Twelve months is a long time in hockey. Do you remember a year ago? Blue Jackets fans were more optimistic than normal. After all, their favorite team was fresh off its second playoff appearance. Things had to be good, right? And then, in summer’s waning days, normal training camp excitement derailed completely. Contract talks were not going well between Columbus and their top center, Ryan Johansen.
ICYMI: Puck-rakers: #CBJ president John Davidson blasts contract talks with Johansen's agent as "extortion" http://t.co/T8FDsHukD6 #goodlink
— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) September 17, 2014
It’s strange to think about now. A player coming off a breakout performance was an uncertainty. Little did we know, we were in for a full month of that uncertainty before the sides reached a new deal.
In the year between “extortion” and today, Ryan Johansen solidified his role as the top offensive weapon on the Blue Jackets, and was one of two players to represent the hometown team in the NHL All Star Game. It was a year of downs for the Jackets, and Johansen helped buoy hope (at least a little). Just how good was his season? And how can Johansen improve himself going forward?
Johansen the Point Machine
Ryan Johansen’s greatest achievement last season was his evolution into a point-scoring menace. The Columbus center finished the year with 71 points in his 82 games. He was one of only 19 players in the NHL to finish with at least 70. This is remarkable given the low scoring rate league-wide, and the lack of high individual finishers (the first full season without a 90 point player since 1967-68). Put in Columbus perspective, Johansen is one of four Blue Jackets in franchise history to hit the 70 point mark in a single season. (The others: Nash in 08-09, Whitney in 02-03, and Foligno last season).
26 of Johansen’s points came on the powerplay. That total put him 10th in league powerplay scoring, and 11th in powerplay scoring per 60 minutes. Those numbers put Johansen in company with the likes of Zetterberg, Crosby, and Ovechkin (at least for one year).
Johansen’s partner in crime for all this? Columbus’ captain-to-be Nick Foligno. When on ice together in all situations, the 19-71 combo had a crazy 65% GF% (and it’s still an impressive 55% at even strength). Their combined power play prowess fueled the high point totals.
The Room for Defensive Improvement
Of course, there’s more to the story than just total points. And it’s here that we see Johansen’s shortcomings and where he might improve. Johansen doesn’t look so great when examining shot differential metrics. War on Ice shows the center above his team in Relative CF% for the past two years, albeit only slightly in 14-15. However, breaking apart the raw information shows defensive deficiencies. HERO charts (from Domenic Galamini) highlight Johansen’s inability to stop shots against (landing him in 4th liner territory).
Last year alone, Johansen’s CA/60 was in the range of Jared Boll, a far cry from the kind of responsible center the team would like. Where lower is better, Johansen at 58.61, Boll at 58.64, and Dubinsky at 50.83 doesn’t reflect well on #19.
There are caveats to this. Johansen played the entire year on the oft-injured Jackets, meaning he had plenty of time without top teammates around. However, top linemate Foligno didn’t suffer the fate the center saw. Furthermore, Johansen had some of the most favorable offensive zone starts on the team.
Unfortunately, this isn’t out of character from recent seasons either. In 2012-13, Johansen finished worst on the team (CA/60 at 58.36). In 2013-14, he improved slightly toward the middle of the pack (52.99).
Early in his career, Johansen took flak for his defensive shortcomings. We were told he’d improved this part of his game. It’s not obvious from these findings that he’s actually better yet.
The Center’s Season to Come
The good news in all this: Ryan Johansen is only 23. He isn’t in the clear decline part of the age curve, so there is room to make defensive improvements. Maybe that means more attention to positioning. Maybe that means more work to win battles, or limit opposing zone entries. By all accounts, Johansen is an extremely gifted athlete, so there is no lack for the physical ability to improve.
In the meantime, Johansen’s current skills should help to keep his value high for the Blue Jackets. If he continues as a powerplay force, the Jackets have a clear advantage when up a skater. His shootout mastery will also add value (albeit with a different overtime system this year).
In the very worst case scenario, a good linemate and sensible deployment should keep Johansen in the positive. Perhaps that means more time with Nick Foligno, or the excellent newcomer Brandon Saad. Both wingers have been very good over their careers and should help the top scoring line prosper.
There will be no wait for Johansen this year, no contract dispute to stall his arrival to camp. There is still uncertainty about the player, whether he can elevate to true elite center status, or remain “only” a great scorer. That’s part of the excitement for the new year, to see the next chapter of the Blue Jackets, and to see if #19 can lead the charge.
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