UFC Heavyweight Championship: Fabricio Werdum (c) (20-5-1) vs. Stipe Miocic (14-2): Man, is this one hard to call. Werdum has been damned close to bulletproof since his return to the UFC. He’s faced the most devestating puncher in the division and TKO’d him, he submitted Cain Velasquez, and he battered Travis Browne and Roy Nelson from pillar-to-post. But now he’s facing someone in Stipe Miocic with fantastic hands and the best gas tank of anybody Werdum has fought since his return. He’s not going to gas out like Werdum or Nelson did. Stipe has been in the championship rounds and is built to last. The only problem I see with Miocic is that he hasnt faced anyone near the submission acumen as Werdum. Arlovski, Hunt, JDS, and Fabio Maldonado are his last four fights, and there’s nary a threat of a sub there. Unlike Roy Nelson or Gabriel Gonzaga or Stefan Struve, Werdum isn’t too proud to flaunt his hands at the expense of his submission game. He’s submitted some of the best of all time. I think this goes one of two ways: either Werdum goes for and gets the submission early, or we get a five-round slugfest with Miocic’s wrestling, strength, and wind stifling Werdum’s submission game. I’ll go with the latter. Werdum via SD.
Middleweight Bout: Ronaldo Souza (22-4) vs. Vitor Belfort (25-11): Vitor hasn’t KO’d anyone who isn’t the corpse of Dan Henderson in three years. In the meantime, I had Jacare’s fight for him in his loss to Yoel Romero, which means aside from that, he hasn’t lost since 2011. Vitor isn’t susceptible to submissions, but Jacare is going to be on the hunt. Souza via R3 Submission.
140-lb Catchweight Bout: Cris Justino (15-1) vs. Leslie Smith (8-6-1): All the credit in the world to Leslie Smith, and she’s one of my favorite fighters, but she’s a fun fighter because she has no power, so her fights draw out into three or five-round slugfests. However, in this instance…no. Justino via R1 KO.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Corey Anderson (8-1) vs. Mauricio Rua (23-10): Against ever last inch of my better judgment, I think Shogun lands a hail mary combination and gets, perhaps, his last win in the UFC. Anderson doesn’t do any one thing particularly well and can be put on the canvas with strikes, so, ugh, alright Shogun. Rua via R2 TKO.
Welterweight Bout: Bryan Barberena (11-3) vs. Warlley Alves (10-0): Props to Barberena for disposing of Sage Northcutt with the weakest looking arm-triangle in history, but he’s a little out of his depth here. I don’t think he’s as big of an underdog as Vegas thinks, but Alves is the better fighter. Alves via UD.
Welterweight Bout: Demian Maia (22-6) vs. Matt Brown (20-13): I know Maia’s skills are fantastic, his gas tank is obscene, his striking has improved leaps and bounds, and he’s fighting in front of a rabid crowd…but I can’t count out Matt Brown. I can’t pick against him, it’s cost me too many times before. He’s the toughest, grittiest fighter maybe on the planet, and I’m going with the upset of him griming out a win somehow. Brown via R3 TKO.
Middleweight Bout: Nate Marquardt (34-15-2) vs. Thiago Santos (12-3): Boy, do I not trust Marquardt’s chin anymore whatsoever. He’s a survivor, but I think this is one of those bouts that makes me really sad. Santos via R1 TKO.
Bantamweight Bout: John Lineker (26-7) vs. Rob Font (12-1): This is going to be a goddamned barnburner and I can’t wait. Two guys who are going to throw hands until someone falls. If that’s the case, even at bantamweight, I can’t pick against Lineker’s hands. Lineker via R1 KO.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-7) vs. Patrick Cummins (8-3): Nogueira has nothing left in the tank, just nothing. Cummins isn’t anything terrifically special, but I’m trusting most live bodies over either Nog brother these days. Cummins via R3 TKO.
Lightweight Bout: Francisco Trinaldo (19-4) vs. Yancy Medeiros (12-3): A tight bout right here. Trinaldo has put together a very, very quiet five-fight winning streak, but Medeiros has only lost to top-flight fighters. His last fight, he benefitted from a split-decision, so I’m gonna predict it swings the other way this time. Trinaldo via UD.
Welterweight Bout: Luan Chagas (14-1) vs. Sergio Moraes (10-2): Moraes via UD.
Featherweight Bout: Renato Carneiro (9-0-1) vs. Zubaira Tukhugov (18-3): Tukhogov via SD.
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