Let’s talk about Ryan Johansen. You know, according to a growing public narrative, I’m speaking of Ryan “lazy, no-good, low-effort, disinterested slug” Johansen. A guy who probably isn’t any of those things, or is doing enough for none of them to matter all that much.
A common thread has been growing in the past little while among authors I follow. Our blog’s own Alison (on the podcast, around 31:00 in Ep. 32), Jen LC on Twitter, and Ryan Lambert on Puck Daddy have shared different phrasing of the same idea.
The salient point (as I read it): we can probably do better in appreciating what skill players do.
The Semin-al Example
The topic of valuing skill versus the visible effort of “lesser” players has picked up thanks to the Alex Semin situation. The Canadiens waived the winger, nobody claimed him on waivers, and the contract was terminated. Off to the KHL!
This move happened in spite of Semin’s scoring ability. Yes I’m talking about that Alex Semin, the one having the worst year of his career in per game scoring. As of this writing, he’s also 128th among forwards in 5v5 points per 60 minutes played (this season only, 100 minute minimum). If talent were evenly split among all 30 clubs, NHL teams would only have 4 or 5 forwards scoring at this rate. Even ignoring all the shot differential stuff (where Semin was still a star), the Russian leaves the NHL apparently because of inconsistency. That Canadian Press/TSN article describes Semin as a “colossal disappointment” for his final NHL team.
Maybe there’s more here than we’re told. Maybe Semin is a terrible teammate, and ditching him is reasonable for everyone in the locker room. Even so, replacing his kind of production with that kind of cost will be tough for Montreal (a one year, $1.1M deal is very team-friendly).
Scoring in Columbus
Which brings us to Johansen. He’s missed games due to illness, moved to the wing, was the target of conditioning critiques under the new head coach, and now trade rumors have picked up. Both TSN’s Darren Dreger and the Dispatch’s Aaron Portzline suggest that the CBJ are listening, or that Johansen is “in play.” ESPN’s John Buccigross opined on the situation via Twitter last week.
Can't imagine Ryan Johansen finishing year in Columbus. Head doesn't seem there. Nashville would be good fit. Other conference. C for D deal
— BucciOT.Com (@Buccigross) December 5, 2015
And yet we can take the same tact with Johansen as we did with Semin: Johansen’s 5v5 points per 60 minutes ranks 88th among forwards. And we can do the same division: among 30 NHL teams, there is only an average of only 2 or 3 forwards at that level of scoring per roster. Going a step forward and looking at powerplay contribution, Johansen is the 34th best forward in the league (lowering the threshold to 50 minutes). He’s a once-per-franchise kind of player.
Johansen, however, is being dogged by ideas of inconsistency, low mental effort, and physical inability. Somehow, in spite of all the negatives, when you look at the data, Johansen is a clear first line, even strength, scoring talent. And he’s superb on the powerplay.
In an era of low scoring, the total goals and points won’t be what they once were. You can thank goalies for that (look at the SV% column on Hockey-Reference). Accordingly, we need to shift our expectations for skill or scoring forwards. Johansen remains among the best in the NHL in the here-and-now: a first line scorer by rate stats, per game stats, and even all-situation totals (50th among all skaters as of this writing). He’s also 23, meaning he’s unlikely to feel the icy grip of age effects soon (either in scoring or shot metrics). That’s the kind of core player teams build around, and for good reason.
To be fair, there’s more to the issue here than just scoring. In this space, I’ve already commented on Johansen’s defensive limitations. He doesn’t drive shot differential on his own, so it’s fair to criticize certain aspects of his game. However, it is the height of his scoring that makes any Johansen rumors so concerning.
The Blue Jackets have suffered this year, there is no doubt. Removing a top-tier scoring threat seems an odd way to address team-wide problems, particularly in a time when scoring is so difficult. Ryan Johansen may or may not be a sloth. At worst, he’s a supremely talented sloth, already performing at top line levels in important ways. Asking for much more is tricky, and rejecting such scoring might come with minimal returns.
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