the sheer volume of Canelo supporters at the weigh-ins, things appear to be trending in that direction, but his popularity hasn’t exploded like I thought it would. His brutally lackluster showing against Mayweather certainly didn’t help and turned off a couple casual fans I know to him. As Holly Holm showed us, when it’s your shot, you need to bring everything you have. Win, you’re on Good Morning America on Monday. Lose, you’re fighting Alfredo Angulo.
Canelo needs to win. He’s still very young, but losing your two biggest fights ever is something that takes a long time to rehabilitate. I still think GGG can be the biggest thing in boxing, but he’ll have to do it strictly by his style. Canelo has more tools on his side. Golovkin doesn’t have Canelo’s looks, youth, or legions of Mexican support. Canelo can be the biggest boxer in the world, but the greatest fighters have an “it” factor about them, an aura, and I’m not sure Alvarez truly has that. Time will tell.
Where does Cotto go from here, win or lose?
Nolan Howell: I’d personally like to see this be Cotto’s last fight regardless of a win or a loss. Just to go out on or near the top would be an excellent cap on a great career. Cotto can still compete and be a challenger, but I don’t really see a need for that long-term. I’m sure there will be a retirement fight planned, likely for Puerto Rico Day next year or the year after should he continue. Aside from a fight with GGG that would be very uncomfortable to watch when it comes around (though a good trampoline fight for GGG), there isn’t much more I want to see out of Cotto after this aside from maybe a ceremonial retirement bout in front of an electric New York crowd.
Luke Irwin: The possibility of a Golovkin-Canelo fight is much more probable than Golovkin-Cotto if either fighter wins, so it’s a possibility that this is Cotto’s last fight, despite his late-career resurgence. There would be nothing more poetic than Cotto leaving his gloves in the ring in his ring in his arena, Madison Square Garden, in front of his people if he fights one more time. If Cotto wins and he avoids GGG, that’s not going to reflect great on one of the warriors of the sport, and if he does accept it, he’s going to get annihilated. It’s almost a lose-lose for him. But the allure of a victorious Cotto taking on Gennady Golovkin in Cotto’s retirement match at MSG might be too tempting for him to ignore.
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